February 10, 2019
Summary: it is a very cold afternoon considering it is already the 10th of February. Porterville at 1:00PM was reporting a temperature of just 44 with widespread mid to upper 40s elsewhere. Skies have cleared over the northern half of the valley where temperatures are struggling to reach 50 degrees. The center has opened up into a trough and has moved into western Nevada with its associated cold front draped over the Kern County mountains where heavy snow is being reported at places like Tehachapi and Frazier Park. Behind the front, skies have rapidly been clearing as a weak ridge of upper level high pressure begins to briefly move in from the west from later tonight through Tuesday. The main concern for later tonight and again Monday night will be subfreezing temperatures with widespread upper 20s and possibly colder temperatures in riverbottom and similar cold spots. Potential temperatures are discussed below in the frost section.
As the weak high takes over for the next 48 hours, a northwest flow will prevail. That flow, by late Tuesday night, will be out of the west/southwest underneath an elongated low well off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and northern California. The flow underneath this low will have its origins in the subtropics, thus much warmer air will arrive by Wednesday evening. Along with this very moist flow of air on what may turn into a very fragmented pineapple connection will be periodic rounds of precipitation, possibly locally heavy at times late Tuesday night through Wednesday night. the snow levels along the Sierra Nevada will rise rapidly, even as temperatures on the valley floor warm into the mid to upper 60s Thursday and on through the weekend with lows possibly only in the low to mid 50s. the combination of warm, moist air and heavy precipitation could lead to heavy run off with flooding possible along the streams and rivers of the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada.
This will by no means be over by Wednesday night and models show a warm moist flow continuing into California through the weekend. Embedded within this flow will be waves of low pressure which will spread showers over central California from time to time Thursday through Sunday. Medium range models are indicating the possibility of colder weather returning, but they’re not quite as adamant about cold storms moving into California, though that is still possible. The new two week outlook is indicating the possibility of above average precipitation over southern California, but not central California with well below average temperatures.
Forecast: Clearing tonight with some lingering clouds along the Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains through about midnight. Mostly clear and cold after midnight through Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night with a chance of rain before sunrise. Rain likely Wednesday and Wednesday night, possibly locally heavy at times, especially along the east side north of Kern County. Periods of showers can be expected Thursday through Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 28/52/29/57 | Reedley 29/53/30/57 | Dinuba 27/51/28/56 | |
| Porterville 29/53/29/58 | Lindsay 28/53/29/58 | Delano 30/52/31/58 | |
| Bakersfield 32/53/33/60 | Taft 35/53/37/59 | Arvin 29/53/30/60 | |
| Lamont 29/53/30/59 | Pixley 28/52/29/57 | Tulare 28/52/29/57 | |
| Woodlake 28/52/29/56 | Hanford 29/53/30/58 | Orosi 28/53/29/57 | |
Winds: Winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH through the early evening hours with locally stronger gusts. After midnight, winds will be generally less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Monday through Tuesday will be generally at or less than 8 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds by late Tuesday night and Wednesday will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts from Fresno County northward and along the west side.
Rain: Expect dry weather through Tuesday and part of Tuesday night. the chance of rain will begin to increase during the early morning hours Tuesday night with rain likely Wednesday and Wednesday night, possibly becoming locally heavy at times north of Kern County and mainly along the east side. There will be rain shadows in the southern and western sides of the valley which will play havoc with rainfall totals in those regions. There will be periodic impulses of low pressure moving in from the west/southwest moving in from time to time Thursday through Sunday. The bottom line is, showers will be likely each day Thursday through Sunday.
Medium range models for next week are not quite as strong on the notion of rain for central California, but the door isn’t completely shut on most models. The two week model that goes out through the 24th is calling for a slightly better than even chance of rain in southern California and near average for northern and central California.
Frost Discussion: We will start out the evening with unusually cold temperatures as highs today at most locations will not reach 50 degrees. Skies have been rapidly clearing from northern Tulare and Kings Counties northward and will do so over the south valley over the next several hours. It’s possible there may be some upslope clouds remain over mainly the foothills of Tulare and Kern Counties, but I’m betting skies will be mostly clear after midnight over most, if not all, the valley.
Coldest overnight low temperatures tonight in those river bottom and similar low spots will drop down to 26 to 27 degrees with most flatland type topography ranging from 28 to 31. The inversion tonight will be weak with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 2 to 4 degrees warmer.
Coldest unprotected low spots may reach freezing as early as 9:00pm and 28 degrees by 2:00am and not rise to above freezing until between 8:30 and 9:00am Monday morning. Some models are showing some high clouds trying to move in overhead Monday night and Tuesday morning which could have a minor impact on the radiational cooling process. However, most models maintain generally clear skies, so temperatures should be similar to perhaps a degree or two warmer at most locations.
Fortunately, this event will only last two nights as much warmer air, both at the surface and aloft, will begin to flood in possibly as early as Wednesday night. temperatures well into the 60s can be expected Thursday through Sunday with lows in the low to mid 50s. there is some indication it will turn colder again later next week, but for now we’ll go with above freezing conditions after Tuesday morning.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
28 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
28 |
McFarland
28 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
27 |
Exeter
27 |
Famoso
29 |
Madera
28 |
| Belridge
27 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
29 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
28 |
Lindcove
27 |
Lindcove Hillside
31 |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root Creek
27 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
29 |
Jasmine
29 |
| Arvin
30 |
Lamont
29 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
331 |
| Edison
29 |
Maricopa
28 |
Holland Creek
30 |
Tivy Valley
27 |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
28 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: Monday morning/February 11