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Forecast

February 3, 2019/pm report

February 3, 2019

Summary: periods of showers continue to rotate across central California, moving from southwest to northeast.  The coverage has increased over the past couple of hours and the first isolated thunderstorms have developed.  One cell is in northwest Madera County while another straddles the Merced/mariposa county line.  The second of three weather systems will move in to northern and central California later tonight and Monday with a continuation of bands of showers rotating in from the southwest.  As the flow aloft is lifted by the Sierra Nevada, copious amounts of precipitation will continue.  Blizzard warnings are up for the northern Owens Valley up through Lake Tahoe where they are anticipating as much as four feet of new snow.  In our own Sierra Nevada, periods of heavy snow continue.

 

A low will drop rapidly southward from western Canada Monday night then will travel overwater off the coast of the Pacific Northwest, eventually moving into northern and central California Tuesday and Tuesday night.  this system will be very cold with snow eventually lowering to near 2,000 feet along the Sierra Nevada and 3,000 feet over the Kern County mountains.  Showers will continue Tuesday night but will begin to decrease by midnight with lingering snow showers over the Sierra Nevada Wednesday.  The chance of thunderstorms will again increase Monday and especially Tuesday afternoon when a pool of very cold and unstable air will be overhead.  Any thunderstorms that do occur will be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail.

 

Finally, the low will move into the interior west Wednesday.  However, the eastern Pacific high will remain far enough off shore to allow a northerly flow to develop between the off shore high and the exiting low to our east.  This will pump cold and relatively dry air down the valley for an increasing chance of frost/freeze conditions in some areas.  This is discussed below.

 

A new low will drop out of the Gulf of Alaska and into  northern and central California possibly as early as Friday afternoon or Saturday morning.  For now, we’ll just put this in the chance category and, if precipitation does occur, amounts will be pretty insignificant.  Medium range models for next week still indicate the eastern Pacific high will remain several hundred miles off shore, continuing to allow cold storm systems to drop down either from the Gulf of Alaska or possibly western Canada.  These would be followed by periodic shots of cold air and a continuation of below average temperatures.

 

Forecast: Periods of showers tonight.  There will be a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon through early evening.  Periods of showers Monday through Tuesday night with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening and scattered thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening.  Thunderstorms, especially Tuesday, will be accompanied by locally heavy rain and small hail.  Partly cloudy Wednesday.  Mostly clear Wednesday night through Thursday night with patchy night and morning fog.  Increasing cloudiness Friday with a chance of light showers Friday night and Saturday.  Partly cloudy Saturday night and Sunday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 50/59/40/52 Reedley 50/58/41/51 Dinuba 49/58/39/51
Porterville 49/59/40/53 Lindsay 48/59/39/53 Delano 51/60/40/53
Bakersfield 52/61/43/55 Taft 51/61/44/55 Arvin 50/61/42/54
Lamont 51/61/42/54 Pixley 49/60/40/53 Tulare 49/59/39/52
Woodlake 49/59/39/53 Hanford 50/60/40/53 Orosi 48/58/38/53

 

Winds: Winds through Tuesday evening will be generally out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH, especially north of Kern County, with stronger gusts possible near showers and thunderstorms.  Winds Wednesday through Wednesday night will be out of the west to northwest at 10 to 15 MPH.

 

Rain:  Periods of showers will continue through late Tuesday evening.  There will be a chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon through the early evening  hours with a greater risk Monday afternoon and evening.  A very cold pool of unstable air will be above us Tuesday for isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the evening.  If these storms do occur, they would be accompanied by small hail and locally heavy rain.  Dry weather will return Wednesday and continue through at least Friday morning.  The next low to move out of the Gulf of Alaska will arrive late Friday through Saturday with a chance of light showers, mainly north of Kern County.  Precipitation from this event is not expected to be significant.  Medium range models for next week continue to show the storm door being open from either the Gulf of Alaska or even western Canada, so there appears to be a chance of more periods of precipitation with snow down to low elevations.

 

Frost Discussion:  All locations will be well above 32 degrees tonight and Monday night.  the third storm in the series will arrive Monday night and Tuesday.  The pool of air associated with this low is very cold and will allow snow to fall to 2,000 feet by Tuesday evening.  As this system finally pulls off to the east, a north/south flow will dive into California behind the exiting system.  This air mass will be not only cold, but relatively dry which may allow for at least areas of freeze conditions Wednesday with a greater risk Thursday and possibly Friday.  In river bottom and like locations, lows all three nights could drop down to 26 to 28 with widespread 29 to 35 degree temperatures.  On Wednesday morning, there should be plenty of residual cloud cover along the eastern and southern flanks of the valley, giving a decent chance of keeping temperatures up.  That will not be the case Thursday morning as skies should be relatively clear and winds should be near calm.  On Friday morning, we might see increased cloud cover from the next Pacific storm which may spread light showers into the area late Friday and Friday night.  above freezing conditions will prevail Saturday through Sunday but it appears upper level high pressure will be too far off shore next week to keep systems from moving southward from the Gulf of Alaska or from western Canada.  Each time a system moves through, cold air will dive into California, renewing well below average temperatures.  And if the two week model is correct, this pattern will continue through the middle of the month.

 

Next report: Monday morning/February 4