Summary: Much cooler air is moving in above the valley floor at this hour. The freezing level went from roughly 9,500 feet over Oakland 24 hours ago to 5,600 feet now. The freezing level is also dropping over Vandenberg where the latest reading is down to 6,400 feet. Doppler radar is showing several bands of showers extending from the base of the Tehachapi Mountains on the south to Merced County on the north, generally west of Highway 99. There are several spots out there where showers have almost reached thunderstorm capacity and will no doubt do so over the next several hours.
The weather will remain active for the rest of the afternoon and through the night as a very slow moving trough finally makes its move into Nevada Thursday. Weak upper level high pressure will take over late Thursday through Friday. However, the pattern remains very progressive. That does not mean the pattern is liberal, but simply on the move as lows and highs move generally eastward from the Pacific Ocean and into California from time to time.
The next in the series will arrive late Friday night and Saturday. The main dynamics of this system will remain in northern California. However, the latest high resolution models indicate a chance of light precipitation will exist all the way down to the Kern County mountains. Then, just like clockwork, a weak ridge of high pressure will move in for Sunday and Monday before the next, what appears to be fairly weak, system stretches from the Gulf of Alaska south to central California late Monday night and Tuesday. Yet another will move through later Wednesday night through Thursday night. the last system I mentioned has the greatest potential for a more significant precipitation event, especially over the Sierra Nevada.
The new two week outlook this afternoon is still leaning towards unsettled weather on and off for late March and early April so no doubt when the April 1 snow survey comes around next week, a very abundant snow pack will be found which will come as no surprise to anyone.
Forecast: Periods of showers tonight with a chance of isolated thunderstorms. Showers ending by midnight. Becoming partly cloudy later Thursday through Friday. Increasing cloudiness Friday night. light showers likely late Friday night through Saturday night. partly cloudy Sunday through Monday. Increasing cloudiness Monday night with light showers again becoming likely Tuesday. A chance of showers Tuesday night. becoming partly cloudy Wednesday with increasing clouds again Wednesday night.
Short Term:
| Madera 45/63/41/65 | Reedley 46/64/41/66 | Dinuba 44/64/41/65 | |
| Porterville 44/64/41/66 | Lindsay 43/64/40/67 | Delano 46/65/43/67 | |
| Bakersfield 49/65/44/67 | Taft 48/63/46/67 | Arvin 46/64/43/66 | |
| Lamont 47/63/44/68 | Pixley 45/64/42/67 | Tulare 44/64/41/65 | |
| Woodlake 45/63/42/65 | Hanford 45/65/42/66 | Orosi 44/63/40/66 | |
Winds: Winds will be variable at no more than 10 MPH tonight with periods of near calm conditions after midnight. Winds Thursday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 10 MPH. Winds Thursday night through Friday night will be less than 10 MPH afternoons and evenings and 7 MPH nights and mornings. Winds Saturday will be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts possible north of Fresno and along the west side.
Rain: Bands of showers are moving from west to east across the valley. Forward movement is no more than 10 MPH. a few isolated small thunderstorms have developed in western Fresno and Merced Counties and no doubt a few other cells will develop as the afternoon and evening wear on. There’s a small chance of a few showers for a time Thursday morning but dry weather will return later Thursday morning through Friday night. light showers will be possible again late Friday night through Saturday night, especially from Fresno County northward. Precipitation amounts with this system will also be non-impressive. Dry weather will return Sunday through Monday with another bout of light showers Monday night and Tuesday and yet another late Wednesday through Thursday night. the latter has higher potential for possibly producing significant precipitation, especially over the Sierra Nevada. The medium range outlook for late March and early April continues to show an open storm door from the eastern Pacific Ocean.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees.
Next report: Thursday morning/March 21