March 19, 2019
Summary: Clouds continue to increase ahead of a negatively tilted trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the California coast. Showers will initially spill into the west side of the valley tonight then will work their way eastward with showers continuing through Wednesday morning. A developing secondary low will move through central California Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. With a few breaks in the overcast Wednesday afternoon destabilizing the atmosphere, thunderstorms will become likely Wednesday afternoon and evening. Scattered showers will continue Wednesday night through Thursday morning.
Strong, gusty winds are currently buffeting the Kern County mountains and may make it down to the valley portion of Kern County late this afternoon and tonight as pressure differences tighten up between the interior west and the approaching low. Winds of 40 to 50 MPH cannot be ruled out near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains westward to around Taft. Gusts to 35 MPH are possible as far north as Bakersfield. Gusty winds will also pick up along the west side winds will begin to die off Wednesday morning as the trough moves inland, equalizing pressure differences.
The trough will move east of the Sierra Nevada Thursday afternoon with a return to dry weather through Friday night. a weak low will move into northern California late Friday night and Saturday. There will be a decent chance of light showers from Fresno County northward with a minimal chance of showers as far south as Kern County.
Sunday through at least Tuesday night will be dry with a warming trend as another high moves in from the eastern Pacific. Models are still indicating the possibility of a significant low off the northern California coast about Wednesday or Thursday of next week. Ramifications right now are unclear but at least a chance of showers seems plausible for late Wednesday through Thursday. The new two week outlook this afternoon is calling for a reasonably decent chance of above average precipitation from the 27 through April 2.
Forecast: Showers spreading in from the west/southwest tonight. Showers likely Wednesday with a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Any thunderstorms will be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail. Scattered showers Wednesday night with a chance of showers Thursday morning. Partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday night through Friday night. mostly cloudy with a chance of showers late Friday night through Saturday night, mainly from Fresno County northward. Partly cloudy Sunday. Mostly clear Sunday night through Tuesday night.
Short Term:
| Madera 54/65/47/64 | Reedley 53/67/47/65 | Dinuba 53/66/47/64 | |
| Porterville 53/67/47/65 | Lindsay 53/67/46/64 | Delano 54/68/47/65 | |
| Bakersfield 55/68/50/64 | Taft 55/67/50/63 | Arvin 54/67/50/63 | |
| Lamont 54/66/48/63 | Pixley 53/67/47/64 | Tulare 53/66/47/64 | |
| Woodlake 53/66/46/63 | Hanford 53/66/46/63 | Orosi 53/66/46/63 | |
Winds: Winds tonight will increase out of the southeast at 15 to 25 MPH with gusts to 35 MPH possible along the west side and from Fresno County north. Over the valley portion of Kern County, winds will be mainly out of the southeast tonight at 15 to 30 MPH with local gusts to 45 to 50 MPH possible near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains. Winds Wednesday through Thursday will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH possible near showers and especially near thunderstorms. Winds Thursday night and Friday will be generally at or less than 12 MPH.
Rain: The chance of showers will increase as we head into the later evening hours with periods of showers Wednesday through Thursday morning. There will be a chance of isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. Most of the action should be over by roughly midday Thursday. Rainfall amounts will range from around .25 to .33 north of Kern County and east of the Interstate 5 corridor and about .10 to .20 in the valley portion of Kern County. Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. Dry weather will return Thursday afternoon through late Friday evening. Light showers will be likely from Fresno County north late Friday night through Saturday night with a lesser chance southward into Kern County. Dry weather will prevail Sunday through Tuesday night with an increasing chance of rain again later Wednesday through Thursday of next week.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees.
Next report: Wednesday morning/March 20