February 25, 2019
Summary: The cloud cover from earlier today has dissipated, resulting in more sunshine than was anticipated earlier. As a result, by noon temperatures had already moved into the mid to upper 60s. There’s more cloud cover off shore, though, and it’s spreading over the northern half of the valley as moderate to heavy rain continues from a north bay, Sacramento, Tahoe line north. This is your typical pineapple connection and it will slowly sag southward, spreading precipitation into central California Tuesday night through much of the day Thursday. This line of tropical moisture will weaken with time and also lose its dynamics as it moves into south/central California. Couple that with a westerly flow aloft and the ingredients will result in rain shadows on the west side but more especially in Kern County, causing limited rainfall amounts in those areas.
From roughly Kings Canyon northward, orographic lift along the Sierra Nevada could squeeze two to three inches of rain out of the atmosphere from Tuesday night through Thursday with snow levels at about 7,500 feet or so. The freezing level above Vandenberg had risen to 9,400 feet, but actually dipped a bit when that moist flow above Oakland at 7,700 feet moved over. The flow aloft during this entire period will be out of the west, maintaining very mild conditions.
A fast moving ridge of upper level high pressure will move through Thursday night through Friday night for a temporary bout of dry weather. Some models aren’t quite as strong on a mid latitude storm somewhere off the northern California coast later Saturday. These same models have also slowed the system down and show it moving inland through northern California Saturday night and early Sunday. From Fresno County north, rainfall amounts may turn out to be halfway decent. South of Fresno County, though, there is some doubt in my mind about anything decent.
Dry weather under a building ridge will return Monday through Wednesday of next week followed by another lower latitude storm later in the week. The ramifications are unclear at this time for central California, but I would be remiss if I didn’t mention the possibility of rain for next Wednesday through Friday.
The two week outlook out this afternoon indicates roughly 90% of the lower 48 will experience below average temperatures between March 5 and 11, including California, but with a good chance of above average precipitation.
Forecast: Partly cloudy tonight. Variable cloudiness Tuesday. Cloudy Tuesday night with a chance of showers before midnight. Showers becoming likely north of Kern County after midnight and at times through Thursday with light showers in Kern County. Mostly to partly cloudy Thursday night. partly cloudy Friday. Increasing cloudiness Friday night with periods of rain Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening. Mostly to partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 42/65/48/65 | Reedley 44/66/48/63 | Dinuba 41/65/48/63 | |
| Porterville 42/66/48/64 | Lindsay 41/65/46/64 | Delano 43/66/49/65 | |
| Bakersfield 46/67/50/66 | Taft 48/67/51/65 | Arvin 43/67/49/66 | |
| Lamont 44/68/50/66 | Pixley 43/66/48/64 | Tulare 43/65/47/63 | |
| Woodlake 42/65/47/64 | Hanford 43/65/49/65 | Orosi 43/64/47/64 | |
Winds: Winds along the west side and from Fresno County north will be generally out of the southeast at 15 to 25 MPH at times with stronger gusts through Wednesday, decreasing to 5 to 10 MPH Wednesday night and Thursday. In Tulare and Kern Counties, winds will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain: There will be a chance of showers from Fresno County north as early as Tuesday afternoon or evening, spreading into Kings and Tulare Counties after midnight. On Wednesday and through Thursday, periods of rain will be likely north of Kern County with light, scattered showers in Kern County. Rainfall amounts from Tuesday night through Thursday in Fresno and Madera Counties could be between .33 and .50. There will be strong rain shadows along the west side and especially in Kern County where .25 or less is expected along the west side and generally at or less than .10 over the valley portion of Kern County. Rainfall amounts in Tulare County should range from .25 to .33 from roughly Visalia/Exeter north with lesser amounts further south. Thursday night through Friday night will be dry. Some models have slowed down the weekend system, moving it inland Saturday night and early Sunday. Others aren’t as bullish on this being a significant rain event for central California, but nevertheless, precipitation will be likely north of Kern County Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening with a chance of showers in Kern County.
Dry weather will return next Monday and continue through Wednesday with possibly another lower latitude storm around Wednesday night or Thursday of next week.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for the foreseeable future.
Next report: Tuesday morning/February 26