March 23, 2019
Summary: A weakening cold front is currently moving eastward through the valley and will be out of here by noon. Precipitation amounts will be light with only a few hundredths possible to nothing at all in Kern County and possibly even southern Tulare County. Dry weather will return this afternoon as a flat zone of high pressure builds in from the west. Temperatures behind the cold front this afternoon will be a bit cooler with most locations ending up in the mid 60s. As the high takes over tonight through Monday, temperatures will warm accordingly with readings near 70 Sunday and in the mid 70s Monday.
Weak weather impulses will move through northern California from time to time Monday afternoon through Tuesday night. there will be a minimal chance of light showers Monday afternoon and night from Fresno County northward but it appears the south valley will remain dry.
On Wednesday, a strong low will be centered off the northern California coast with a strong southwest to northeast jet stream flanking underneath the low and into central California. It still appears subtropical moisture will be swept northeastward, enhancing possible precipitation amounts Wednesday through Thursday. The high Sierra should pick up heavy amounts of snow as well as significant amounts of rain below the snow line. On the valley floor, some models are suggesting upwards to .50 or so in eastern Madera and Fresno Counties. With the winds aloft sweeping over the Coast Range, a strong rain shadow will develop along the west side and in Kern County where rainfall amounts will be considerably less.
It now looks like a flat zone of upper level high pressure will set up over the eastern Pacific and into California Friday through next weekend and possibly into the first few days of the following week. Models still indicate an active pattern will be prevalent the first week in April with above average precipitation.
Forecast: Light showers likely this morning north of Kern County with a chance of a few isolated showers in Kern County. Partly cloudy this afternoon and tonight. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday through Monday morning. Increasing cloudiness Monday afternoon with a small chance of light showers from Fresno County north Monday afternoon and night. partly cloudy Tuesday. Showers likely Tuesday night through Wednesday night with a chance of showers Thursday. Partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday morning. Becoming mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 64/39/70/43/75 | Reedley 65/39/70/44/74 | Dinuba 63/38/69/43/74 | |
| Porterville 65/38/71/43/76 | Lindsay 65/37/69/43/75 | Delano 65/42/71/44/76 | |
| Bakersfield 64/44/70/47/78 | Taft 64/46/71/47/77 | Arvin 66/40/71/44/77 | |
| Lamont 65/42/71/44/77 | Pixley 65/39/69/43/74 | Tulare 63/38/69/43/73 | |
| Woodlake 64/39/70/43/75 | Hanford 65/40/70/44/75 | Orosi 64/39/70/43/74 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Partly cloudy 47/71 |
Wednesday
Showers likely 53/68 |
Thursday
Showers likely 43/67 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 43/68 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 43/71 |
Two Week Outlook: March 29 through April 4: This model indicates a fairly active weather pattern will continue. The flow pattern at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere will be out of the west or southwest, maintaining temperatures generally above average.
March: February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting. The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Can you say “Ooops”? anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be variable today through Tuesday at 5 to 15 MPH afternoons and evenings and 0 to 5 MPH nights and mornings.
Rain: A weakening cold front is spreading light showers from the west side of Kings County up through central Fresno and Madera Counties at this hour. The southern portion of the front or the portion moving through the valley is very weak so rainfall amounts will be confined to the morning hours and will be rather sparse. Precipitation amounts in Kern County will be 0 to no more than a few hundredths. Kings and Tulare Counties will generally pick up no more than .10 with upwards of .20 in eastern Fresno and Madera Counties. Dry weather will return this afternoon through at least Monday morning. There is a small chance of light showers from Fresno County north later Monday and Monday night. for now, conditions for Tuesday look dry with showers becoming likely Tuesday night through Wednesday night as a much stronger system plows through. This storm may very well have a tropical connection and with a very moist southwest flow, orographic lift will wring out heavy amounts of high elevation snow and lower elevation rains over the foothills. Some models suggest .50 over portions of Madera and Fresno Counties during this event. It is the type of storm where rain shadows will be prevalent along the west side and in Kern County, so for now it looks like rainfall amounts there will be considered to be less. Showers will diminish Thursday morning with dry weather Thursday night through the weekend and possibly through Monday and Tuesday of the following week. The two week model is adamant about above average rainfall for the first week in April.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next seven to ten days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 45%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 50%/90%
Actual Humidity March 21, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 98%/40%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 80% Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .95, Parlier .96, Blackwell NA, Lindcove .81, Arvin .98, Orange Cove .85, Porterville .94, Delano NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 58, Blackwell 53, Lindcove, 59, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 59, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 83/30. Average Temperatures: 69/44
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1958 +420
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for March so far: 54.8 -0.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 8.96 season. or -.26. Month to Date: 1.14 -.39
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 5.83, or +.56. Month to Date: 1.95 +1.04
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:57 am Sunset: 7:14 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:13
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 70 / 43 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 67 / 44 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 66 / 39 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 67 / 39 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 69 / 47 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 66 / 41 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / 67 / 41 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 68 / 41 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 67 / 47 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 63 / 44 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON T 14.38 123 7.25 62 11.65 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 10.88 102 5.55 52 10.65 13.11
MERCED 0.00 11.21 112 5.53 55 10.05 12.50
MADERA 0.00 9.36 96 6.51 67 9.73 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 8.96 97 6.08 66 9.22 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 7.31 90 4.41 54 8.16 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.83 111 3.73 71 5.27 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 7.55 192 0.82 21 3.93 5.18
SALINAS T 11.89 111 5.18 48 10.73 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 13.70 125 9.42 86 10.98 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 13.94 118 5.60 47 11.83 13.95
Next report: Saturday afternoon/March 23