March 14, 2019
Summary: Even though it was a chilly night last night with many locations ranging from 33 to 37 and a few locations brushing with the 32 degree mark, above the valley floor the air mass continues to warm. The latest freezing level over Vandenberg was 9,700 feet. Upper level high pressure continues to slowly build eastward over the western U.S. via the eastern Pacific Ocean. An upper level low will spread some high clouds over the area later tonight and Friday with the center of that circulation pattern moving through northern Baja during the early part of the weekend.
The high will strengthen Sunday and Monday with above average temperatures for a change. More than likely, the warmest day we’ll see for a while will be Tuesday as a southerly flow develops ahead of a trough of low pressure digging southward from the Gulf of Alaska. We could possibly see some light showers by Wednesday. The extreme southern portion of the trough will pinch off Thursday, forming a new low off the southern and central California coast. Eventually, it will move southeastward through the Desert Southwest next weekend.
Another trough will extend southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska next weekend, continuing the risk of mainly light showers. It does appear we’ll have yet another period of unsettled weather beginning Wednesday and lasting through Sunday followed by several days of dry weather.
The two week outlook, however, which goes out through the 27 is indicating a fairly high risk of precipitation for the last week in March.
Forecast: Mostly clear today and tonight. A mix of high clouds Friday and Friday night. mostly clear Saturday through Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night leading to a chance of showers Wednesday through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 65/37/68/41/72 | Reedley 66/37/68/41/71 | Dinuba 64/36/68/40/71 | |
| Porterville 66/38/68/41/73 | Lindsay 66/36/69/41/72 | Delano 66/38/68/42/73 | |
| Bakersfield 66/42/69/45/74 | Taft 67/43/70/46/73 | Arvin 67/39/69/42/74 | |
| Lamont 68/39/70/43/74 | Pixley 66/37/68/42/72 | Tulare 64/36/68/41/71 | |
| Woodlake 65/38/69/42/72 | Hanford 66/38/68/42/72 | Orosi 65/37/67/41/71 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday Mostly clear 43/75 |
Monday
Mostly clear 44/76 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 47/79 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 51/72 |
Thursday
Chance of showers 49/68 |
Two Week Outlook: March 20 through March 26: This model indicates the possibility of off and on unsettled weather for a reasonable chance of rain during this time frame. It also indicates temperatures will be close to seasonal averages.
March: February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting. The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Can you say “Ooops”? anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 12 MPH late mornings and afternoons through Sunday. During the night and early morning hours, winds will be less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Dry conditions will continue through Thursday night. a trough of low pressure from the Gulf of Alaska will approach the California coast Wednesday for a small chance of light showers. That trough is expected to form a new low circulation off the central and southern California coast Thursday into Friday, maintaining a chance of showers. As that storm moves into the Desert Southwest, a new trough shows up on models for Saturday and Sunday of next week for a continued possibility of showers. Models show dry weather for several days after that, but the two week model is indicating there will be a good possibility of showers the last week of the month.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing tonight, but only slightly above in some of the coldest low lying locations. A slow warming trend will continue through Tuesday. For now, there’s nothing on modeling information indicating the possibility of an air mass moving in that would result in below freezing temperatures.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 30s. Low to mid 30s. Humidity values ranging from 35%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 30%/75%
Actual Humidity March 13, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 93%/42%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 0% Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .83, Parlier .82, Blackwell .78, Lindcove .65, Arvin .78, Orange Cove .74, Porterville .76. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 54, Blackwell 53, Lindcove, 58, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 56.
Record Temperatures: 88/29. Average Temperatures: 67/44
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1883 +411
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for March so far: 53.6 -0.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 8.90 season. or +.27. Month to Date: 1.08 +.14
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 5.80, or +.88. Month to Date: 1.92 +1.36
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 7:10 am Sunset: 7:06 pm. Hours of Daylight: 11:52
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 65 / 39 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 61 / 42 / 0.01 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 63 / 37 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 62 / 36 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 61 / 40 / T /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 61 / 39 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1658 / 60 / 44 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 61 / 35 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1658 / 59 / 42 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 61 / 42 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 14.00 127 5.97 54 11.04 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 10.76 107 4.84 48 10.07 13.11
MERCED 0.00 11.05 116 4.10 43 9.53 12.50
MADERA 0.00 8.66 93 3.61 39 9.33 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 8.90 103 3.33 39 8.63 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 7.23 93 2.67 34 7.78 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.80 118 1.85 38 4.92 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 7.41 195 0.20 5 3.80 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 11.51 114 3.68 37 10.07 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 13.34 130 4.83 47 10.26 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 13.56 122 3.04 27 11.08 13.95
Next report: Thursday afternoon/March 14