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Forecast

March 26, 2019/report

March 26, 2019

Summary:  A cold front essentially died just to our north overnight with a few sprinkles as far south as Merced County.  Now we turn our attention to a very large low pressure system still several hundred miles off the Oregon/northern California coast.  This low will approach the coast late tonight and during the day Wednesday.

 

A cold front will move slowly down the valley Wednesday through Wednesday evening.  Rainfall amounts from this system may vary from very wet to very dry, depending on location.  A strong southwesterly flow is flanked underneath this system into central California.  The descending air on the valley side of the Coast Range will create strong rain shadows and will really zap precipitation totals along the west side and in Kern County.  If the west side gets more than .10 to .20, we’ll be lucky.  Much heavier amounts are possible in Madera County and eastern Fresno County and, to a lesser extent, Tulare County.

 

Orographics, or the lifting motion of the atmosphere over the Sierra Nevada, could produce another two feet of snow above 7,000 feet north of Tulare County with perhaps a foot in Tulare County.  This is just icing on the cake for the coming snow surveys.

 

Showers will wind down by Thursday morning.  With a northwest flow behind the system, showers will last all day Thursday over the Kern County mountains but from midday Thursday and through the weekend, conditions will be dry with a warming trend.

 

The next Pacific system will be much weaker and will spread showers over northern California Sunday night and Monday.  The Sierra Nevada could pick up some light precipitation, but it appears the valley will remain dry.

 

Models continue to trend towards an active pattern from April 4 through the 8 when a large low will cover the northwest Pacific and a moist jet stream aimed at northern and central California will have embedded disturbances from time to time.

 

Forecast: Variable cloudiness today.  Cloudy tonight with showers becoming likely from Fresno County northward late this evening with a chance of showers south of Fresno County.  Showers at times Wednesday with a chance of isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours.  Any thunderstorms that do occur will be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail.  Showers, continuing Wednesday night then tapering off Thursday morning.  Partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday morning.  Mostly clear Friday afternoon through Sunday.  Variable cloudiness Sunday night and Monday. Partly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 74/53/68/46/67 Reedley 76/54/69/47/67 Dinuba 74/53/68/46/67
Porterville 76/53/69/48/67 Lindsay 75/53/70/46/68 Delano 76/54/72/49/69
Bakersfield 77/55/73/50/68 Taft 77/55/72/51/68 Arvin 77/54/73/49/67
Lamont 76/54/72/49/67 Pixley 75/53/70/48/66 Tulare 74/53/68/46/66
Woodlake 74/52/70/46/66 Hanford 75/54/69/46/67 Orosi 73/53/68/47/66

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Friday

Partly cloudy

39/68

Saturday

Mostly clear

42/66

Sunday

Mostly clear

43/74

Monday

Mostly cloudy

50/74

Tuesday

Partly cloudy

50/75

 

Two Week Outlook:  April 2 through April 8:  This model indicates above average precipitation for the northern half of California and near average for the southern half of the state.  There is a chance of rain sometime during the first week in April, mainly from Fresno County  north.  Temperatures will be somewhat above average.

 

March:  February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting.  The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions.  Can you say “Ooops”?  anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).

 

February, March, April:  At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation.  There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.

 

Winds:  Winds this afternoon will be out of the southeast at 5 to 12 MPH, increasing to 10 to 15 MPH tonight with stronger gusts.  By Wednesday afternoon, winds will be out of the west to northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with local gusts to 30 possible along the west side.  Winds will decrease to 10 to 15 MPH Wednesday night and Thursday, becoming generally light Thursday night through Friday.

 

Rain: The chance of showers will begin to increase as far south as Fresno County by late evening and over the remainder of the valley after midnight.  Periods of showers will continue Wednesday through Wednesday night with possible lingering showers Thursday morning.  Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening.  Any thunderstorms that do occur will be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail.  High resolution models continue to indicate a strong rain shadow along the west side for much of this event and, of course, in Kern County.  No more than a tenth or two can be expected along the west side and less than a tenth over the valley portion of Kern County.

 

Eastern Madera County and Fresno County could exceed .50 from this event.  Southward into Tulare county, anywhere from .25 to .33 is possible.  Anywhere thunderstorms occur, larger totals will be likely.

 

Most of Thursday and through the weekend will be dry.  There is a chance of light showers over the Sierra Nevada Sunday night and Monday, but it appears the valley floor will remain dry.

 

Medium range models still indicate a very active pattern for northern and central California from April 4 through the 8 as a large Pacific storm will cover the northeast Pacific with the jet stream flanked into northern California.

Frost Discussion:  All locations will be above freezing for at least the next seven to ten days.

__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Low to mid 40s. Humidity values ranging from 35%/85% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 30%/80%

Actual Humidity March 25, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 97%/16%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 20%  Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 30%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .88, Parlier .88, Blackwell NA, Lindcove .66, Arvin .85, Orange Cove .73, Porterville .87, Delano NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 58, Blackwell 53, Lindcove, 60, Arvin, 59, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 60, Delano NA

 

Record Temperatures: 87/34. Average Temperatures: 69/45

Heating Degree Days this Season: 1980 +425

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for March so far: 55.0 -0.0

 

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 8.99 season. or -.41. Month to Date: 1.17 -.54

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  5.85, or +.47.  Month to Date: 1.97 +.95

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:52 am  Sunset: 7:17 pm. Hours of Daylight:  12:21

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  78 /  43 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  78 /  47 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  78 /  41 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  79 /  38 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  81 /  46 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  76 /  43 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1654 /  73 /  39 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  79 /  39 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1654 /  75 /  48 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  74 /  41 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00   15.00   127    7.37    62    11.83    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00   11.73   108    5.78    53    10.82    13.11

MERCED                        0.00   11.70   115    5.66    55    10.20    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    9.52    97    6.51    66     9.84    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    8.99    96    6.09    65     9.40    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    7.32    88    4.41    53     8.29    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    5.85   109    3.73    69     5.38     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    7.55   190    0.82    21     3.98     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00   12.00   110    5.29    48    10.92    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   13.77   123    9.42    84    11.17    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   14.01   116    5.60    47    12.04    13.95

 

Next report:  Tuesday afternoon/March 26