March 7, 2019
Summary: There are still some isolated residual light showers in Madera and Fresno Counties at this hour. The remainder of the valley is dry with even some sun shining through in some areas. The next weather system will begin to spread light showers in from the west this afternoon with another weak system moving in Friday and Friday evening. So, basically, from this afternoon through Friday evening there will be a chance of showers at any time. Most locations will record no more than .25 over the next 48 hours with isolated exceptions.
The system coming through Friday, even though weak, is quite cold. Snow levels, which currently are about 5,500 feet, will drop to as low as 3,000 feet. Later Friday night through Saturday, a weak ridge of upper level high pressure will move through for a brief period of dry weather. Models then show a cold system out of the Gulf of Alaska moving to a few hundred miles off the northern California coast Saturday evening. The low will open up into a northeast to southwest oriented trough and will move through central California Sunday and Sunday night and into southern California Monday. The chance for light showers will increase late Saturday night and continue through Sunday night and possibly Monday morning.
Just when you think the rain is over, another weather system will develop in the extreme eastern Gulf of Alaska then will slide southward partially over water. It will move into central California Tuesday night and Wednesday. This system will be very cold with very low snow levels with possibly at least local frost next Wednesday and Thursday mornings, though that’s tentative at this time.
After Wednesday, a big ridge of upper level high pressure will finally take shape. It will move inland for dry conditions through next weekend. All of the medium range models are indicating dry weather and finally some above average temperatures.
Forecast: Mostly to partly cloudy this morning. Light showers spreading in from the west this afternoon. Occasional light showers tonight through Friday evening. Mostly to partly cloudy Friday night. partly cloudy Saturday. Increasing cloudiness Saturday night. an increasing chance of showers late Saturday night through Monday morning. Partly cloudy Monday afternoon and night. increasing cloudiness Tuesday afternoon and evening leading to a chance of showers Tuesday night through Wednesday with low snow levels. Partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 62/44/57/35/58 | Reedley 61/43/56/36/56 | Dinuba 60/44/55/35/57 | |
| Porterville 61/43/57/34/57 | Lindsay 62/43/56/35/58 | Delano 61/44/57/37/57 | |
| Bakersfield 63/46/56/39/60 | Taft 62/47/56/39/61 | Arvin 62/45/55/38/61 | |
| Lamont 63/46/55/38/61 | Pixley 61/43/57/34/58 | Tulare 60/42/56/34/56 | |
| Woodlake 61/43/57/35/57 | Hanford 61/44/57/35/58 | Orosi 61/43/57/34/57 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Showers likely 42/57 |
Monday
AM showers 40/58 |
Tuesday
PM showers 42/61 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 34/58 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 34/63 |
Two Week Outlook: March 14 through March 20: For the first time in weeks, this model is indicating a pattern favoring dry weather. The general flow pattern as we move through the middle of the month will be out of the northwest, maintaining at least marginally below average temperatures.
March: February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting. The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Can you say “Ooops”? anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally variable in nature at 5 to 15 MPH through Friday with stronger gusts, mainly in the vicinity of showers. Winds will be out of the northwest Friday night at 5 to 10 MPH, diminishing after midnight. Winds will be generally less than 12 MPH Saturday then will be out of the southeast Saturday night and Sunday at 5 to 12 MPH.
Rain: Light showers will begin to spread in from the west this afternoon as the first of two weather systems moves through central California. One will move in this afternoon and tonight and the second Friday through Friday evening. There will be a chance of light showers at any time from late this afternoon through Friday evening. Definitely no pineapple connection this time around, so precipitation amounts will be generally at or less than .25 with the heaviest amounts along the east side north of Kern County. Dry weather will return Friday night, continuing through Saturday night. the chance of mainly light precipitation will begin again Sunday and last through Monday morning. Rainfall amounts are not expected to be all that impressive. Yet another in this endless stream of low pressure systems will arrive Tuesday night and Wednesday. This system will track southward from the Gulf of Alaska, partially over water. Rainfall amounts, again, will be on the light side. This system will be quite cold with low snow levels. After Wednesday, the water tap is supposed to be shut off for a while as upper level high pressure finally takes over with dry weather not only next weekend, but possibly through the following week.
Frost Discussion: The weather system moving through Friday is cold and so is the air mass behind it. But it’s nothing too unusual for this time of year. Where skies clear for several hours Saturday morning, lows will drop into the mid to upper 30s with a chance of lower 30s in the coldest locations. Sunday through Tuesday mornings will be above freezing due to cloud cover. We will have to watch Wednesday through Thursday of next week as it appears a very cold low may slide southward partially overland and arrive Tuesday night and Wednesday with very low snow levels. Widespread low to mid 30s would not be a surprise Wednesday and Thursday with a small chance of upper 20s. for now, this is quite tentative as models will definitely yo yo around in trying to nail down a particular pattern.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 60%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 60%/85%
Actual Humidity March 6, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 97%/49%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 10%, tomorrow 30% Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .43, Parlier .50, Blackwell .44, Lindcove .35, Arvin 50, Orange Cove .37, Porterville .41, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 57, Blackwell 54, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 57, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 84/30. Average Temperatures: 66/43
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1785 -437
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for March so far: 56.8 +3.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 8.76 season. or +.64. Month to Date: .94 +.51
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 5.75, or +1.13. Month to Date: 1.87 +1.61
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 878, Parlier, 845 , Arvin, 804 Shafter, 848 Stratford, 846, Lindcove, 1179, Porterville, 1647
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:20 am Sunset: 6:00 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:37
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 70 / 57 / 0.02 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 67 / 54 / 0.08 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 68 / 53 / 0.44 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 67 / 51 / 0.08 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 72 / 54 / 1.11 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 69 / 53 / 0.63 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 62 / 50 / 0.33 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 69 / 54 / 1.17 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1554 / 71 / 50 / 0.73 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 68 / 51 / 0.03 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.14 13.99 133 5.60 53 10.50 14.06
MODESTO 0.25 10.65 112 4.45 47 9.55 13.11
MERCED T 10.41 116 3.82 42 8.99 12.50
MADERA 0.02 8.27 93 3.29 37 8.85 12.02
FRESNO 0.07 8.76 108 3.22 40 8.12 11.50
HANFORD 0.12 7.09 96 2.52 34 7.37 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.42 5.75 124 1.57 34 4.62 6.47
BISHOP 0.81 7.39 202 0.20 5 3.66 5.18
SALINAS 0.01 10.80 114 3.56 37 9.50 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.27 13.10 137 4.09 43 9.59 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.23 13.40 129 2.53 24 10.40 13.95
Next report: Thursday afternoon/March 7