March 2, 2019
Summary: The overcast that was prevalent this morning has partially burned off, revealing sunshine in some areas this afternoon. The cloud cover has kept temperatures down as valley temperatures are 2 to 7 degrees cooler than at this time yesterday. A most impressive low center is located around 1,000 miles west of the central California coast and is moving east/northeast. On the eastern and southeastern flanks of the low, a well organized atmospheric river of air with embedded thunderstorms is forming.
This subtropical river will move on shore from San Simeon on the north to Santa Barbara on the south Tuesday morning. The southern half of the San Joaquin Valley is in the bulls eye of this flow. Some of the rainfall estimates on models are quite interesting. For example, from Tuesday morning through Wednesday night, one model indicates 2.25 in Porterville, which makes sense due to its proximity to the Sierra Nevada. It also points to 5.45 at Lodgepole in Sequoia National Park. This flow will last through Tuesday with the heaviest precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
The AR will drift slowly southward into southern California Wednesday afternoon as the cold front from the storm drives southward through the valley. Models portray the air mass behind the front as very unstable so both along the front itself and behind the front Wednesday afternoon thunderstorms with heavy rain are possible through Wednesday evening. Numerous showers will continue Wednesday night and on and off through Friday night as two more much weaker systems move through. One will move through Thursday evening and the second on Friday afternoon and night.
Saturday through Sunday should be dry under a weak ridge. The weather for Sunday night through Monday is considerably more speculative than it was this morning. A weak low shows up off the southern California coast and will move in Monday. It will be too far to the south to have much impact on central California. Other models, however, indicate a stronger low will affect real estate from Fresno County southward. In any case, I’ll put a small chance of showers in the forecast now for Sunday night and Monday.
Models are lining up now in projecting a long awaited dry spell from the middle of next week through the following weekend. For the first time in weeks, the two week model is indicating there’s a good chance of dry weather between the 12th and the 18th.
Forecast: partly cloudy before midnight. Increasing cloudiness after midnight with a chance of showers before dawn. Rain likely Tuesday, especially from mid morning on, becoming possibly heavy at times. Rain Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, possibly heavy at times. Showers Wednesday afternoon and night with a chance of thunderstorms from late morning Wednesday through Wednesday evening. Showers likely Thursday through Friday night with generally light precipitation amounts. Partly cloudy Saturday through Sunday. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night with a small chance of showers Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 50/61/54/65 | Reedley 50/62/55/65 | Dinuba 48/60/54/64 | |
| Porterville 48/63/55/66 | Lindsay 48/63/55/65 | Delano 51/63/56/66 | |
| Bakersfield 51/63/57/68 | Taft 51/63/57/67 | Arvin 51/63/56/68 | |
| Lamont 50/64/56/67 | Pixley 50/62/56/66 | Tulare 49/61/54/65 | |
| Woodlake 49/61/54/65 | Hanford 50/61/56/66 | Orosi 49/61/54/66 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 10 MPH tonight with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Tuesday will begin to increase out of the east at 10 to 20 MPH Tuesday morning, increasing to 15 to 30 MPH Tuesday afternoon and at times through Wednesday morning with gusts to possibly 40 MPH along the west side. Winds near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains may gust in excess of 50 MPH Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. Winds Wednesday afternoon through Thursday will continue out of the east to southeast at 10 to 20 MPH at times with stronger gusts near showers.
Rain: There is a minimal chance of showers during the predawn hours, however the real rain will begin probably about mid morning Tuesday and continue through Wednesday morning, heavy at times. The heaviest precipitation will occur Tuesday night and for a time Wednesday morning. The atmospheric river of air will cover the southern half of the San Joaquin Valley. Models continue to indicate between one and two inches could fall on the valley floor. Places like Porterville, Lindsay, and Exeter and other locations along the Sierra Nevada foothills could actually receive two inches from Tuesday through Wednesday night. the higher elevations of the sierra Nevada are looking at five plus inches of rain during that same time frame. The widespread rain will break off into showers with a chance of thunderstorms after the cold front moves through. The AR will then move into southern California where flooding rains will certainly occur. Much lighter precipitation in the form of showers will continue at times Thursday through Friday night as two more low pressure systems move through. These systems, however, will have no pineapple connections. With a little bit of luck, dry weather will prevail Saturday through Sunday and possibly well into next week. Some models have really backed off on the chance for rain Sunday night and Monday as a much weaker looking system moves through southern California and northern Baja. Later next week and beyond also appears to be dry as a ridge of upper level high pressure finally becomes established. Even the two week model now for the 12th through the 18th is indicating a good chance of dry weather.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for the foreseeable future.
Next report: Tuesday morning/March 5