March 24, 2019
Summary: Yesterday’s weather system has moved into the Great Basin, allowing upper level high pressure to begin to build in from the southwest. Not a bad day on tap as dry weather will prevail more than likely through Monday night with a warming trend.
Beginning Monday, a potent low pressure system will be off the Oregon/northern California coast. Northern California will record heavy amounts of rain and high elevation snow from Tuesday night through Wednesday night. precipitation amounts will drop off sharply in central California as high pressure off the southern California coast will not allow the southern half of the valley to receive significant precipitation. Add to that a strong southwesterly flow which will create strong rain shadows along the west side and over the valley portion of Kern County. It is possible that eastern Fresno County and Madera County could receive .25 to .50, but you have to head north into Merced County to really find the heavier amounts where .50 plus amounts are likely.
Showers may last into Thursday morning, however by then the main body of low pressure will have moved inland. Upper level high pressure will take over Thursday night through the coming weekend and possibly right into the middle of next week, although northern California may be clipped with showers from time to time as the trailing portions of frontal systems move through.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies today with high clouds mixed in during the afternoon. Partly cloudy tonight through Monday. Mostly cloudy Monday night. a chance of showers Tuesday, mainly during the second half of the day. Showers by late Tuesday night, continuing at times Wednesday and Wednesday night. a chance of showers mainly early Thursday morning, otherwise becoming partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday night through Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 68/41/75/48/71 | Reedley 69/42/75/49/73 | Dinuba 67/41/74/48/71 | |
| Porterville 70/40/76/49/73 | Lindsay 70/41/75/47/74 | Delano 71/43/76/50/74 | |
| Bakersfield 70/46/78/52/75 | Taft 71/47/77/51/75 | Arvin 70/44/77/50/75 | |
| Lamont 71/44/77/50/74 | Pixley 68/42/75/50/73 | Tulare 68/41/74/49/72 | |
| Woodlake 68/41/75/48/73 | Hanford 68/42/75/50/73 | Orosi 68/43/74/49/72 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Showers likely 53/67 |
Thursday
AM showers 46/66 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 39/68 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 43/69 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 46/74 |
Two Week Outlook: March 31 through April 6: This model indicates above average precipitation for the northern half of California and near average for the southern half of the state. There is a chance of rain sometime during the first week in April, mainly from Fresno County north. Temperatures will be somewhat above average.
March: February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting. The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Can you say “Ooops”? anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 12 MPH and variable in nature through Monday night. winds Tuesday will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH, increasing to 15 to 25 MPH Tuesday night and Wednesday with possible stronger gusts, especially along the west side.
Rain: Dry weather will prevail through Monday. It is possible showers could reach into Merced County late Monday afternoon or Monday night. rain will spread over northern California Tuesday with possibly a few showers as far south as Fresno County. The chance of showers will increase Tuesday night, especially after midnight, becoming likely Wednesday through Wednesday night. the dynamics of this storm will be mainly over northern California, weakening rapidly as it moves south. Add to that the fact that I anticipate strong rain shadows along the west side and in Kern County.
Rainfall amounts from Tuesday night through Wednesday night could range between .25 and .50 in Madera County and eastern Fresno County, but no more than .10 to .20 is expected along the west side and in all likelihood probably less than .10 over the valley portion of Kern County. There will be a lingering chance of showers for a time Thursday morning.
Dry weather will return Thursday afternoon, continuing through this coming weekend and more than likely through the middle of the following week.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next seven to ten days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Humidity values ranging from 35%/80% at Hanford. Bakersfield 35%/75%
Actual Humidity March 23, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 91%/NA%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60%, tomorrow 40% Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .89, Parlier .90, Blackwell NA, Lindcove .73, Arvin .87, Orange Cove .77, Porterville .87, Delano NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 58, Blackwell 53, Lindcove, 59, Arvin, 59, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 59, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 85/34. Average Temperatures: 69/45
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1965 +422
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for March so far: 54.9 -0.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 8.99 season. or -.29. Month to Date: 1.17 -.41
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 5.85, or +.54. Month to Date: 1.97 +1.02
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:55 am Sunset: 7:15 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:16
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 67 / 54 / 0.16 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 65 / 53 / 0.03 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 66 / 52 / 0.01 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 66 / 52 / 0.03 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 61 / 47 / 0.02 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 65 / 50 / 0.03 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1655 / 60 / 48 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 62 / 44 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 57 / 48 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.39 15.00 128 7.25 62 11.71 14.06
MODESTO 0.73 11.73 110 5.55 52 10.71 13.11
MERCED 0.46 11.70 116 5.53 55 10.10 12.50
MADERA 0.16 9.52 98 6.51 67 9.76 12.02
FRESNO 0.03 8.99 97 6.08 66 9.28 11.50
HANFORD 0.01 7.32 89 4.41 54 8.20 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.02 5.85 110 3.73 70 5.31 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 7.55 191 0.82 21 3.95 5.18
SALINAS 0.09 12.00 111 5.18 48 10.79 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.07 13.77 125 9.42 85 11.05 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.07 14.01 118 5.60 47 11.90 13.95
Next report: Monday morning/March 25