February 16, 2019
Summary: The latest batch of mostly light showers is working its way down the eastern San Joaquin Valley in Fresno County and will move swiftly southward down the rest of the valley over the next few hours. A brief thunderstorm pulsed up over Merced County but dissipated quickly as it moved into the foothills. The freezing level over Oakland taken early this morning was 3,800 feet and 4,200 feet over Vandenberg. I noted the temperature above the top of the ridge route was 36 degrees, so for now anyway the snow level is above pass levels, but that’s certain to change overnight.
Each impulse that moves down through California is slightly colder than the previous one. The last in this series will arrive Sunday through at least part of Sunday night, dropping snow levels in the surrounding mountains to near 1,500 feet or so, although some models this afternoon are hinting at slightly warmer temperatures than that.
Sunday night is when the snow levels will reach their lowest as a cold, northerly flow along the back side of this latest system comes into play over central California. The potential for below freezing temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday is high and possibly locally Monday morning, which is discussed below. Speaking of Monday and Tuesday, a cold northerly flow with its origins in northwest Canada will move into our region, keeping temperatures a good 8 to 10 degrees below seasonal values.
After that, we get into late Wednesday through early Friday when a very cold low will slide southward into central California. The placement and the timing of this system certainly varies from model to model, but all agree this will be a very cold system with limited moisture. Orographics will wring out what moisture there is over the Sierra Nevada. Some models show snow down to 500 feet, meaning the higher elevations of the west side and along the foot hills of the Sierra Nevada, especially in Tulare County, though I hesitate to put that in the forecast yet.
Once we get to next weekend, a new pattern will set up and my confidence level on this is increasing. High pressure over the eastern Pacific will finally move eastward enough to cut off the Polar Express, leading to a nice warming trend. We could actually see 60 degrees by next Sunday. Next week also looks to be dry and mild as we will remain under a ridge of high pressure with generally a westerly flow aloft, maintaining a more “normal” temperature regime.
Forecast: Periods of mainly light showers well into Sunday evening with a small chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and evening and again Sunday afternoon and evening. Showers, diminishing later Sunday night. becoming partly cloudy Monday. Mostly clear Monday night through Tuesday night and cold. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday. Showers likely possibly as early as late Wednesday afternoon with the greatest risk later in the afternoon and evening. Snow well down into the foothills. A chance of showers Thursday night, becoming partly cloudy Friday. Mostly clear Friday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 37/50/32/51 | Reedley 39/51/31/51 | Dinuba 37/49/30/50 | |
| Porterville 39/50/31/52 | Lindsay 37/50/30/51 | Delano 39/51/32/52 | |
| Bakersfield 39/51/33/52 | Taft 38/50/34/51 | Arvin 40/50/33/51 | |
| Lamont 38/51/32/51 | Pixley 38/50/31/52 | Tulare 38/49/30/51 | |
| Woodlake 38/50/31/52 | Hanford 39/51/31/51 | Orosi 38/50/30/51 | |
Winds: Winds will be variable to 15 MPH tonight with local gusts to 25 MPH near showers or thunderstorms. Winds Sunday through the evening will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds will diminish Sunday night to 5 to 10 MPH and become generally light after midnight. Winds Monday and Tuesday will be generally out of the north to northwest at 5 to 10 MPH but will turn light and variable during the overnight hours.
Rain: Watching Doppler radar as I dictate, I’m looking at a few fast developing but small thunderstorms in Fresno County, moving fairly rapidly into Kings and Tulare Counties. More isolated cells will be possible into the early evening hours. These storms will, of course, be accompanied by small hail and very brief, localized heavy rain. Most areas will observe light showers from time to time tonight through Sunday with another risk of isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. Showers will taper off after midnight Sunday night with dry weather returning Monday.
Rainfall amounts through Sunday night will be no more than a tenth or two at most locations with the exception of those areas that are hit by thunderstorms where upwards to half an inch could be tallied.
Dry weather will prevail Monday through the first half of the day Wednesday. There will be a chance of showers Wednesday afternoon, becoming likely Thursday with a chance Thursday night. snow levels with this system, according to some models, could be as low as 500 feet, putting the snow level down the west side, especially along the Interstate 5 corridor, and near the Sierra Nevada foothills.
The triumphant return of dry weather will arrive Friday, say models, not only encompassing the weekend, but hopefully all of next week.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing tonight, but near to slightly above in the coldest locations. Monday morning’s forecast will be a challenge because of the exit strategy of a very cold storm moving through Sunday and Sunday evening. It’s possible plenty of upslope clouds could continue along the Sierra Nevada foothills and the Kern County mountains. Mixing and local wind conditions could also be helpful. Even so, it skies do clear for at least several hours will calm winds, lows of 28 to 31 are certainly possible. Tuesday and Wednesday mornings are of more concern as a cold northerly flow wrapping around the back side of our exiting storm pumps drier and colder air into the valley. Lows of 27 to 31 degrees are certainly possible each morning. Some models this afternoon are coming in a bit milder, but for now I’ll lean low and study how the elements come into play after Sunday evening’s event. Thursday and Friday should be above freezing. Saturday at this time is questionable but as of now it doesn’t look like anything serious. Finally, a northwest and eventually westerly flow will set up for the beginning of A) a long dry spell and B) above freezing temperatures.
Next report: Sunday morning/February 17