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Forecast

March 23, 2019/pm report

March 23, 2019

Summary:  What is left of a Pacific cold front has stalled over the valley, resulting in light showers hanging on through the afternoon, especially in Kern County but isolated light showers are showing up elsewhere.  Twenty four hour rainfall amounts are puny with most locations recording less than .05.  The lone exception is Madera which has recorded .16.

 

The front will finally track into the Sierra Nevada by the end of the afternoon with dry weather returning tonight through most of Monday.  Lingering clouds will be slow to clear tonight and they may still be over portions of the area into Sunday morning.

 

Beginning Monday, a strong low center will be parked off the Oregon/northern California coast.  It’s possible some light showers could spread as far south as Fresno County late Monday and Monday night, but by and large it appears it will be Tuesday before precipitation begins to spread slowly to the south.  Late Tuesday night through Wednesday night, heavy precipitation will occur over northern California north of a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line.  Some models indicate as much as five inches of rain may fall along the north facing slopes of the northern Sierra Nevada during this time frame with much less precip over the southern Sierra.  If you average out this afternoon’s models as opposed to this morning’s, the dynamics of next week’s event have moved just a tad further north.  Still, it appears likely precipitation will occur over the entire valley, especially Wednesday and Wednesday night.

 

Along with strong winter storms come strong rain shadows and that will be the case with this event with much lighter amounts along the west side and especially in Kern County.  The rain line will begin to inch further north Thursday afternoon through Friday with dry weather over the weekend and into the first couple of days of next week as a flat zone of high pressure settles in over the eastern Pacific and rain moves into the Pacific Northwest and northern California from time to time.

 

Forecast:  Mostly to partly cloudy tonight and Sunday morning.  Mostly clear Sunday afternoon and Sunday night.  increasing cloudiness later Monday with a chance of light showers from Fresno County north.  Mostly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday with showers spreading southward Tuesday night, continuing Wednesday and Wednesday night.  a chance of showers Thursday, mainly during the first half of the day.  Partly to mostly cloudy Thursday night and Friday morning. Partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Saturday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 40/67/43/75 Reedley 39/69/44/75 Dinuba 38/68/44/74
Porterville 39/70/44/76 Lindsay 38/70/43/75 Delano 41/70/45/75
Bakersfield 47/71/47/76 Taft 46/70/47/75 Arvin 43/71/44/77
Lamont 43/70/45/77 Pixley 39/69/44/75 Tulare 38/68/44/74
Woodlake 39/69/44/75 Hanford 40/70/44/75 Orosi 39/69/43/74

 

Winds: Winds will be variable today through Tuesday at 5 to 15 MPH afternoons and evenings and 0 to 5 MPH nights and mornings.

 

Rain: Expect dry weather tonight and probably through Monday, although there is a small chance of light showers from Fresno County north Monday afternoon and evening.  Showers will begin to progressively spread further south late Tuesday and Tuesday night, finally reaching Fresno County during the early morning hours.  Periods of rain can be expected Wednesday through Wednesday night with a chance of showers Thursday, mainly during the first part of the day.  From Tuesday night through Thursday, as much as .50 is possible in eastern Fresno and Madera Counties with generally less than .25 along the west side and no more than a tenth or two in Kern County.  Tulare county could tally up about a quarter of an inch.  From Thursday night through next weekend, dry conditions can be expected.  The first week in April is mixed, depending upon model of choice with some models leaning dry and others showing a chance of rain from time to time.

 

Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees.    

 

Next report: Sunday morning/March 24