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Forecast

January 29, 2019/pm report

January 29, 2019

Summary:  Mostly cloudy conditions continue over central California this afternoon.  Doppler radar continues to indicate precipitation is falling from clouds but not necessarily reaching the ground, mainly over Kern and Tulare Counties.  Light showers are definitely occurring over the higher elevations of the Kern County mountains and the Tulare County portion of the southern Sierra Nevada.

 

A disorganized cloud mass will continue to move over our region through Wednesday then a compact little low pressure system will actually skirt the northern and central California coast later Wednesday night and Thursday for an increasing chance of showers.  Short term models are still indicating this system could potentially drop .25 to .33 over the west side and even possibly Kern County.  Most models are indicating there will be very little precipitation over the Sierra Nevada.  The low will weaken and move inland through extreme northern Baja Thursday night and early Friday.

 

Models this afternoon are still very bullish on the potential for a dynamic storm system which will be approaching the coast Friday.  At this juncture, it appears this storm will be capable of several weather parameters, among them: heavy rain, high winds, and heavy snow in the mountains.  It’s still just Tuesday but already it appears upwards of an inch of rain will be possible Friday night through Saturday night along the eastern rim of the valley with lesser amounts away from the Sierra Nevada foothills.  Rain shadows will play a big part as they do with strong winter storms.

 

A second low will drop southward from the British Columbia coast and into northern California Saturday night then into central California Sunday through Monday, maintaining periods of showers and below average temperatures.  Even though the winds late Monday through Tuesday will be out of the north aloft, there is no connection to arctic air masses so no cold weather problems are anticipated at this time.

 

It still looks like we will begin to dry out Tuesday as the eastern Pacific high begins to migrate eastward, filling in behind the cold trough of low pressure.  For now, Tuesday through Friday of next week appear dry.  After that, there’s no definitive pattern showing up on modeling.

 

Forecast: Cloudy tonight.  Mostly cloudy Wednesday.  Showers spreading in from the west late Wednesday night and continuing Thursday.  Becoming partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday morning.  Increasing cloudiness Friday afternoon.  Rain becoming likely by Friday evening, continuing through Saturday.  Showers Saturday night and at times through Monday.  A chance of showers Monday night. partly cloudy Tuesday.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday night.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 45/65/50/59 Reedley 46/66/50/61 Dinuba 44/65/49/60
Porterville 45/66/50/61 Lindsay 44/66/49/61 Delano 46/67/51/61
Bakersfield 49/67/52/60 Taft 50/67/52/61 Arvin 45/68/50/60
Lamont 46/68/50/60 Pixley 45/66/50/61 Tulare 44/65/49/60
Woodlake 46/66/48/62 Hanford 47/65/51/62 Orosi 45/66/49/59

 

Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 8 MPH through Thursday night with locally stronger gusts Thursday and Thursday evening.  By Friday afternoon, winds will begin to increase out of the east to southeast at 15 to 25 MPH with stronger gusts.  Winds Friday night and Saturday along the west side will increase to 15 ot 35 MPH with stronger gusts.  There is some potential for a high wind event over the valley portion of Kern County.  As usual, the potential for the strongest winds will be near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains at places like where Interstate 5 and Highway 99 come together and also at the approach to the Grapevine.  Local gusts in excess of 50 MPH will be possible in these areas.  These winds could reach as far north as Bakersfield.  Since we’re still a few days out, much can be tweaked between now and then, but for now the potential exists.

 

Rain:  This will be an active weak as far as precipitation is concerned.  The first rain event will arrive later Wednesday night, continuing Thursday.  This will be a coastal teaser as this is a compact little low which will almost be right on the coastline as it moves southeastward towards southern California.  The chance of significant precipitation east of Highway 99 is low, but the closer you get to the Coast Range, or the valley portion of Kern County, as much as .25 to even .33 cannot be ruled out with possibly no more than .10 or so once you get into eastern Fresno and Tulare Counties.  A short period of dry weather will arrive Thursday night, continuing for the first half of the day Friday.  Rain will begin to spread in from the west Friday afternoon with periods of rain Friday night through Saturday.  There will be rain shadows involved along the west side, and especially in Kern County, due to strong, gusty winds, but the potential for upwards of an inch is possible along the east side of the valley.  Generally speaking, the heavier amounts will be closer to the Sierra Nevada foothills.  A second low will drop out of the north/northwest Sunday through Monday, continuing the very unsettled weather.  It appears the eastern Pacific high will begin to make inroads into the west Tuesday for at least a few days of dry weather.

 

Frost Discussion:  All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each morning through next Tuesday.  Even though a colder air mass will invade the region Sunday and Monday, it will not be anything with origins that would have arctic air associated with it.  It appears mid to upper 30s are likely from Tuesday morning through Thursday or Friday of next week.

Next report: Wednesday morning/January 30