February 2, 2019
Summary: This is one of those rare mornings where it’s hard to know just where to begin. So, we’ll start off with pressure differences. The pressure as of last report down as 29 Palms was 29.96 inches of mercury while at San Francisco, the pressure was 29.44, a difference of more than half an inch between the southern California deserts and the Bay Area. Hurricane force winds are pounding the higher elevations of the Kern County mountains. The strongest gust at Sandburg was 64 MPH and those winds have indeed crashed down slope where the CHP office at the bottom of the Grapevine has measured a peak gust of 74 MPH. a very strong cold front is now entering the western San Joaquin Valley and will move through over the next few hours with a brief period of heavy rain.
Following the front, the rain will sharply taper off, however satellite imagery depicts several batches of showers and thunderstorms off shore. The center of circulation with this monster is roughly 250 miles west of the Golden Gate. By later this evening, the low will finally make landfall just north of Monterey then will slowly drag across central California tonight and early Sunday with numerous showers. Models continue to indicate there’s a great deal of dynamics to the atmosphere for a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and even a few nocturnal thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.
As soon as the low finally moves into Nevada later Sunday, another colder low will be swinging southward along the northern California coast then inland later Sunday and Sunday night. the coldest system of these three will arrive Monday through Tuesday night with periods of rain at times and snow levels lowering down into the foothills, possibly as low as 2,700 to 2,800 feet near Yosemite to around 3,700 feet Tuesday near the Kern County mountains. It seems like each set of models pushes back the time when dry weather will return. It may be all the way into early Wednesday morning before this four to five day event is put into the history books.
Dry weather will prevail later Wednesday through Friday night. it’s possible another low pressure system could bring rain again over the weekend, however models are inconsistent on this so for now we’ll keep conditions dry for next weekend. One thing is a given, temperatures will be well below average this coming week as a north/northeast flow wraps around the backside of the exiting storm as it moves into the Great Basin. Finally, by the weekend, the westerlies will break through for the beginning of a warming trend.
Forecast: Rain through mid morning, heavy at times for a short period later, breaking off into showers and a chance of thunderstorms later this morning through tonight. There will be periods of showers Sunday through Tuesday night, diminishing early Wednesday morning. Partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon. Becoming mostly clear Wednesday night through Friday with areas of night and morning fog. Partly cloudy Friday night and Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 59/52/60/47/54 | Reedley 59/51/60/47/55 | Dinuba 58/50/59/47/53 | |
| Porterville 62/50/61/47/56 | Lindsay 62/49/61/46/55 | Delano 62/50/61/48/56 | |
| Bakersfield 66/51/63/49/57 | Taft 62/52/60/50/56 | Arvin 64/51/61/48/57 | |
| Lamont 66/51/63/48/57 | Pixley 61/50/61/47/57 | Tulare 59/50/59/46/54 | |
| Woodlake 59/50/60/46/55 | Hanford 60/51/61/47/55 | Orosi 58/51/61/46/54 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Showers likely 44/54 |
Wednesday
Showers ending 37/53 |
Thursday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 32/50 |
Friday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 33/56 |
Saturday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 34/59 |
Two Week Outlook: February 7 through February 13: This model continues to show the trend of below average temperatures during this period. Interestingly enough, the greatest risk of rain on this model is central California.
February: This model indicates the eastern Pacific high will be the most dominant feature during the month of February. There will be the usual exceptions, but overall this would result in above average temperatures and drier than average precipitation over much of the west and colder than average temperatures east of the Rockies.
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: The following are peak wind gusts taken over the past few hours: Mettler 46 MPH, Bakersfield 44 MPH, Buttonwillow 41 MPH, Panoche Rd 53 MPH, the bottom of the Grapevine 74 MPH, Sandburg 64 MPH, Tepusquet 78 MPH. Over the coast range, there were numerous gusts between 45 and 65 MPH occurring over the higher elevations.
The cold front is just now moving into the west side of the valley. It will be marked by heavy rain and potentially very strong winds. The winds will quickly die off later this morning as pressures begin to equalize this afternoon. Over the next few days, winds will generally be in the 15 to 20 MPH range with stronger gusts near showers. In the meantime, during roughly the next two hours, wind gusts near the bottom of the Grapevine may again exceed 70 MPH with gusts as strong as 40 to 50 MPH as far north as Bakersfield and along the west side.
Rain: The south and west sides of the valley have been under a rain shadow for much of this event so far. That will be overcome for a time this morning as the cold front drives through over the next handful of hours. There will be a brief period of very heavy rain and strong winds which will end by late this morning. Behind the front, satellite and radar indicate considerable amounts of instability with showers and thunderstorms which will begin to move inland this afternoon. The center of this monster storm will cross through the northern San Joaquin Valley tonight with numerous showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation amounts from now through tonight at most locations will range between .25 and .35 with heaviest amounts along the east side of the valley north of Kern County. With the showery nature this afternoon and beyond, amounts will vary widely from place to place, but locally heavy rain is possible where thunderstorms occur.
The next wave will sweep from west to east Sunday and Sunday night with periods of showers at times. This system will not be carrying nearly as much moisture as there will not be a tropical connection, but even so, showers will continue.
A very cold low will drop southward Monday and Tuesday along the coast of the Pacific Northwest and into northern and central California to continue the very active pattern we’re involved with. Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon as a pool of very cold, unstable air will be overhead.
There may be a few lingering showers Wednesday morning with dry weather returning later Wednesday morning through Friday night. models are at war with each other for the pattern for this coming weekend. Some suggest rain, others do not. At this point, we’ll keep the forecast dry and watch and see.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be well above freezing tonight through Tuesday morning and probably Wednesday morning. Once that last system exits into Nevada Wednesday, a cold north/northeast flow will wrap around the back side and into California for cold nights and chilly days. Widespread low to mid 30s are likely Wednesday morning with a greater risk on Thursday and Friday mornings. I still believe there is a chance coldest locations, especially Thursday and Friday mornings, could drop into the 27 to 29 degree range. Moderation will begin to occur next weekend as the stronger February sun takes over and a westerly flow aloft breaks through. It still look like temperatures will be below seasonal average for the next week or so, however. Although there is no pattern that would result in a critical situation, we will simply have to keep an eye on the pattern as most models are indicating colder than average temperatures continuing through the two week period.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern, Low to mid 40s.
Humidity: Hanford: 80%/95%, Bakersfield: 50%/90%
Actual Humidity February 1, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 98%/65%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 10%, tomorrow 20% Bakersfield: Today: 0% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .31, Parlier .41, Blackwell .NA, Lindcove .35, Arvin .45, Orange Cove .41, Porterville .32, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 52, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 53, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 54, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 74/26. Average Temperatures: 58/38
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1290 -471
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 53.0 +5.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 4.60 season. or -1.13, Month to Date: .04 -.03
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 2.68, or -.48. Month to Date: T -.04
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 610, Parlier, 613 , Arvin, 543 Shafter, 617 Stratford, 619, Delano 613, Lindcove, 906, Porterville, 1255
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:59 am Sunset: 5:26 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:24
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 64 / 46 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 61 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 61 / 45 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 60 / 42 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 64 / 46 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 60 / 44 / M /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 60 / 43 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 62 / 42 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 59 / 46 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 7.92 105 3.99 53 7.56 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 6.44 95 3.55 52 6.78 13.11
MERCED 0.00 6.21 100 2.29 37 6.18 12.50
MADERA 0.00 4.76 76 1.55 25 6.23 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 4.56 80 1.64 29 5.73 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 3.66 70 1.78 34 5.21 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 2.68 85 1.10 35 3.16 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 3.46 128 0.20 7 2.70 5.18
SALINAS 0.05 6.35 96 2.51 38 6.60 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.01 6.93 107 2.30 35 6.50 12.78
SANTA MARIA T 7.47 108 2.02 29 6.90 13.95
Next report: Saturday afternoon/February 2