March 22, 2019
Summary: High clouds are already increasing ahead of the next Pacific low pressure system which is approaching the Oregon/northern California coast. Most of the high clouds are associated with the jet stream, so no precipitation will occur today. However, the chance of light showers will increase later tonight.
A rapidly weakening cold front will move down the valley Saturday, renewing the risk of light showers, especially from Fresno County north. Measurable rain in the south valley cannot be ruled out.
Beginning Monday, a low center will park off the Oregon coast with a moist, southwesterly flow underneath the low moving into northern and central California. Disturbances will be embedded within this flow, resulting in a chance of showers from time to time, especially late Monday night through Wednesday. The main dynamics of these disturbances will remain in northern California, so significant precipitation is not expected until possibly sometime later Wednesday through Thursday night. medium range models indicate that system may tap into the subtropics, moving moisture towards the northeast into northern and central California. This is the type of system where orographics along the Sierra Nevada will be ideal for the possibility of significant rain over the higher elevations along with high elevation snow.
Beginning Friday of next week, upper level high pressure will show up and dominate the pattern through the weekend after next and through the following week.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness today. Light showers tonight and Saturday. Mostly to partly cloudy Saturday night. mostly clear Sunday with the possible exception of southeast Tulare County and Kern County which may not clear out until Sunday afternoon. Mostly clear Sunday night and Monday morning. Increasing cloudiness Monday afternoon leading to a chance of light showers Tuesday through Wednesday. Showers becoming likely late Wednesday night through Thursday night. partly cloudy Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 67/60/63/41/68 | Reedley 67/49/64/40/68 | Dinuba 66/49/63/40/68 | |
| Porterville 68/51/64/39/69 | Lindsay 67/50/64/39/70 | Delano 68/52/65/42/69 | |
| Bakersfield 69/53/62/44/70 | Taft 68/53/63/46/71 | Arvin 69/53/63/42/70 | |
| Lamont 69/53/63/43/70 | Pixley 68/52/62/41/70 | Tulare 67/50/64/39/68 | |
| Woodlake 67/53/64/41/68 | Hanford 67/52/63/41/68 | Orosi 66/50/64/38/69 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Partly cloudy 44/74 |
Tuesday
Light showers 50/71 |
Wednesday
Showers likely 51/69 |
Thursday
Showers likely 45/64 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 43/70 |
Two Week Outlook: March 29 through April 4: This model indicates a fairly active weather pattern will continue. The flow pattern at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will be out of the west or southwest, maintaining temperatures generally above average.
March: February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting. The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Can you say “Ooops”? anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be variable today through Monday at 5 to 15 MPH afternoons and evenings and 0 to 5 MPH nights and mornings.
Rain: Clouds are already increasing ahead of the next Pacific storm to add a little bit of water to central California totals. The main dynamics of this storm will again be to our north, so just light precipitation is expected. The chance of showers will increase this evening and will continue through Saturday.
Rainfall amounts north of Kern County will be no more than a tenth or two with possibly just a few hundredths over the valley portion of Kern County.
Dry weather will return Saturday night and continue through Monday. A series of disturbances will move through northern and central California Monday night through Wednesday. There will be a chance of light showers any time from Monday night through Wednesday. Wednesday night through Thursday night, some models are suggesting the possible development of a tropical connection. This would result in possibly significant precipitation up and down the Sierra Nevada and possibly significant rain on the valley floor, although on paper this looks to be a strong rain shadow event.
From next Friday through the early part of the following week it looks like dry conditions will prevail, but the two week model is suggesting the possibility of showers towards the end of March and into early April.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next seven to ten days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 40%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 40%/85%
Actual Humidity March 21, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 94%/58%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 80% Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .97, Parlier 1.00, Blackwell NA, Lindcove .83, Arvin 1.00, Orange Cove .88, Porterville .96, Delano NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 57, Blackwell 53, Lindcove, 59, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 58, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 83/30. Average Temperatures: 69/44
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1947 +422
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for March so far: 54.8 -0.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 8.96 season. or -.20. Month to Date: 1.14 -.33
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 5.83, or +.59. Month to Date: 1.95 +1.07
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:58 am Sunset: 7:13 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:11
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 60 / 46 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 56 / 49 / T /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 55 / 48 / 0.05 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 67 / 44 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 51 / 48 / 0.02 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 64 / 48 / 0.03 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1654 / 64 / 52 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 63 / 48 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1654 / 62 / 46 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 66 / 44 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 14.38 124 6.98 60 11.59 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 10.88 103 5.40 51 10.60 13.11
MERCED 0.00 11.21 112 4.91 49 10.00 12.50
MADERA 0.00 9.36 97 5.58 58 9.69 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 8.96 98 5.02 55 9.16 11.50
HANFORD 0.02 7.31 90 3.99 49 8.13 10.10
BAKERSFIELD T 5.83 111 3.45 66 5.24 6.47
BISHOP 0.01 7.55 193 0.20 5 3.92 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 11.89 112 4.96 47 10.66 12.83
PASO ROBLES M M M M M M 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.09 13.94 119 4.64 39 11.76 13.95
Next report: Friday afternoon/March 22