February 5, 2019
Summary: This winter has been very mild by historic standards, that is, up until now. If short and medium range models are correct, temperatures will be well below average through at least the middle of the month. An extremely cold upper level low is centered over northern California this morning and is moving slowly eastward. The latest freezing level taken overnight at Oakland was all the way down to 3,300 feet, which could easily see snow down to 2,000 feet. That same cold air is spreading southward into central and southern California where snow levels later today and tonight will drop down to 1,500 feet or snow. A snow flake or two could even reach the valley floor in a heavy shower or thunderstorm.
Today will be the last day of a pattern that has literally brought continuous rain and snow up and down the Sierra Nevada, all of this being generated, in part, by orographic lift. Some locations above 8,000 feet have picked up between 10 and 15 feet of new snow, which is just what the doctor ordered for future water supplies.
The shower activity will become more widely scattered today as colder and drier air moves in from the north. As the very cold unstable air aloft interacts with the daytime heating process, thunderstorms will again be possible between the afternoon and evening hours with localized heavy rain and small hail. Just about all the action should be over by this evening, but then we’ll need to deal with what appears to be the coldest air mass of the winter. Widespread freeze conditions can be expected tonight and again Thursday and possibly even Friday mornings. Potential temperatures are all discussed in the frost section below.
Even though we have a cold ridge of high pressure moving in from the west over the next 48 hours, the flow aloft will continue to be out of the north between upper level high pressure several hundred miles off shore and a could trough over the interior west. This will result in the potential for mid 20s in unprotected cold spots tonight and more especially Thursday morning.
More rain is on the horizon in the form of a new cold low dropping southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska. Some models place this system just west of San Francisco by Saturday morning as it pinwheels bands of showers inland. A second low will dive southward on its heels Sunday into Monday, renewing the chance of mainly light precipitation. Even though these systems are cold, they are not quite as cold as the current situation.
Models for the middle of next week and beyond differ considerably. There is some suggestion, however, that a cold low will set up shop off the Oregon or northern California coast with a strong jet stream sweeping possibly subtropical moisture into southern and possibly central California. Stay tuned as this winter is getting more interesting by the minute.
Forecast: Scattered showers today. Isolated thunderstorms are again possible this afternoon through the evening hours. Any thunderstorms will be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail. Partly to mostly cloudy and cold tonight. Mostly to partly cloudy, especially in the southern and eastern sections of the valley tomorrow morning. Clearing Wednesday afternoon. Mostly clear Wednesday night through Thursday night with patchy morning fog and continued very cold. Increasing cloudiness late Friday leading to an increasing chance of showers Friday night and at times through Monday. Partly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 48/29/50/27/52 | Reedley 49/30/52/28/52 | Dinuba 48/30/51/27/53 | |
| Porterville 51/30/51/28/52 | Lindsay 49/29/50/27/53 | Delano 49/31/51/28/53 | |
| Bakersfield 50/32/52/30/55 | Taft 51/32/52/30/55 | Arvin 50/30/52/28/53 | |
| Lamont 49/32/52/29/55 | Pixley 48/30/51/27/54 | Tulare 48/28/51/27/53 | |
| Woodlake 49/29/51/27/54 | Hanford 48/30/51/28/53 | Orosi 49/29/51/27/54 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Increasing clouds 31/56 |
Saturday
Showers likely 40/58 |
Sunday
Showers likely 41/57 |
Monday
AM showers possible 34/55 |
Tuesday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 33/55 |
Two Week Outlook: February 11 through February 17: This model indicates a continuation of well below average temperatures as the eastern Pacific high remains several hundred miles off shore, allowing more disturbances and periodic shots of cold air to move in from the west or northwest. The chance of rain during this time frame appears relatively high.
February: This model indicates the eastern Pacific high will be the most dominant feature during the month of February. There will be the usual exceptions, but overall this would result in above average temperatures and drier than average precipitation over much of the west and colder than average temperatures east of the Rockies.
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 10 to 15 MPH through today with local gusts to 25, mainly in the vicinity of showers or thunderstorms. Winds will die off this evening then be generally less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions tonight through Friday.
Rain: The precipitation pattern today will be more widely scattered. Isolated thunderstorms are again possible this afternoon through the early evening hours. Like yesterday, any storms that do develop will be accompanied by heavy rain and small hail. Dry weather will make a triumphant short lived return this evening. Rainfall amounts from now through this evening will generally range no more than a tenth or two. However, if your location happens to be in the path of a thunderstorm, considerably more is possible. As stated, dry weather will return this evening and continue through Friday. Unsettled weather will return Friday night through Monday. Low pressure will be near San Francisco Saturday followed by a second cold low Sunday and Sunday night. neither of these systems looks particularly moist, so the large amounts of rain and snow central California has been blessed with will be added to, but not by much. If models are correct, we could see heavier precipitation next Wednesday and beyond, especially over the southern half of the state.
Frost Discussion: The air mass now infiltrating the valley is as cold as we’ve seen all season. The freezing level taken last night over Oakland was down to 3,300 feet and it may fall more before all is said and done. Skies will begin to clear tonight, especially towards the center and west side of the valley. Upslope clouds will probably be evident over the eastern side of the valley and in Kern County where lows could remain in the mid 30s. however, where skies clear and winds are calm, the very coldest locations will drop down to 26 to 28 degrees for two or three hours. I wouldn’t be shocked to hear of a 25 degree reading out there somewhere. Let’s hope cloud cover is more dominant than clear skies. The inversion tonight will be weak with temperatures at 34 feet no more than 1 to 4 degrees warmer at most locations.
Thursday morning has the potential to be more risky as the air mass dries out and the clouds evaporate. One good thing is the fact that the valley is soaking wet, which will modify the situation some. Even so, 26 to 28 degree readings are certainly possible Thursday morning in the typical cold spot with an isolated 25 or so possible and most locations ranging from 28 to 33.
With a bit of luck, Friday morning could see maybe a couple degrees of moderation, but that still puts coldest locations in the mid to upper 20s with most locations in the mid 30s.
Above freezing conditions can be expected Saturday through Monday due to more active weather coming in. more rain is possible by the middle of next week, hopefully maintaining above freezing conditions, however well below average temperatures will prevail for the next seven to ten days.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
29 |
Ivanhoe
27 |
Woodlake
28 |
| Strathmore
29 |
Mcfarland
28 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
27 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
31 |
Madera
29 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
30 |
North Bakersfield
31 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
28 |
Lindcove
27 |
Lindcove Hillside
32 |
Sanger River Bottom
25 |
| Root Creek
27 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
30 |
Jasmine
29 |
| Arvin
30 |
Lamont
30 |
Plainview
29 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
30 |
Maricopa
27 |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
28 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid 30s to the lower 40s. Kern, mid to upper 30s.
Humidity: Hanford: 75%/100%, Bakersfield: 60%/95%
Actual Humidity February 4, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 96%/76%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 70% Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 60%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .33, Parlier .35, Blackwell .NA, Lindcove .27, Arvin .48, Orange Cove .31, Porterville .22, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 54, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 55, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 76/24. Average Temperatures: 59/39
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1322 -490
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 53.8 +5.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 5.90 season. or -.06, Month to Date: 1.34 +1.04
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 3.01, or -.28. Month to Date: .33 +.16
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 614, Parlier, 616 , Arvin, 543 Shafter, 617 Stratford, 622, Delano 613, Lindcove, 907, Porterville, 1288
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:57 am Sunset: 5:30 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:30
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 60 / 50 / 0.38 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 59 / 50 / 0.21 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 60 / 48 / 0.20 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 58 / 47 / 0.36 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 61 / 47 / 0.06 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 59 / 52 / M /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1554 / 55 / 47 / 0.31 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 55 / 51 / 0.47 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 56 / 46 / 0.01 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.46 9.50 121 3.99 51 7.86 14.06
MODESTO 0.34 7.87 111 3.55 50 7.06 13.11
MERCED 0.32 7.36 115 2.29 36 6.40 12.50
MADERA 0.37 5.80 91 1.55 24 6.40 12.02
FRESNO 0.21 5.34 90 1.64 28 5.96 11.50
HANFORD 0.20 4.78 89 1.78 33 5.35 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.05 2.97 90 1.10 33 3.29 6.47
BISHOP 0.22 4.21 151 0.20 7 2.78 5.18
SALINAS 1.02 7.92 115 2.51 36 6.88 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.39 9.32 138 2.30 34 6.77 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.49 8.94 124 2.02 28 7.21 13.95
Next report: Tuesday afternoon/February 5