February 24, 2019
Summary: Finally temperatures this afternoon will top the 60 degree mark on a widespread basis with mid to upper 60s likely Monday and Tuesday. The overall pattern shows weak upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific off the central and southern California coast extending inland into the Desert Southwest. To our north, there is a low center over Washington state with a nice westerly flow underneath this feature. Subtropical moisture will begin to feed into this system, eventually working its way into northern California tonight through Monday night.
By Tuesday, that zone of tropical moisture will work southward into central California with precipitation possibly reaching Fresno County late Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday evening. It will then spread southward over the remainder of the valley as we move into Wednesday and possibly Thursday. There may be some significant amounts of rain along the Sierra Nevada as the typical orographics come into play. Snow levels will rise to about 7,000 to 8,000 feet by mid week.
On Thursday night and Friday, a fast moving temporary ridge of upper level high pressure will upwell ahead of a mid Pacific and very large storm system. By Saturday, the low’s center of circulation will be just off the northern California coast. Disturbances rotating underneath the low will rotate into central California from time to time later Saturday through Monday with a decent chance of significant rain on the valley floor and over the Sierra Nevada. Snow levels will be high.
Beginning Tuesday of next week, models vary considerably. For now, it looks like there will be a couple days of dry weather. Sometime later next week, another warm storm could potentially follow a similar path for additional precipitation. It appears that at least the first part of March will be the opposite of February with above average temperatures and high snow levels.
Forecast: Mostly clear through tonight with occasional cloudiness, mainly from Fresno County north. From Sunday through Monday night, there will be intervals of variable cloudiness but occasional periods of sunshine (!!!) can be expected, as well. There will be an increasing chance of rain by Tuesday night, rain becoming likely at times Wednesday through Thursday. A chance of showers Thursday night. partly cloudy Friday and Friday night. look for increasing cloudiness Saturday with rain likely by afternoon. Periods of rain Saturday night and Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 62/39/66/43/65 | Reedley 63/38/65/43/63 | Dinuba 61/38/65/43/62 | |
| Porterville 63/38/67/43/64 | Lindsay 62/38/66/42/65 | Delano 64/40/67/42/67 | |
| Bakersfield 64/42/67/48/68 | Taft 64/43/67/47/68 | Arvin 64/41/67/44/67 | |
| Lamont 64/40/66/45/63 | Pixley 64/39/65/42/64 | Tulare 62/38/65/42/63 | |
| Woodlake 62/38/66/43/63 | Hanford 63/38/65/43/64 | Orosi 63/38/65/43/63 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Rain likely 49/64 |
Thursday
Rain likely 52/59 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 38/59 |
Saturday
Rain likely 46/63 |
Sunday
Rain likely 50/68 |
Two Week Outlook: March 3 through March 9: Northern and central California still have the highest chance of rain of any location in the lower 48 during this period as a moist, westerly flow brings mild Pacific storms into California. Temperatures under this regime will generally be above seasonal averages.
March: February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting. The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Can you say “Ooops”? anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be generally variable to around 12 MPH or less through Monday night. winds Tuesday through Wednesday will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH, mainly along the west side.
Rain: Dry conditions will continue through Monday night and possibly Tuesday. For the period Tuesday night through Thursday, a subtropical feed of moisture will be moving into central California from the west/southwest. This could add up to decent amounts of rainfall along the Sierra Nevada with light precipitation in the south valley and more substantial amounts from Fresno County north. For now, late Thursday night through Friday night appear to be dry. A very warm, large low pressure system will approach the central and northern California coast Saturday. This system could be carrying a considerable amount of moisture with high snow levels along the Sierra Nevada. For now, it appears likely rain will be occurring Sunday and Monday, as well. By a week from Tuesday, at least a few days of dry weather will return with possibly more precipitation to follow later in the week.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing tonight through Thursday morning. A colder air mass will overspread central California Friday and Saturday. For now, it doesn’t appear there will be any frost as temperatures are expected to remain in the mid 30s to the lower 40s. for Sunday and beyond, expect above freezing conditions to prevail. Nothing on current models suggesting a particularly cold weather pattern on the horizon.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Mid to upper 30s. Humidity values ranging from 40%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 35%/80%
Actual Humidity February 23, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 98%/50%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 30% Bakersfield: Today: 60% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .51, Parlier .51, Blackwell .54, Lindcove .41, Arvin 48, Orange Cove .48, Porterville .42, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 48, Blackwell 49, Lindcove, 53, Arvin, 49, Orange Cove 48, Porterville 49, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 79/30. Average Temperatures: 64/41
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1692 -401
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for February so far: 46.7 -3.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 7.79 season. or +.53. Month to Date: 3.23 +1.63
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 3.75, or -.39. Month to Date: 1.07 +.05
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 866, Parlier, 837 , Arvin, 775 Shafter, 832 Stratford, 835, Lindcove, 1166, Porterville, 1618
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:36 am Sunset: 5:48 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:11
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 57 / 34 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 54 / 37 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 55 / 32 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 54 / 29 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 54 / 35 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 54 / 34 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 55 / 32 / 0.00 /
IYK : Inyokern AP 2455 : 56 / 27 / 0.00 /
MHV : Mojave AP 2785 : 48 / 30 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 11.53 120 3.99 42 9.59 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 9.17 106 3.56 41 8.66 13.11
MERCED 0.00 9.48 118 2.30 29 8.02 12.50
MADERA 0.00 7.32 93 1.58 20 7.88 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 7.79 106 1.65 22 7.34 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 5.95 91 1.78 27 6.57 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.75 91 1.10 27 4.14 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 5.63 167 0.20 6 3.37 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 10.43 122 2.51 29 8.56 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 11.32 133 2.30 27 8.51 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 10.97 118 2.02 22 9.26 13.95
Next report: Monday morning/February 25