March 8, 2019
Summary: Most of the valley has dried out. The only showers showing up on radar are currently in southeastern Tulare County and Kern County. These will end over the next couple of hours with just lingering showers over the Sierra Nevada during the day. Freezing levels have fallen to 3,800 feet this morning. Tehachapi is currently reporting a wintery mix while Sandburg right about Gorman is reporting a temperature of 30 degrees, so check ahead if you’re heading towards LA. Rainfall amounts from this latest storm were generally light, however isolated thunderstorms pounded parts of Tulare County. Porterville picked up .89 and Lake Success just above Porterville 1.62. Other rainfall totals are summarized in the rain discussion.
A brief ridge of high pressure will take over tonight and Saturday. This will allow skies to clear in at least some areas overnight. With a relatively cold air mass now in place, where it clears, temperatures will drop into the 30s with a chance of lower 30s in the typical trouble spots with no winds and no cloud cover.
The next low will be just west of San Francisco Saturday night. quantitative precipitation estimates with this system are very meager, meaning this storm will be moisture starved. Still, there will be a chance of light showers Saturday night through Sunday night. another very temporary ridge of high pressure will fill in behind this system Monday and Monday night.
After that, we look north to a system skirting the British Columbia coast, possibly entering California as an inside slider, meaning most of the energy will either be over the Sierra Nevada or in western Nevada. Still, I do feel there will be a chance of showers with this system Tuesday into early Wednesday then upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific will then build to the north and east, finally putting an end to this string of storms we’ve had since the first of the year. All of this has resulted in a magnificent snow pack which will, in turn , result in a good water year if the government can keep its hands off of it.
Well below average temperatures will continue at least through Thursday under a north/northwest flow aloft then finally a warming trend will begin Friday and beyond with readings possibly finally being above average week after next.
Forecast: A chance of showers over the next few hours in southeastern Tulare County and Kern County, otherwise it will be partly cloudy today. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy tonight through Saturday. Increasing cloudiness Saturday night with a chance of scattered light showers after midnight. A chance of scattered light showers Sunday and Sunday evening. Becoming partly cloudy late Sunday night through Monday night. increasing cloudiness Tuesday leading to a chance of showers Tuesday night and Wednesday. Partly cloudy Wednesday night. becoming mostly clear Thursday through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 56/34/57/40/58 | Reedley 57/34/57/41/58 | Dinuba 56/33/56/40/58 | |
| Porterville 57/34/57/41/59 | Lindsay 56/32/57/40/60 | Delano 57/35/58/41/60 | |
| Bakersfield 55/39/58/43/61 | Taft 57/40/58/44/60 | Arvin 55/37/58/42/60 | |
| Lamont 56/38/58/43/61 | Pixley 56/34/57/40/59 | Tulare 55/32/55/39/58 | |
| Woodlake 56/34/57/39/58 | Hanford 57/35/57/40/60 | Orosi 55/32/57/39/59 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Partly cloudy 39/58 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 42/57 |
Wednesday
AM showers possible 42/58 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 36/60 |
Friday
Mostly clear 39/66 |
Two Week Outlook: March 15 through March 21: For the first time in weeks, this model is indicating a pattern favoring dry weather. The general flow pattern as we move through the middle of the month will be out of the northwest, maintaining at least marginally below average temperatures.
March: February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting. The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Can you say “Ooops”? anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest today at 5 to 12 MPH. winds tonight will be generally less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Saturday through Monday will be generally in the 5 to 12 MPH range late mornings and afternoons and in the 5 to 10 MPH range during the overnight hours with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Rainfall amounts as of 5:00am for the past 24 hours are as follows: Bakersfield .04, Buttonwillow .03, Porterville .89, Lake Success 1.62, Tulare .44, Fresno .05, Reedley .21, Visalia .20, Hanford .20, Lemoore .06, Huron .06, and Five Points .08.
As you can see by the rainfall totals, most locations picked up light amounts. Isolated thunderstorms over Tulare County late yesterday afternoon and evening dumped heavy rain and hail on a few locations. There is still a chance of light showers over southeast Tulare County and Kern County over the next few hours, but by and large, this event is over. Dry weather will continue tonight through Saturday then the next in the parade will arrive late Saturday night and Sunday.
Precipitation from this system, if any falls at all, will be very light and scattered with most locations picking up less than .10. We will then enjoy another dry slot Sunday afternoon through Monday evening.
The next, and what appears to be last in the parade, will arrive Monday night through early Wednesday. This storm is what we call an inside slider as most of the energy with systems like this slides over the Sierra Nevada and points eastward. So, it appears, this storm will be far enough into California for a chance of showers late Monday night through early Wednesday.
We will begin a prolonged period of dry weather Wednesday afternoon that should last for the next week and, if models hold, through the following week, as well.
Frost Discussion: Skies will be mostly clear tonight. However, we may see u pslope clouds against the foothills of the Sierra Nevada, mostly in Tulare County, and banking up against the valley facing slopes of the Kern County mountains. The northwest flow behind the current storm may keep some cloud cover in those areas all night. however, in those areas that do clear and where winds are calm, temperatures will drop into the 30s tonight. Colder locations such as river bottom and low lying locations could dip into the lower 30s, but no general freeze or frost is expected. For Sunday morning and beyond, we can expect frost free conditions. It’s possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings could see coldest locations in the mid to upper 30w, but above freezing conditions appear to be likely.
Longer term, it does not appear a pattern will evolve that will bring frost or freeze conditions to the valley short or long term.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
Af |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
32 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
32 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
AF |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
AF |
AF=Above Freezing
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Mid to upper 30s. Humidity values ranging from 50%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 50%/90%
Actual Humidity March 7, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 97%/49%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 60% Bakersfield: Today: 60% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .42, Parlier .48, Blackwell .44, Lindcove .31, Arvin 60, Orange Cove .34, Porterville .39, Delano .NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 57, Blackwell 55, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 57, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 58, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 84/29. Average Temperatures: 66/43
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1797 -436
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for March so far: 56.3 +2.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 8.76 season. or +.57. Month to Date: .94 +.44
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 5.79, or +1.13. Month to Date: 1.91 +1.61
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 878, Parlier, 845 , Arvin, 804 Shafter, 848 Stratford, 846, Lindcove, 1179, Porterville, 1647
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:19 am Sunset: 6:01 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:39
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 64 / 49 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 62 / 46 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 63 / 43 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 61 / 43 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 65 / 48 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 61 / 45 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 60 / 41 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 62 / 47 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1553 / 60 / 47 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 58 / 49 / 0.12 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON T 13.99 132 5.60 53 10.57 14.06
MODESTO 0.01 10.66 111 4.45 46 9.62 13.11
MERCED 0.28 10.69 118 3.82 42 9.06 12.50
MADERA T 8.27 93 3.29 37 8.93 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 8.76 107 3.22 39 8.19 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 7.09 95 2.52 34 7.43 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.75 123 1.57 34 4.66 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 7.41 201 0.20 5 3.68 5.18
SALINAS 0.10 10.92 114 3.56 37 9.58 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.02 13.12 136 4.09 42 9.68 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.13 13.53 129 2.53 24 10.50 13.95
Next report: Friday afternoon/March 8