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Forecast

February 2, 2019/pm report

Summary: As soon as the front went through, winds almost completely died off for a time and are now generally in the 10 to 20 MPH range.  The strongest wind gust was reported at the CHP office at the bottom of the Grapevine as 12:16 this morning with a gust of 74 MPH.  unconfirmed reports of winds over 80 MPH occurred over the Kern County mountains.  Just above the ridge route was a 64 MPH wind gust at Sandburg.  Most locations on the Kern County portion of the valley floor peaked out at between 40 and 50 MPH.  Meadows Field at Bakersfield reported a gust of 53 MPH as did Panoche Rd. just off Interstate 5 in Fresno County.  Doppler radar shows the cold front moving over the Sierra Nevada and into the Owens Valley.  Numerous showers are following the front with a couple of isolated thunderstorms up in Merced and Stanislaus Counties.  Showers will taper off for a few hours later this evening, however once we get into the two to four AM time frame, rain will again spread in from the west, wrapping around a parent low which by that time will be moving slowly through the northern San Joaquin Valley.

 

Periods of showers will continue Sunday and, with relatively cold, unstable air aloft, thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Sunday afternoon and evening.  Another wave of low pressure will move through Sunday afternoon and night.

 

A very cold dynamic low currently developing in the Gulf of Alaska will swing through northern and central California Monday through Tuesday with numerous showers and the possibility of a few thunderstorms Monday afternoon and even more Tuesday afternoon as the coldest air aloft will be overhead.  Combine that with some daytime heating and strong upper air dynamics and we could see some small hail, especially Tuesday afternoon.  Showers will continue for a time Tuesday night with dry weather finally making its triumphant return Wednesday as the low pulls into the interior west.  A north/ northeast flow will develop Wednesday and Thursday behind the low to our east, spreading cold and drier air down the valley which may lead to some frost concerns.  This is discussed below.

 

By Friday, the winds aloft will break in from the west for milder weather.  Some models try to move a new, much weaker low into the northern half of California Saturday night and Sunday for a chance of showers from Fresno County north.

 

Forecast: showers and a chance of isolated thunderstorms through the late evening hours. The chance of rain will again increase after two AM with numerous showers Sunday and a chance of isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening.  Showers Sunday night through Tuesday night.  isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday afternoons, possibly locally heavy with possible small hail.  Mostly cloudy Wednesday morning.  Clearing Wednesday afternoon.  Becoming mostly clear Wednesday night through Friday night with patchy morning fog.  Variable cloudiness Saturday with a chance of light showers from Fresno County north.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 50/60/47/56 Reedley 51/61/47/57 Dinuba 49/59/46/55
Porterville 50/61/46/56 Lindsay 49/61/46/56 Delano 51/62/47/57
Bakersfield 52/63/49/59 Taft 51/63/50/59 Arvin 51/63/47/58
Lamont 51/63/50/58 Pixley 50/61/47/57 Tulare 49/60/46/55
Woodlake 49/61/47/56 Hanford 51/61/47/57 Orosi 49/60/47/56

 

Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH at times tonight with stronger gusts.  Winds Sunday through Tuesday will be generally out of the southeast at 15 to 25 MPH with stronger gusts.

 

Rain:  The general rain event is now over as the front has moved off to the east.  Doppler radar indicates numerous showers and a few thunderstorms developing even as we speak.  Showers will continue through the late evening hours then taper off between roughly 10 and 2:00 with numerous showers after 2:00am continuing at times all the way through Tuesday night.  as is already being demonstrated, thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon with the greatest risk being Tuesday with a pool of very cool, unstable air will be above the valley.  As the stronger February sun heats the ground, currents of warm air spiral skyward then do their dance with that cold air above us for the risk of thunderstorms with the possible risk of hail and isolated heavy rain.  Showers will continue Tuesday night but should be over by sunrise Wednesday.  Dry weather will continue through Friday night.  there will be a small chance of light showers from Fresno County north Saturday night and Sunday as a weak front moves through.

 

Frost Discussion:  All locations will be well above 32 degrees Sunday through Tuesday mornings.  A very cold low will move from northern California into the interior west Wednesday.  Along the back side of this system will be a north/northeast flow which could drive colder and drier air down the valley.  Widespread low to mid 30s are likely Wednesday through Friday mornings and I still believe there’s a chance coldest locations in the typical low lying terrain could dip down to 27 to 29.  One good thing has occurred and that is the fact that the valley is soaking wet, always a benefit in frost situations.  Moderation will occur Saturday and last well through next week as the westerlies move through.  The medium range outlook from the 10th through the 16th still calls for below average temperatures.

 

Next report: Sunday morning/February 3