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Forecast

January 30, 2019/report

January 30, 2019

Summary: This will be the last quiet weather day this week as a very temporary ridge of high pressure moves through.  Currently, there is a low pressure system roughly 400 miles off the northern California coast which will become what we call a “coastal hugger”.  In other words, the center of circulation will be no more than 50 to 100 miles off shore as it moves southeastward off the central California coast on Thursday.  This may be one of those rare situations where the west side of the valley and Kern County receive the lion’s share of the precipitation.  In fact, the Sierra Nevada may get very little rain or snow from this system due to the compactness of the low.  Even so, some of the precipitation estimates go up to .50 in some locations.

 

This will be a fast mover as the low races southeastward along the southern California coast Thursday night then inland through northern Baja Friday.  There will be a temporary lull in the precipitation action Thursday night and Friday morning.  A powerful low both at the surface and aloft will be just off the northern California coast Friday night.  it appears the associated cold front will move through the valley Saturday morning with potentially heavy precipitation.  We will be dealing with strong, gusty winds in some areas which, no doubt, will cause rain shadows along the west side and in Kern County.  However, some locations on the east side north of Kern County could potentially receive upwards of an inch of rain from Friday afternoon through Saturday evening.

 

Two to three feet of new snow is possible above 8,000 feet in the Sierra Nevada.  A second trough, which is colder, will drop  over northern California Sunday through Monday, continuing the chance of periods of showers. It still appears that by Tuesday the eastern Pacific high will shift to the east into California, returning a dry pattern for a while.  The flow behind that last system Monday will be out of the north/northwest which will maintain below average temperatures through midweek.

 

Forecast: Variable cloudiness today. Increasing cloudiness tonight.  Rain will arrive on the west side of the valley later tonight, continuing at times Thursday.  Heaviest rain will be along the west side and in Kern County.  Mostly cloudy Thursday night and Friday morning.  The chance of rain will again increase later Friday afternoon, continuing through Saturday morning.  Locally  heavy rain is possible north of Kern County and mainly along the east side.  Showers with a small chance of isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening.  Showers tapering off Saturday night but then a chance of showers will increase again Sunday through Monday.  A small chance of showers Monday night, becoming partly cloudy Tuesday through Wednesday with areas of night and morning fog.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 66/49/60/44/60 Reedley 66/50/61/46/61 Dinuba 65/48/60/45/59
Porterville 67/50/61/45/61 Lindsay 67/48/61/45/61 Delano 67/50/62/46/62
Bakersfield 68/53/60/45/64 Taft 68/53/60/47/64 Arvin 68/48/62/47/63
Lamont 67/51/60/45/63 Pixley 67/49/62/44/62 Tulare 65/48/60/45/60
Woodlake 65/49/61/44/61 Hanford 67/50/61/47/61 Orosi 65/47/61/45/59

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

Rain likely

48/59

Sunday

Showers likely

41/59

Monday

Chance of showers

42/58

Tuesday

Patchy fog/partly cloudy

39/57

Wednesday

Patchy fog/partly cloudy

38/60

 

Two Week Outlook:  February 5 through February 11:  This model is not as strong on the chance of precipitation for central California.  It does call for above average rain for southern California and the Desert Southwest with no more than an even chance of rain for northern and central California.  Temperatures should range near to marginally below average.

 

February:  This model indicates the eastern Pacific high will be the most dominant feature during the month of February.  There will be the usual exceptions, but overall this would result in above average temperatures and drier than average precipitation over much of the west and colder than average temperatures east of the Rockies.

 

February, March, April:  At least this  model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation.  There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 8 MPH today with periods of near calm conditions.  Later tonight and Thursday, winds will be generally out of the east to southeast at 5 to 15 MPH.  winds Thursday night and Friday morning will generally be light.  Winds Friday afternoon through satuaraday morning will be out of the southeast at 15 to 25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH possible along the west side and locally elsewhere.  The chance for a strong wind event in Kern County appears less now, although I will not eliminate that possibility.  Yesterday’s  models had the center of the low near the central coast Friday night and Saturday morning.  Models this morning show it off the northern California coast.  This helps, but does not completely eliminate the possibility.  I’ll make adjustments to the forecast as needed.

 

Rain:  This will be the last quiet weather day for a while.  A compact coastal hugger will move down the central coast later tonight and Thursday.  The greatest potential for significant precipitation will be along the west side of the valley and in Kern County, for a change.  Basically, the farther east you go across the valley, the lesser the chance of significant rain.  It is possible that .25 to .50 could fall along the west side and in Kern County with lesser amounts elsewhere.  Dry weather will return Thursday night through Friday morning then a much stronger low will approach the northern California coast, spreading widespread rain and  higher elevation snow across central California.  Heaviest rain is likely to be late Friday night or Saturday morning when the cold front moves through.  The rain will turn to showers Saturday afternoon with a small chance of isolated thunderstorms.  It looks like showers will taper off for a time Saturday night but the risk of showers will increase again Sunday as a second, colder low move into northern California, keeping the chance of showers in the forecast through Monday.  From Friday night through Saturday night, some locations north of Kern County on the east side of the valley could pick up upwards of an inch of rain.  Considerably less can be expected in Kern County and along the west side due to rain shadows.  Dry weather will return later Monday night and will last for several days.

Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night for at least the next week.

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.  Kern, upper 40s to the lower 50s.

Humidity: Hanford: 60%/100%, Bakersfield: 50%/95%

Actual Humidity January 29, 2019: Delano, NA  Porterville, 98%/67%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 0%  Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 0%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .36, Parlier .44, Blackwell .45, Lindcove .40, Arvin .51, Orange Cove .44, Porterville .37, Delano .43 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available. 

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 51, Blackwell 53, Lindcove, 56, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 50, Delano 49

 

Record Temperatures: 74/25. Average Temperatures: 58/37

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1248 -450

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for January so far: 49.8 +4.7

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 4.42 season. or -1.09, Month to Date: 2.09 +.05

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  2.27, or -.76.  Month to Date: .97 -.10

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 604,  Parlier, 610 ,  Arvin, 533 Shafter, 614  Stratford, 607, Delano 612, Lindcove, 896, Porterville, 1221

Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 7:02 am  Sunset: 5:23 pm. Hours of Daylight:  10:17

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  66 /  46 /    T /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  64 /  48 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  64 /  44 /    T /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  62 /  40 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  65 /  49 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  64 /  44 /    M /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1556 /  63 /  44 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  64 /  41 /    T /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  66 /  43 /    T /

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.01    7.92   109    3.99    55     7.28    14.06

MODESTO                       0.04    6.39    98    3.55    55     6.51    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    6.12   102    2.29    38     6.01    12.50

MADERA                           T    4.58    75    1.55    25     6.08    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    4.42    80    1.64    30     5.51    11.50

HANFORD                          T    3.33    65    1.78    35     5.09    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    2.27    75    1.10    36     3.03     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    3.46   132    0.20     8     2.62     5.18

SALINAS                          T    5.80    92    2.51    40     6.33    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    6.36   102    2.30    37     6.22    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    6.41    97    2.02    31     6.60    13.95

 

 

Next report:  Wednesday afternoon/January 30