March 25, 2019
Summary: Temperatures at this hour are running 7 to 9 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago with many locations already in the mid 70s as of 1:00pm. The warm up has been generated by a weak southerly surface flow up the valley ahead of a very weak cold front which extends from roughly Redding southward to San Francisco then off shore. That front will essentially dissipate as it moves through central California late tonight and Tuesday morning. It’s possible some light showers may spread as far south as Merced but just increasing clouds will be noted elsewhere.
By Tuesday evening, a low currently located roughly 800 miles to the west of the California/Oregon border will be just off the Oregon/northwest California coast. A strong southwesterly flow will be flanked underneath this storm into northern and central California. The strongest dynamics with this event will be north of a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line. Between late Tuesday evening and late Wednesday night, rainfall amounts may approach 5 inches from roughly Tahoe northward in the Sierra Nevada and as much as 1.5 to 3.0 north of Yosemite. Precipitation amounts will taper off sharply south of Fresno County.
Whatever snow falls above 6,000 to 7,000 feet will be just in time for the icing on the cake or April 1 snow surveys coming up.
It does appear there will be the possibility of thunderstorms Wednesday, mainly during the afternoon and evening, as the cold front moves south. The best chance of storms occurring will be from Fresno County northward. A few lingering showers will last into Thursday morning, mainly along the eastern and southern flanks of the valley. Upper level high pressure will then begin to fill in from the west Thursday afternoon and will keep the storm track north of our region through the upcoming weekend. It looks like our next chance of rain after this week will not occur until around Tuesday night or Wednesday of next week when a zonal flow will set up across the Pacific and into the northern half of the state. Disturbances will roll in from time to time after the fourth with a chance of rain at times. It’s too far away to determine timing and intensity.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy from Fresno County north tonight and partly cloudy south. Variable cloudiness Tuesday. Mostly cloudy Tuesday night through Wednesday night with showers becoming likely Tuesday night, especially after midnight and continuing through Wednesday night. isolated thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday from midday through the evening hours, mainly from Fresno County north. A chance of showers for a time Thursday morning, becoming partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 49/73/53/67 | Reedley 48/74/53/68 | Dinuba 47/72/52/68 | |
| Porterville 46/75/53/69 | Lindsay 46/73/53/71 | Delano 49/75/53/72 | |
| Bakersfield 50/76/54/72 | Taft 51/75/53/73 | Arvin 47/76/53/72 | |
| Lamont 48/75/53/72 | Pixley 46/73/53/69 | Tulare 46/73/52/68 | |
| Woodlake 47/73/52/68 | Hanford 47/74/53/69 | Orosi 46/72/52/68 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 8 MPH tonight. Winds Tuesday will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH, increasing to 10 to 20 MPH later Tuesday night through Wednesday night with stronger gusts from Fresno north and along the west side. Winds Thursday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Tuesday. Showers will begin to enter the picture Tuesday night, especially after midnight and mainly north of Kern County. Periods of rain will continue Wednesday through Wednesday night with a chance of isolated thunderstorms, mainly from Fresno County northward from midday Wednesday through the evening hours. Lingering showers are possible for a time Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts from Tuesday night through Thursday morning could be upwards of .50 in Madera County and eastern Fresno County and .25 or so in northern Tulare County with possibly up to .20 from Porterville to the Kern County line. Strong rain shadows continue to show up on models along the west side and, of course, in Kern County. In western Fresno County and Kings County .10 to .25 is possible. In Kern County, generally less than .10 is currently anticipated.
Dry weather will return Thursday afternoon, continuing through the weekend. Dry weather may continue until about the fourth when most models show an active pattern beginning for the northern half of the valley with a chance of showers further south.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees.
Next report: Tuesday morning/March 26