February 7, 2019
Summary: Lows this morning throughout the citrus belts are uniformly between 26 and 29 degrees with a few at 30 degrees as of 7:00am. Minor modification will begin tonight, which is discussed below in the frost section.
Temporarily, we have a weak ridge of high pressure above us. Even with the high, the air mass remains cold. The freezing level both at Vandenberg and Oakland was 4,200 feet. You think it was cold on the valley floor, as of 7:00am, it was 15 below 0 at Tuolumne Meadows in Yosemite. The high will begin to give way late tonight and Friday as the first of two low pressure systems moves into California. One will move in Friday night and early Saturday and the second Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.
The first looks a bit more robust on the latest models and could drop fairly significant precipitation over the mountain areas. Possibly another foot or two of snow over the high Sierra. The cold frontal passage will arrive sometime late Friday night or Saturday morning with showers tapering off Saturday night and a few hours of dry weather for the first half of the day Sunday. Storm number two will originate in the Yukon Territory of northwest Canada. It will actually move towards the south/southwest off the coast of the Pacific Northwest where it will modify somewhat in the waters off the coast of Washington and Oregon. Very low snow levels are expected with this system and another round of significant snowfall in the Sierra Nevada.
The pattern for next week is also quite interesting. A possible low pressure system will set up shop off the Oregon/northern California coast with a possible atmospheric river of air (better known as the pineapple connection) moving underneath the low and into central and southern California. It’s also interesting to note the two week model gives a very high percentage for rain for the southern half of the Golden State.
Forecast: Mostly clear today with occasional high clouds. Increasing cloudiness later Friday morning leading to a chance of showers by late afternoon. Showers likely Friday night and Saturday with a chance of isolated thunderstorms with small hail Saturday afternoon and early evening. Showers tapering off Saturday evening. Becoming mostly cloudy Saturday night and Sunday morning. Showers will again be likely Sunday afternoon through Monday morning with a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Partly cloudy Monday night through Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday with a chance of rain Wednesday night and Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 54/28/56/40/56 | Reedley 55/29/56/41/56 | Dinuba 54/28/55/42/55 | |
| Porterville 56/29/58/42/57 | Lindsay 55/28/56/40/57 | Delano 56/30/58/42/58 | |
| Bakersfield 56/33/59/44/59 | Taft 55/36/60/44/59 | Arvin 56/30/60/42/60 | |
| Lamont 57/30/59/43/58 | Pixley 56/29/56/42/55 | Tulare 54/28/55/41/56 | |
| Woodlake 55/29/56/40/56 | Hanford 56/31/56/43/57 | Orosi 54/29/56/41/55 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
PM showers 37/58 |
Monday
Showers likely 40/53 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 30/53 |
Wednesday
PM showers possible 35/58 |
Thursday
Rain possible 42/63 |
Two Week Outlook: February 14 through February 20: This model has an unusually strong signature for rain for the southern half of California. These storms will likely be of the colder variety as temperatures are expected to remain below seasonal norms.
February: This model indicates the eastern Pacific high will be the most dominant feature during the month of February. There will be the usual exceptions, but overall this would result in above average temperatures and drier than average precipitation over much of the west and colder than average temperatures east of the Rockies.
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 8 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Friday morning. Winds Friday afternoon will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH, continuing Friday night. winds will be out of the west to northwest at 10 to 15 MPH Saturday, diminishing Saturday night. winds Sunday will again be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain: the chance for rain will begin to pick up late Friday afternoon with showers becoming likely Friday night and Saturday. Models indicate there are enough dynamics in this atmosphere with this storm for a chance of isolated thunderstorms accompanied by locally heavy rain and small hail Saturday afternoon through the evening hours. Rainfall amounts from this first system will range between no more than .10 over the valley portion of Kern County to possibly .25 to .33 north of the Kern County line. Showers will taper off Saturday night with a brief dry period Sunday morning.
Showers will again pick up Sunday afternoon through at least Monday morning as a very cold system moves into northern California. There’s a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon, depending on the exit time of the system as it moves eastward Monday night. it appears dry weather will prevail Monday night through at least Wednesday morning. Models continue to hint at the possibility of an atmospheric river of air moving into the southern half of California underneath a low pressure system of the Oregon/northern California coast. This is the third day in a row that some models are pointing in that direction. If this happens, we could possibly see heavy amounts of precipitation in central California from Wednesday night through possibly Saturday of next week.
Frost Discussion: Perusing all of the frost stations from Madera County southward to Kern County and all locations were between 26 and 29 degrees with the exception being Terra Bella at 32 and Reedley at 30. We should see anywhere from 1 to 3 degrees of moderation tonight with coldest locations down to 26 to 28 degrees and most other locations at 29 to 32. The inversion tonight will be better with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 4 to 7 degrees warmer at most locations.
Temperatures Saturday through Monday will be above freezing as two storms, one from the Gulf of Alaska and the second with origins in the Yukon Territory of Canada, move through our region. It’s possible upper 20s to lower 30s could occur Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. We could see clouds arrive ahead of the next system which is due to arrive Wednesday night and there could be residual cloud cover Tuesday morning from the Monday storm. After Wednesday, an active weather pattern will keep temperatures above freezing.
The two week model is adamant about temperatures remaining well below average through the twentieth of this month.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
29 |
Ivanhoe
27 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
28 |
mcFarland
28 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
30 |
Madera
28 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
30 |
North Bakersfield
30 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
27 |
Lindcove Hillside
33 |
Sanger River Bottom
25 |
| Root Creek
27 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
30 |
Jasmine
29 |
| Arvin
29 |
Lamont
30 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
34 |
| Edison
29 |
Maricopa
28 |
Holland Creek
30 |
Tivy Valley
28 |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Kern, low to mid 30s.
Humidity: Hanford: 60%/95%, Bakersfield: 45%/90%
Actual Humidity February 6, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 98%/50%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 20% Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .37, Parlier .38, Blackwell .NA, Lindcove .29, Arvin .46, Orange Cove .31, Porterville .24, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 53, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 57, Arvin, 54, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 53, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 79/24. Average Temperatures: 60/39
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1367 -479
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 49.8 +1.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 5.92 season. or -.19, Month to Date: 1.36 +.91
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 3.02, or -.37. Month to Date: .34 +.07
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 650, Parlier, 647 , Arvin, 570 Shafter, 642 Stratford, 652, Delano NA, Lindcove, 95, Porterville, 1342
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:55 am Sunset: 5:32 pm. Hours of Daylight: 10:34
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 55 / 32 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1500 / 40 / 34 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 53 / 31 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 52 / 28 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 51 / 43 / T /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 52 / 29 / M /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1557 / 51 / 29 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 51 / 29 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1559 / 50 / 36 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 53 / 31 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 9.55 119 3.99 50 8.05 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 7.89 109 3.55 49 7.24 13.11
MERCED 0.00 7.40 113 2.29 35 6.56 12.50
MADERA 0.00 5.85 89 1.55 24 6.54 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 5.92 97 1.64 27 6.11 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 4.78 88 1.78 33 5.46 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.02 89 1.10 32 3.39 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 4.27 150 0.20 7 2.84 5.18
SALINAS T 8.11 115 2.51 36 7.07 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.41 135 2.30 33 6.96 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 9.05 122 2.02 27 7.42 13.95
Next report: Thursday afternoon/February 7