March 4, 2019
Summary: Skies are generally overcast this morning. There are a few light showers over the foothills of Mariposa, Madera, and Fresno Counties, but nothing over the valley floor. Currently, we are under a fast moving ridge of upper level high pressure which by late Monday night will progress into the interior west. So, we’ll have a short period of dry weather, lasting through tonight.
I’m rather amazed how consistent models have been about where an atmospheric river of air will come on shore. It still appears the bulls eye will be right at Kern County as the heaviest precipitation associated with this flow will be from roughly San Simeon on the north to Ventura County on the south. This means that Kings, Tulare, and Kern Counties will be right underneath this rich, subtropical flow of air. Models have not backed off their estimates of between one and two inches on the valley floor from Fresno County south. Even the valley portion of Kern County could potentially pick up more than an inch.
Rain shadows always play some role in rainfall amounts on the valley floor so this event will be interesting from a meteorological standpoint. Five plus inches are expected over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada, especially in Tulare County. By the time we get into Wednesday, a cold front will be moving slowly down the valley so I would anticipate the rain would turn to showers later Wednesday afternoon with possibly a few thunderstorms.
A new trough will move inland Wednesday night and Thursday, keeping the shower machine going with much lighter precipitation amounts. Behind the cold front on Wednesday will be considerably cooler air which, by late Thursday and Friday, may cause the snow level to lower down to 3,000 to 4,000 feet. Another weaker low will move inland Friday with the main emphasis on southern California. Still, there will be a chance of showers for our region, as well.
With a little bit of luck, Friday night and Saturday will be dry as a weak ridge moves inland. By late Sunday and Monday, a large low will drop down out of the Gulf of Alaska and will park off the California coast before moving slowly inland for unsettled conditions Sunday night through possibly Tuesday. Some models actually show things drying up for a while after Tuesday as high pressure over the eastern Pacific actually moves far enough to the east to deflect the storm track considerably further north. Since this is the first model run to suggest a period of dry weather next week, confidence levels are low.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy this morning. Partly cloudy this afternoon through tonight. Rain likely Tuesday, becoming heavy at times. Rain, potentially heavy at times, Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Showers Wednesday afternoon and night with a chance of heavy thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Showers likely Thursday with a chance of showers Friday. Partly cloudy Friday night through Saturday night. increasing cloudiness Sunday with a chance of afternoon showers. Showers likely Sunday night and Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/48/59/53/64 | Reedley 62/48/59/52/65 | Dinuba 61/46/58/52/65 | |
| Porterville 62/47/61/54/65 | Lindsay 62/47/61/53/67 | Delano 63/49/61/54/68 | |
| Bakersfield 63/50/63/56/70 | Taft 64/51/63/56/69 | Arvin 62/50/63/55/70 | |
| Lamont 63/50/64/55/69 | Pixley 62/49/61/54/64 | Tulare 62/47/58/53/64 | |
| Woodlake 63/48/60/53/63 | Hanford 63/49/59/54/66 | Orosi 62/46/59/53/63 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Showers likely 48/64 |
Friday
Showers likely 44/58 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 40/62 |
Sunday
PM showers 43/63 |
Monday
Showers likely 43/64 |
Two Week Outlook: March 11 through March 17: This model indicates there’s a reasonably good chance of above average precipitation over the southern half of California into the Desert Southwest while precipitation over northern California will be near average. The flow aloft will be generally out of the northwest which would favor below average temperatures.
March: February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting. The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Can you say “Ooops”? anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds through tonight will be variable in nature and generally less than 10 MPH. winds Tuesday will begin to increase out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH. late Tuesday through Wednesday morning, gusts in excess of 30 MPH will be possible along the west side. Also, winds near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains could gust in excess of 40 MPH. Again, that’s for late Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Winds later Wednesday afternoon through Thursday will be out of the west to southwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts near showers.
Rain: Enjoy the next several hours as dry conditions will prevail before what could potentially be the wettest storm of the season arrives. The chance of rain will begin to increase about sunrise on Tuesday. The deeper we progress through the day, the wetter it will become. Models continue to indicate our atmospheric river of air will move inland near San Simeon on the north to Ventura County on the south. This puts the southern half of the San Joaquin Valley in the bulls eye. This atmospheric river will not move far enough to the south until later Wednesday afternoon when a strong cold front moves through. Numerous showers and even some thunderstorms will follow the front Wednesday afternoon and evening with widespread showers Wednesday night. from early Tuesday morning through Wednesday night, models are still adamant on one to two inches falling on the valley floor from Fresno County south. The higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada should pick up five plus inches of rain. More impulses of low pressure will move through Thursday and Friday with periods of showers, however, they will be much lighter with snow possibly down to 3,500 to 4,000 feet. Over the weekend, at least a short period of dry weather should be at hand from Friday night through most of Sunday. A low with origins in the Gulf of Alaska is projected to move through early next week for more showers, however this system pales in comparison to our current weather. Some models actually indicate we’ll have a few days of dry weather from a week from Wednesday to the next weekend.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for the foreseeable future.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Mid to upper 40s. Humidity values ranging from 60%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 60%/90%
Actual Humidity March 3, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 97%/57%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 0% Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 0%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .59, Parlier .60, Blackwell .57, Lindcove .51, Arvin 62, Orange Cove .50, Porterville .56, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 57, Blackwell 55, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 58, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 84/30. Average Temperatures: 66/42
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1759 -430
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for March so far: 57.4 +4.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 8.55 season. or +.65. Month to Date: .73 +.52
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 4.47, or -.02. Month to Date: .59 +.46
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 878, Parlier, 845 , Arvin, 804 Shafter, 848 Stratford, 846, Lindcove, 1179, Porterville, 1647
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:24 am Sunset: 5:57 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:31
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1500 / 68 / 56 / 0.09 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1500 / 65 / 55 / 0.26 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1500 / 69 / 54 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 68 / 52 / M /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 68 / 50 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 67 / 54 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1558 / 64 / 53 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 67 / 51 / 0.01 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1556 / 66 / 51 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.31 13.81 134 5.60 55 10.27 14.06
MODESTO 0.11 10.35 111 4.45 48 9.32 13.11
MERCED 0.15 10.24 117 3.82 44 8.75 12.50
MADERA 0.09 8.15 95 3.29 38 8.61 12.02
FRESNO T 8.55 108 3.22 41 7.90 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 6.55 92 2.52 35 7.15 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.47 100 1.57 35 4.49 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 5.99 167 0.20 6 3.59 5.18
SALINAS 0.03 10.72 116 3.53 38 9.26 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.03 12.41 133 4.09 44 9.30 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.03 12.13 120 2.53 25 10.09 13.95
Next report: Monday afternoon/March 4