January 30, 2019
Summary: The center of circulation of a low which will skirt just off shore on its southward journey is roughly 300 miles west of San Francisco. This will be a classic coastal hugger with the center of circulation only being 50 to 100 miles off shore as it heads southeastward along the central coast late tonight and Thursday morning. Heaviest precipitation from this system is likely to be over the southwestern corner of the valley and, to a lesser extent, the west side. Once you get further east towards Fresno and down to Porterville, only light amounts of precipitation are expected. The showers will taper off later Thursday afternoon as the low scoots southeastward off the southern California coast Thursday evening. The low will weaken as it moves into northern Baja and points eastward. This system will clear the way for a potent Pacific storm.
By Friday evening, the center of the low, both at the surface and aloft, will be just off the northern California coast. This storm will have significant jet stream energy aloft and also significant differences in pressure between northern and southern California for strong, gusty, southeast winds Friday night and Saturday morning. This system will have considerable subtropical moisture feeding into the southern flank of the storm. Combine that with orographic lift along the Sierra Nevada, and two feet plus of snow is expected above 8,000 feet. As much as an inch of rain could possibly fall on the east side of the valley north of Kern County. The west side and Kern County will be dealing with a rain shadow, as is typical with strong Pacific storms.
The rain will turn to showers Saturday afternoon. A few isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Showers will taper off for a time Saturday night then a cold trough will drop southward from just off the British Columbia coast, extending southward into northern and central California. It appears the rain line will be a bit further north with this system, so most of the activity will be north of Kern County Sunday and Monday. Snow levels could drop to 3,500 to 4,000 feet with this system as a north/northwest flow develops along the back side of the system.
Several days of dry weather are anticipated beginning Tuesday as the eastern Pacific high shifts to the east and into California. Even so, with a north/northwest flow through midweek, temperatures will remain below seasonal averages. I hope the medium range models beginning about the tenth come to fruition. One model especially shows a big low off the California coast with an atmospheric river of air moving into central and southern California. This pattern would not be surprising as this is an El Nino year. We’ll watch and see.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness tonight. Rain becoming likely after midnight along the west side with precipitation spreading into the east side during the early morning hours. Periods of rain Thursday morning with a chance of rain Thursday afternoon, mainly in Kern County. Rain could be locally heavy in southwestern Kern County and western Kings Counties. Mostly cloudy Thursday night and Friday morning. Rain and gusty southeast winds will spread into the area later Friday afternoon with rain likely Friday night and Saturday morning, possibly locally heavy mainly along the east side north of Kern County. Showers Saturday afternoon and evening with a small chance of isolated thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy later Saturday night and for a time Sunday morning. Showers will become likely later Sunday morning through Monday, mainly north of Kern County. A chance of showers Monday night, mainly north of Kern County. Mostly to partly cloudy skies Tuesday. Becoming mostly clear Tuesday night through Wednesday with areas of night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 49/61/46/62 | Reedley 50/61/46/62 | Dinuba 48/60/45/61 | |
| Porterville 48/62/45/62 | Lindsay 47/61/45/63 | Delano 50/62/47/63 | |
| Bakersfield 52/62/48/64 | Taft 52/61/48/65 | Arvin 49/63/46/64 | |
| Lamont 50/61/45/65 | Pixley 49/62/45/62 | Tulare 48/60/44/61 | |
| Woodlake 48/61/44/62 | Hanford 50/62/45/63 | Orosi 48/62/45/63 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally out of the east to southeast tonight and Thursday morning at 5 to 12 MPH, becoming light Thursday afternoon and night. later Friday, winds will be out of the southeast at 15 to 25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH possible Friday night and Saturday morning, mainly along the west side but locally elsewhere. It’s possible winds near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains could gust to 40 to 50 MPH Friday night and Saturday morning. Winds Saturday afternoon will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain: The chance of rain over the Coast Range will begin about midnight, spreading over the west side of the valley during the early morning hours and continuing through Thursday morning with light precipitation spreading into the east side. Rain could be locally heavy along the far west side and over the valley portion of Kern County, especially towards Taft and Belridge. There will be a chance of showers Thursday afternoon.
Rainfall amounts with this system will be tricky. Half inch plus totals are possible along the Interstate 5 corridor and especially over the southwestern corner of Kern County. For now, I wouldn’t anticipate more than a tenth or two east of Highway 99. The rain will come to an end by Thursday evening with dry weather Thursday night through Friday morning.
The chance of rain will begin to increase again Friday afternoon with rain at times Friday night and Saturday morning, possibly locally heavy along the east side north of Kern County. The rain will turn to showers Saturday afternoon and evening with a small chance of isolated thunderstorms. There will be a short break in the action Saturday night and for a time Sunday morning.
A colder storm will affect northern and parts of central California Sunday and Monday. It appears most of the action with this system will be north of the Kern County line, though that’s a bit of a tough call at this time. Snow levels with this system should drop to around 3,500 to 4,000 feet. Showers will taper off Monday night with dry weather beginning Tuesday.
Rainfall amounts from Friday afternoon through Saturday could range upwards of an inch on the east side north of Kern County with considerably lesser amounts on the west side and over the valley portion of Kern County.
Frost Discussion: The flow behind a cold weather system which will affect the area Sunday and Monday will be out o the north/northwest, wrapping around the exiting low. The eastern Pacific high will stay just far enough to the west to maintain a north/northwest flow through Wednesday. It’s possible low to mid 30s may occur next Wednesday and Thursday mornings, but for now I’m certainly not expecting anything serious. There is nothing at this time on medium range models suggesting any spring frost problems ahead.
Next report: Thursday morning/January 31