March 18, 2019
Summary: Temperatures this afternoon are running 2 to 5 degrees higher than 24 hours ago. Many locations as of 1:00pm were already in the mid 70s, so a number of areas will top the 80 degree mark by the time this day is through. The leading edge of the cloud shield is roughly 250 miles west of the central coast and will move inland tonight with showers spreading from west to east across the valley as the night wears on. The main trough which extends from the Gulf of Alaska to off the southern California coast will move inland Wednesday and Wednesday night with periods of showers. As the cooler air begins to move in aloft, especially Wednesday afternoon and evening, and daytime heating begins to occur, the chance for isolated spring thunderstorms will increase. They will be isolated but if and where they occur, localized heavy rain and small hail will be likely.
The chance for showers will last into early Thursday morning, lasting into the afternoon over the Sierra Nevada. A weak ridge of high pressure will begin to build in from the west Thursday night, lasting through Friday night before the next trough moves inland into the Pacific Northwest and northern California late Friday night through Saturday night. the main dynamics of this storm will be to our north, but even so, showers will be likely from Fresno County northward. Generally speaking, the farther south you progress, the less the chance of measurable rain.
The next ridge will then build inland Sunday and Monday for another round of dry weather and warmer temperatures. Models vary a great deal on a pattern for late Monday through the latter part of next week. It appears an unsettled weather pattern will dominate with waves of low pressure moving in from the Pacific from time to time for periodic bouts of showers. In fact, if models are correct, unsettled weather may actually last through the first couple of days of April.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness late tonight. A chance of showers by Tuesday afternoon, becoming likely Tuesday night and Wednesday. A chance of showers Wednesday night into Thursday. Partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday night. a chance of showers late Friday night through Saturday night, mainly from Fresno County northward. Becoming partly cloudy Sunday through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 49/77/53/65 | Reedley 50/75/53/65 | Dinuba 49/75/52/64 | |
| Porterville 49/76/53/66 | Lindsay 48/77/53/66 | Delano 51/77/53/65 | |
| Bakersfield 54/79/54/66 | Taft 54/79/55/66 | Arvin 51/79/54/66 | |
| Lamont 51/79/54/65 | Pixley 49/77/53/64 | Tulare 49/75/52/64 | |
| Woodlake 48/76/52/65 | Hanford 49/77/53/65 | Orosi 48/75/52/64 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally less than 8 MPH tonight with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Tuesday will be out of the southeast at 10 to 15 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH possible along the west side. There is a chance local gusts to near 45 MPH may occur near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains, especially at places like the bottom of the Grapevine. Winds late Tuesday night through Wednesday will be mainly out of the south to southeast at 10 to 15 MPH then will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH late Wednesday through Thursday.
Rain: Partly cloudy tonight with increasing cloudiness Tuesday and a chance of showers late in the afternoon. Showers likely later Tuesday night and at times through Thursday. Dry weather will return later Thursday, lasting through at least Friday night. there will be the likelihood of showers from Fresno County northward with a chance further south from Saturday through Saturday evening. Any amounts will be generally light. For now, it appears Sunday and Monday of next week will be dry. It will then be possible we may see on and off precipitation from Tuesday through about Friday of next week, although the strength and timing of these disturbances have yet to be determined. It looks like on and off unsettled weather will last into early April, if the two week model is accurate.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees.
Next report: Tuesday morning/March 19