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Forecast

February 7, 2019/pm report

February 7, 2019

Summary: Weak upper level high pressure will begin to slide eastward tonight, allowing the next low pressure system which is currently west of the California/Oregon border, to move southward into northern and central California Friday night and Saturday morning.  The Sierra Nevada will again be the recipient of heavy snow as models project one to two feet of new snow above 7,000 feet.  On the valley floor, precipitation will be relatively light but even so, north of Kern County .25 to .33 would not be a total shock.  This is just the latest in a series of cold low pressure systems to move out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California and it will not be the last.

 

A stronger and very cold system with origins in the Yukon Territory of Canada will move south/southwestward, skirting the Pacific Northwest then moving into northern California late Saturday night through early Monday.  The southern limit of the precip appears to be the Kern County mountains with southern California remaining dry this time around.  Snow levels with this system could possibly drop below 2,000 feet Sunday night and early Monday.

 

Another weak ridge of high pressure will fill in behind the Sunday/Monday event for a very temporary slot of dry weather Monday afternoon through at least Tuesday night.  we may have a situation beginning the middle of next week where flood concerns may become evident.  For the fourth day in a row, models show a significant low developing just off the northern California coast Wednesday night with a significant atmospheric river of air moving from southwest to northeast into California.  This moisture feed will originate in the subtropics, meaning snow levels will rapidly rise with the potential for heavy rain on top of a large snow pack.  It takes take a brain surgeon to see how that could cause problems.

 

Models continue to show waves of low pressure moving inland from Wednesday night through Saturday.  Beyond Saturday of next week, more storms appear both on medium range models and as far out as the new two week outlook which indicates a return to well below average temperatures and periods of precipitation.

 

Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear tonight.  Increasing cloudiness Friday afternoon.  Periods of showers Friday night and Saturday morning with a chance of showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon through the early evening hours.  The showers will taper off later Saturday night and for a time Sunday morning only to increase again by midday Sunday through early Monday morning.  Isolated thunderstorms are also possible Sunday afternoon.  Partly to mostly cloudy Monday.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday night through Tuesday night.  increasing cloudiness Wednesday  with rain becoming likely late Wednesday through Thursday, possibly locally heavy at times Thursday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 29/57/40/56 Reedley 30/57/41/56 Dinuba 29/56/40/55
Porterville 29/57/41/57 Lindsay 28/58/40/56 Delano 30/58/41/57
Bakersfield 33/62/43/58 Taft 35/60/43/59 Arvin 30/61/42/59
Lamont 30/60/43/58 Pixley 29/58/41/57 Tulare 29/56/41/56
Woodlake 29/57/41/56 Hanford 30/58/41/57 Orosi 28/57/40/56

 

Winds: Winds will be generally less than 6 MPH tonight with periods of near calm conditions.  By Friday afternoon, winds will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts, mainly along the west side and from Fresno County north.  Winds Saturday afternoon and evening will be out of the west to northwest at 5 to 15 MPH then will be out of the southeast at 10 to 15 MPH Sunday and out of the northwest Sunday night and Monday at 10 to 20 MPH.

 

Rain:  The chance of showers will begin to increase again late Friday afternoon and become likely Friday night and Saturday morning with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening.  There will be a very brief dry slot later Saturday night and Sunday morning before showers again spread over the area Sunday afternoon into Monday morning with very low snow levels.  Dry weather will return again for a time Monday afternoon through Tuesday night then the potential for much heavier rain will begin late Wednesday through Thursday as a possible atmospheric river of air sets up underneath a very strong low off the northern California coast.  Models indicate a tropical connection, or  pineapple connection, meaning rapidly rising snow levels with the potential of rising rivers and streams along the Sierra Nevada.  There could be disturbances moving inland from late Wednesday afternoon through Saturday.  Even though it may suddenly be warm for a time later next week, the two week model indicates a return to well below average temperatures from the fifteenth through the twenty first with a continued possibility of rain on the valley floor and snow in the mountains.

 

Frost Discussion:  Air temperatures this afternoon are running 2 to 5 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Dew points, however, remain in the low to mid 30s.  even though there will be bands of high clouds overhead from time to time, for now they don’t appear to be dense enough to slow the radiational cooling process.  Even so, I would anticipate overnight lows to end up 1 to 3 degrees warmer Friday morning with the very coldest locations down to 27 to 28 or so and most locations ranging between 29 and 33.  The inversion tonight will be fairly decent with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 4 to 7 degrees warmer at most locations.

 

Beginning Saturday morning, all locations will be above freezing and Sunday morning, as well.  It’s possible Monday could see lower 30s if skies clear behind the exiting low.  There’s a greater risk of upper 20s and lowe r30s Tuesday morning, but it’s also possible subtropical clouds could begin to move in from the southwest, though that’s not a given.

 

I anticipate above freezing conditions Wednesday morning and through the remainder of the week as a very mild air mass moves into our region.

 

Later next weekend and into the following week, we may see a return to below average temperatures but also periodic rain events.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

29

Porterville

29

Ivanhoe

28

Woodlake

30

Strathmore

29

McFarland

29

Ducor

31

Tea Pot Dome

29

Lindsay

28

Exeter

28

Famoso

30

Madera

29

Belridge

28

Delano

30

North Bakersfield

30

Orosi

28

Orange Cove

29

Lindcove

28

Lindcove Hillside

33

Sanger River Bottom

26

Root Creek

27

Venice Hill

29

Rosedale

30

Jasmine

30

Arvin

30

Lamont

30

Plainview

29

Mettler

33

Edison

30

Maricopa

28

Holland Creek

31

Tivy Valley

28

Kite Road South

32

Kite Road North

28

AF=Above Freezing                

 

 

Next report: Friday morning/February 8