February 5, 2019
Summary: Temperatures this afternoon are down six to eleven degrees over yesterday afternoon. Dew points have plummeted anywhere from 13 to 16 degrees and have fallen into the low to mid 30s. the freezing level currently over Oakland is lower than I’ve seen it all winter and currently stands at 2,300 feet. I have received reports of pellet snow this afternoon and also isolated thunderstorms are again firing up. The center of circulation is just to the north of us this afternoon. It will finally slowly move eastward tonight and move into the Great Basin Wednesday. Showers will wind down this evening with dry weather after midnight, meaning we need to turn our attention to cold overnight low temperatures.
Tonight’s outcome will vary widely due to wind conditions and cloud cover, especially in the eastern and southern flanks of the valley. The bottom line is, where it clears and winds are calm, mid to upper 20s will occur both tonight and tomorrow night. all of this is detailed in the frost discussion below.
The flow aloft Wednesday and Wednesday night will be right out of the north, driving colder and drier air down the valley. This will eventually cause cloud cover to mix out over the eastern and southern flanks of the valley. Weak high pressure aloft will be overhead Wednesday through Thursday night for very tranquil but cold weather. By Friday afternoon, the next cold low will drop out of the Gulf of Alaska and into northern California Friday night and Saturday, spreading generally light precipitation over the area. Snow levels may come down to about 3,000 feet with this system.
Models indicate a stronger low will dive southward from western Canada into the Pacific Northwest and northern California Saturday night through Monday. The chance of precipitation will again increase during the second half of the weekend and into early next week. For now, it doesn’t appear this system will have a tropical component so precipitation will be generally light with the exception of the mountains where locally heavy amounts may fall due to orographic lift.
I’m really hesitant to put out a definitive forecast for later next week as there are too many differences on models ranging from very wet to dry. For now, it would seem at least a chance of rain will exist after Wednesday with a continuation of well below average temperatures.
Forecast: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through this evening. Any thunderstorms will be accompanied by localized heavy rain and hail. A few snow flakes are possible this evening, especially near the foothills. Mostly to partly cloudy after midnight. Partly cloudy Wednesday morning. Becoming mostly clear and cold Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning. Increasing cloudiness Friday afternoon with periods of light showers later Friday night and at times through Monday. Partly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 28/51/27/53 | Reedley 29/51/28/52 | Dinuba 28/50/27/54 | |
| Porterville 29/52/28/55 | Lindsay 28/52/27/55 | Delano 29/51/28/55 | |
| Bakersfield 32/52/29/56 | Taft 31/53/30/54 | Arvin 30/53/28/55 | |
| Lamont 31/53/28/55 | Pixley 29/52/27/54 | Tulare 28/51/26/54 | |
| Woodlake 29/52/27/54 | Hanford 29/51/28/55 | Orosi 29/51/27/53 | |
Winds: Winds this evening will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 5 to 15 MPH. after midnight, winds will be mainly at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Wednesday through Friday will be generally less than 8 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through this evening. Localized heavy rain and hail will occur with any thunderstorms that develop. A few snowflakes could reach the ground before this winds down later this evening. Expect dry weather from midnight through Friday. The chance for light showers will increase again Saturday as the first of two low pressure systems race southward from the Gulf of Alaska and eventually into northern California. It appears snow levels will drop to between 3,000 to 4,000 feet, possibly lower Sunday night and Monday. Conditions for later next week are up in the air as models are in a state of flux. By and large, however, I do believe a chance of rain is possible after Wednesday.
Frost Discussion: The freezing level over Oakland, according to the latest balloon sounding, was down to 2,300 feet which is the lowest freezing level of the winter, so far. You can imagine how low snow levels are in the surrounding mountains. In fact, snow flakes reaching the ground this evening would not be a total shock. Partial clearing will occur tonight towards the center and west side of the valley. Along the east side of the valley clouds may hang in there for much of the night, if not all night long. These areas will see lows in the low to mid 30s. any location tonight with clear skies and calm winds will have no problem shooting down into the 26 to 28 degree range with isolated locations near 25. Typical flat terrain will generally observe readings in the 28 to 32 degree range with most hillside locations in the lower 30s. the inversion tonight will be very weak in most areas with temperatures only 1 to 3 degrees warmer in most areas.
Wednesday will be cold with highs only in the low 50s. it appears dew points will settle in the low to mid 30s. Thursday will be the coldest in this series with widespread mid to upper 20s. we may see 1 to 3 degrees moderation Friday which still keeps the coldest locations in the upper 20s. Saturday through Monday, above freezing conditions will prevail due to heavy cloud cover and periods of showers.
Right now, the possibility of local frost is there for next Tuesday and Wednesday, however models for that time frame are in a state of flux. Even so, a chance of rain will exist after Thursday. Most of the medium range models are still indicating well below average temperatures for the next week to ten days.
Next report: Wednesday morning/February 6