February 26, 2019
Summary: The atmospheric river of air and a stationary cold front continue to inundate northern California. The northern Sierra Nevada has received 7 to 10 inches of rain over the past two days. I noted over the past 24 hours San Rafael has picked up 7.92 and 7.50 inches in the mountains north of Santa Rosa. Even Sacramento has received almost 2 inches over the past 24 hours.
Models project the stationary front to finally start to inch its way southward. The so called atmospheric river of air will weaken considerably once it moves into central California. Even so, precipitation will spread over the entire region tonight with rain continuing on and off through Thursday. The fact all this energy is moving in from the west/southwest means conditions are ideal for rain shadows along the west side and in Kern County. How far across the valley the rain shadows extend is difficult to nail down.
A very temporary ridge of high pressure will move in from the west Thursday night through Friday evening then it will move quickly into the Great Basin.
The next lower latitude storm will be just to the northwest of San Francisco Saturday. This event will likely drop heavy precipitation over the Sierra Nevada, but projected winds would favor strong rain shadows over much of the San Joaquin Valley. The chance of rain will diminish Monday but begin to increase again Tuesday night as another lower latitude storm, which at this point appears stronger, will spread some possibly heavy precipitation over central California by the middle of next week.
The new two week outlook is calling for a return to below average temperatures and additional opportunities for precipitation.
Forecast: Cloudy tonight with a chance of showers before midnight, mainly from Fresno County northward. The chance of rain will begin to increase after midnight. Expect periods of rain Wednesday through Thursday north of Kern County and light, scattered showers in Kern County. A chance of showers Thursday evening then partly cloudy later Thursday night through Friday. Increasing cloudiness Friday night. periods of rain Saturday through Sunday. A chance of showers Sunday night and Monday morning. Partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night with a chance of rain after midnight.
Short Term:
| Madera 50/61/51/65 | Reedley 51/62/53/66 | Dinuba 49/61/52/65 | |
| Porterville 48/63/51/66 | Lindsay 48/62/50/66 | Delano 49/62/53/67 | |
| Bakersfield 50/64/54/68 | Taft 51/63/52/67 | Arvin 48/65/52/68 | |
| Lamont 50/63/53/67 | Pixley 50/62/53/66 | Tulare 50/61/52/64 | |
| Woodlake 48/62/51/66 | Hanford 50/62/52/66 | Orosi 49/61/51/66 | |
Winds: Winds tonight and for a time Wednesday will increase out of the southeast at 15 to 25 MPH with stronger gusts. In Tulare and Kern Counties, winds will be mainly out of the east to southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts later tonight and Wednesday morning. Winds Wednesday afternoon through Thursday will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts with light winds return Thursday night and Friday.
Rain: There is a chance of light showers before midnight tonight, mainly from Fresno County north. That chance will steadily increase after midnight. Expect periods of rain Wednesday through Thursday. There will be strong rain shadows along the west side and in Kern County. It’s possible Madera County and eastern Fresno County could pick up between .25 and .50 with generally less than .25 along the west side and at or less than .10 in Kern County. Tulare County rainfall amounts will range from .25 to .33 in the northern sector, sloping to .10 to .25 in the south. Dry weather will return later Thursday night, continuing through Friday night.
The next lower latitude storm will arrive late Friday night through Sunday with periods of rain. Orographics will wring out heavy amounts of rain along the Sierra Nevada, but latest model information points to strong rain shadows over much of the valley, especially the south valley. There’s a chance of showers lasting into Monday morning then a short period of dry weather Monday afternoon through Tuesday. The chance for more rain will begin later Tuesday night, extending through at least Wednesday night. on paper, this looks like the strongest of the bunch, so we’ll see if that trend continues on future models.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for the foreseeable future.
Next report: Wednesday morning/February 27