February 3, 2019
Summary: The center of circulation of the powerful low that pounded California yesterday and last night is now centered just south of Reno, Nevada. A very moist west/southwest flow is following this storm which will keep showers going through this evening. This flow is perfectly aligned with the Sierra Nevada where radar is lit up all along the range with continuous rain and snow. Tonight and Monday, another low will swing through northern and central California, maintaining periods of showers. Once the day time heating process gets going, thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and again Monday, but more especially Tuesday afternoon. A very cold low and its pool of air will move directly overhead Tuesday. The chance for more numerous thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening will be there. Any storms that do occur will be accompanied by small hail and localized heavy rain.
The powerful winds that occurred in some areas yesterday are over. Even so, there are significant differences in pressure between the Desert Southwest and a big low off the northern California coast. As a result, gusty southeast winds will continue at times through Tuesday, gusting to near 35 MPH along the west side and from Fresno County northward.
The next challenge will be overnight low temperatures Wednesday through Friday mornings as that last low moves into the interior west. A strong northerly flow will drive very cold air into central California. The potential for overnight lows are discussed in the frost section below.
From Wednesday through Thursday night, high pressure off shore will maintain dry weather. The next low to affect California will drop out of the eastern Gulf of Alaska and into northern and central California Friday night and Saturday. For now, this does not appear to be a big precipitation producer, but rather one which will spread light showers over the area. Yet another northerly flow will set up behind this system for another shot of cold air for central California.
Medium range models for later next week indicate the eastern Pacific high will be several hundred miles off shore. This will allow potentially cold storm systems to drop possibly from the Gulf of Alaska or western Canada and into California for the possibility of more precipitation and well below average temperatures.
Forecast: Periods of showers will continue through Monday with a chance of isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Showers will become more widespread Tuesday through Tuesday evening with isolated to scattered thunderstorms becoming likely Tuesday afternoon and evening. Any thunderstorms that occur will be accompanied by brief very heavy rain and small hail. Showers Tuesday night, tapering off after midnight. Becoming cloudy to partly cloudy Wednesday morning. Clearing Wednesday afternoon. Mostly clear Wednesday night through Thursday night with patchy fog. Increasing cloudiness Friday with a chance of light showers Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. Partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 59/49/59/39/53 | Reedley 59/48/58/39/55 | Dinuba 58/48/58/38/53 | |
| Porterville 60/50/60/38/53 | Lindsay 60/48/58/37/52 | Delano 60/51/60/40/53 | |
| Bakersfield 61/52/61/43/53 | Taft 60/53/60/45/54 | Arvin 61/52/61/42/54 | |
| Lamont 61/51/61/42/54 | Pixley 60/50/59/40/53 | Tulare 58/49/58/39/52 | |
| Woodlake 59/49/58/40/52 | Hanford 60/50/59/39/52 | Orosi 58/49/58/40/53 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Partly cloudy 32/51 |
Thursday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 30/52 |
Friday
PM showers possible 35/53 |
Saturday
AM showers possible 39/54 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 34/57 |
Two Week Outlook: February 10 through February 16: This model indicates a continuation of well below average temperatures as the eastern Pacific high remains several hundred miles off shore, allowing more disturbances and periodic shots of cold air to move in from the west or northwest. The chance of rain during this time frame appears relatively high.
February: This model indicates the eastern Pacific high will be the most dominant feature during the month of February. There will be the usual exceptions, but overall this would result in above average temperatures and drier than average precipitation over much of the west and colder than average temperatures east of the Rockies.
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Periodic winds out of the southeast at 15 to 25 MPH can be expected with gusts to 35 MPH possible along the west side and from Fresno County north. Winds Tuesday night will be out of the west to northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with generally light winds returning Wednesday.
Rain: Periods of showers will continue through Monday and will be most numerous during the afternoons and evenings. Once the daytime heating process gets underway, isolated thunderstorms will be possible both this afternoon and Monday afternoon. The showers will become more numerous Monday night through Tuesday night. the atmosphere’s parameters appear ripe for scattered thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. These storms will be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail. Showers will begin to taper off after midnight Tuesday night with dry weather returning Wednesday through Thursday night. another low will drop southward from the Gulf of Alaska and into northern and central California Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. This system appears to be anemic compared to the current weather pattern. Even so, light showers will be possible, again mainly Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. The medium range outlook for next week is indicating periodic low pressure systems dropping southward from either the Gulf of Alaska or possibly even western Canada. This will continue the possibility of cold weather systems affecting the region later next week. Rainfall amounts today through Tuesday will be generally less than .50, however if your locations happens to be in the path of a thunderstorms, significantly higher amounts are possible.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be well above 32 degrees tonight and above freezing Tuesday morning, as well. Wednesday through Friday are becoming of more concern to me. The storm that will bring more rain and snow down to roughly 2,000 feet in the mountains will be followed by a cold north to possibly even north/northeast flow from western Canada into California. Wednesday morning’s conditions will be very chaotic with potential cloud cover, wind conditions, etc. but where skies clear and winds are calm, coldest areas could drop to 26 to 28 degrees with widespread temperatures from 29 to 34. the risk factor will be greater Thursday morning as the atmosphere will have settled down by then and, with anticipated mostly clear skies, 26 to 28 degrees is possible in the previously mentioned locations with widespread 29 to 34. Friday morning is speculative at this time as another cold low moves into northern California, we could see clouds arrive in time to moderate conditions. If not, readings will be similar to Thursday morning. Over the weekend, a combination of clouds and somewhat milder air aloft should maintain above freezing conditions. We will also have to watch temperatures for next week as models are painting periodic low pressure systems moving out of the Gulf of Alaska or potentially even western Canada and into California. Each system would be followed by a shot of cold air. For now, I’m not calling for below freezing temperatures, but a period of time that deserves monitoring.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern, mid to upper 40s.
Humidity: Hanford: 80%/95%, Bakersfield: 60%/95%
Actual Humidity February 2, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 96%/54%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 10% Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .32, Parlier .36, Blackwell .NA, Lindcove .31, Arvin .45, Orange Cove .36, Porterville .28, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 55, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 55, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 77/25. Average Temperatures: 59/38
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1299 -479
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 54.3 +6.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 5.11 season. or -.70, Month to Date: .55 +.40
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 2.78, or -.43. Month to Date: .10 +.04
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 610, Parlier, 613 , Arvin, 543 Shafter, 617 Stratford, 619, Delano 613, Lindcove, 906, Porterville, 1263
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:58 am Sunset: 5:28 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:27
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 64 / 56 / 0.54 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 60 / 53 / 0.48 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 61 / 53 / 0.54 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 62 / 52 / 0.49 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1500 / 62 / 58 / 0.10 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1500 / 59 / 54 / M /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1556 / 58 / 51 / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1500 / 66 / 53 / 0.51 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.23 8.31 108 3.99 52 7.66 14.06
MODESTO 0.60 7.30 106 3.55 52 6.87 13.11
MERCED 0.44 6.85 110 2.29 37 6.24 12.50
MADERA 0.46 5.30 84 1.55 25 6.28 12.02
FRESNO 0.44 5.04 87 1.64 28 5.81 11.50
HANFORD 0.50 4.20 80 1.78 34 5.25 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.10 2.78 87 1.10 34 3.21 6.47
BISHOP 0.45 3.91 143 0.20 7 2.73 5.18
SALINAS 0.43 6.81 102 2.51 38 6.69 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.40 7.53 114 2.30 35 6.59 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.70 8.17 117 2.02 29 7.00 13.95
Next report: Sunday afternoon/February 3