February 11, 2019
Summary: Even though temperatures are running 2 to 4 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago, as of 1:00pm most locations were only about 50. Dew points are 6 to 10 degrees lower than yesterday, which does not spell for a good night tonight. The air aloft remains extremely cold with the latest balloon sounding above Oakland showing a freezing level of only 3,500 feet and 3,900 feet above Vandenberg. With mostly clear skies again tonight, mid to upper 20s will again be widespread. This is discussed in detail below.
We have roughly 36 hours of dry weather left as a weak ridge is currently above California with a weak northwest flow aloft. An elongated low pressure system both at the surface and aloft will extend from the Pacific Northwest Tuesday then west/southwest about 1,500 miles out over the ocean. In the meantime, a huge area of tropical moisture is working its way east/northeast towards the California coastline.
There will be a convergence zone between this very wet, warm air mass and that cold low sinking southward off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. This will create a rather fragmented atmospheric river of air into southern and central California, potentially leading to heavy rain late Tuesday night through Wednesday night especially along the Sierra Nevada where the snow level will rapidly rise to above 8,000 feet. Heavy rain falling on a massive snow pack is never good news.
The cooler sector of this first system will arrive Thursday, turning the precipitation pattern more showery and will begin to lower the snow level once again, down to about 6,000 feet or so. A new low will drop southward right along the Canadian coast line and will eventually move into the Pacific Northwest and northern California Friday through Sunday. With the flow underneath this low being out of the west, the possibility of showers will exist each day through Sunday before the low moves eastward early next week.
On paper, it would appear we would have at least 72 hours of dry weather next week with the possibility of another cold low following a similar path about Thursday. That’s still 9 days out, so obviously my confidence level about this is very low. There is one major shift I have seen this afternoon that shows up on the two week model. A building ridge is now shown building along the west coast for a drying pattern. It does, however, indicate a cold trough will be over the interior west, keeping a chilly northwest flow over California and maintaining below average temperatures.
Forecast: Mostly clear tonight and Tuesday with high level clouds beginning to show up Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night with an increasing chance of rain by sunrise. Rain at times Wednesday and Wednesday night, possibly locally heavy north of Kern County and along the east side. Showers Thursday and Thursday night. a chance of showers at any given time Friday through Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 27/58/45/59 | Reedley 28/59/45/58 | Dinuba 27/57/44/58 | |
| Porterville 28/60/45/60 | Lindsay 27/59/44/59 | Delano 28/60/46/59 | |
| Bakersfield 41/61/48/60 | Taft 33/62/50/60 | Arvin 28/61/46/61 | |
| Lamont 28/61/47/60 | Pixley 27/61/46/60 | Tulare 27/58/45/58 | |
| Woodlake 28/59/45/59 | Hanford 29/60/46/60 | Orosi 27/57/44/58 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 5 MPH tonight with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Tuesday will be generally less than 8 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Later Tuesday night, winds will begin to pick up out of the southeast at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts after midnight. Winds Wednesday and Wednesday night will be out of the southeast at 15 to 25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH possible, especially along the west side and in Kern County. Winds Thursday will be generally out of the west to northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain: The chance of rain will begin to increase again during the early morning hours Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Expect periods of rain Wednesday through Wednesday night, locally heavy at times north of Kern County and mainly along the east side from Tulare County to Madera County. Rainfall amounts from Tuesday night through Wednesday night north of Kern County and away from the west side have the potential to range between .50 and 1.00 with possible higher amounts. Along the western side of Fresno County and over much of Kings County, .25 to .50 is possible with possibly .25 over the valley portion of Kern County with locally higher amounts.
Showers will continue Thursday. Look for a chance of showers at any given time from Friday through Sunday with dry weather returning Sunday night and Monday.
For now, anyway, it appears the first half of next week will be dry with the possibility of another shot at cold rain about Thursday or Friday of next week. In the medium range, for the first time in quite a while, the two week model is calling for a good chance of dry weather between the nineteenth and twenty-fifth.
Frost Discussion: Temperatures as of 1:00pm are near the 50 degree mark at most locations. Dew points are anywyere from 6 to 10 degrees lower this afternoon than they were 24 hours ago. So, even though air temperatures are running just a bit higher than yesterday, dew points are headed in the other direction which does not bode well for overnight lows tonight. With freezing levels below 4,000 feet and a relatively dry air mass on the valley floor along with mostly clear skies, widespread mid to upper 20s can be expected tonight. The very coldest locations could make it down to 24 to 26 degrees in those river bottom and similar low terrain type spots. In most areas of generally flat terrain, readings will generally range between 27 and 30 with low 30s at most hillside locations. The inversion tonight will observe temperatures at 34 feet between 3 and 6 degrees warmer.
Coldest locations tonight in unprotected regions will reach the 32 degree mark shortly after 9:00pm and 28 degrees around 2:00 to 3:00am. Temperatures will not rise to above freezing until between 8:30 and 9:00am Tuesday morning. This will be the last subfreezing night for a while as a very moist and mild air mass will break in from the west southwest Tuesday night and Wednesday. Colder weather will again move into California Friday through early next week with the possibility of upper 20s and lower 30s Sunday and Monday mornings. There are the usual differences between models, but that chance does seem plausible.
Later next week, temperatures will remain well below average, but probably above freezing although the way things have gone so far this February, we’ll just have to cross that bridge when we get there.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
28 |
Porterville
27 |
Ivanhoe
27 |
Wooodlake
28 |
| Strathmore
28 |
McFarland
27 |
Ducor
28 |
Tea Pot Dome
27 |
| Lindsay
27 |
Exeter
27 |
Famoso
28 |
Madera
27 |
| Belridge
26 |
Delano
28 |
North Bakersfield
28 |
Orosi
27 |
| Orange Cove
28 |
Lindcove
27 |
Lindcove Hillside
32 |
Sanger River Bottom
24 |
| Root Creek
26 |
Venice Hill
27 |
Rosedale
28 |
Jasmine
28 |
| Arvin
28 |
Lamont
28 |
Plainview
27 |
Mettler
30` |
| Edison
28 |
Maricopa
28 |
Holland Creek
29 |
Tivy Valley
26 |
| Kite Road South
30 |
Kite Road North
27 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: Tuesday morning/February 12