March 25, 2019
Summary: Essentially, the northern half of California is cloudy with generally clear skies over the southern half of the state. Precipitation is spreading into roughly the northern one-quarter of California from a cold front which will die over central California later tonight and Tuesday. Light showers could reach into Merced County tonight, but my feeling is the remainder of the valley will remain dry.
Further out to see is a large and rather robust low pressure system which will be off the Oregon/northern California coast later Tuesday night and Wednesday. A strong and moist west/southwest flow will flank underneath the main low and right over central California from Tuesday night through Wednesday night. this is the type of setup which will allow for strong rain shadows to develop along the west side and in Kern County. With orographic lift along the Sierra Nevada, though, heavy snow will be the result there. Below the snow line, one to two inches of rain are possible in the foothills, mainly from Fresno County north. Snow fall amounts may approach one to two feet with locally higher amounts possible from Yosemite northward. The east side of the valley, mainly in Fresno and Madera Counties, could tally up as much as a half inch with lesser amounts south and along the west side.
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday through Wednesday evening, especially along the frontal band which will move through sometime late Wednesday morning or early afternoon. The parent low will move inland late Wednesday night with the chance of showers winding down after midnight.
There is a chance of lingering showers for a time Thursday morning then upper level high pressure will begin to build in from the west Thursday afternoon and will hold through at least Saturday night. models show a much weaker system moving into northern California late Sunday and Mondays for some light showers along the Sierra Nevada, mainly from Yosemite northward.
The first week in April, especially after the fourth, looks like an active period again as the storm track again sags southward.
Forecast: Partly cloudy from Fresno County north today. Mostly clear skies with occasional high clouds in the south. Variable cloudiness tonight and Tuesday. Cloudy with showers Tuesday night through Wednesday night. a chance of isolated thunderstorms from late Wednesday morning through the late evening hours. A chance of lingering showers for a time Thursday morning. Partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 75/48/72/52/68 | Reedley 75/48/73/53/68 | Dinuba 74/47/72/52/67 | |
| Porterville 77/46/73/53/71 | Lindsay 77/46/73/51/69 | Delano 77/47/74/52/71 | |
| Bakersfield 78/48/75/52/70 | Taft 77/50/75/54/71 | Arvin 78/46/75/53/72 | |
| Lamont 78/47/75/52/71 | Pixley 76/46/72/52/68 | Tulare 75/46/72/51/67 | |
| Woodlake 75/46/72/52/67 | Hanford 76/46/73/52/68 | Orosi 75/46/72/52/68 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
AM Showers 45/66 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 39/66 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 43/73 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 45/75 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 48/78 |
Two Week Outlook: March 31 through April 6: This model indicates above average precipitation for the northern half of California and near average for the southern half of the state. There is a chance of rain sometime during the first week in April, mainly from Fresno County north. Temperatures will be somewhat above average.
March: February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting. The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Can you say “Ooops”? anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 12 MPH through tonight, becoming mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH Tuesday. Winds later Tuesday night and Wednesday will be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with local gusts to 30 possible from Fresno County north and along the west side. Winds Thursday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Tuesday. A weak cold front will die over the San Joaquin Valley tonight and Tuesday morning, but for now it appears light showers will penetrate no further south than Merced County. Precipitation will begin to increase over central California Tuesday night and especially Wednesday through Wednesday night. models show a very strong rain shadow developing along the west side and, of course, in Kern County for much of this event. From Tuesday night through Wednesday night, between .33 and .50 is possible in eastern Fresno and Madera Counties. With that rain shadow along the west side, for now it appears no more than .10 or .20 will occur there. In Kern County, less than .10 is likely. Dry weather will return by midday Thursday, continuing through the weekend. Models do suggest a weak system will brush us to the north late Sunday and Monday, but it appears any precipitation will remain over northern California. The first week in April still appears active, especially from the fourth on, as a series of storms affect northern and central California.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next seven to ten days.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 25%/80%
Actual Humidity March 24, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 98%/26%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 40% Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .87, Parlier .88, Blackwell NA, Lindcove .70, Arvin .85, Orange Cove .74, Porterville .86, Delano NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 58, Blackwell 53, Lindcove, 60, Arvin, 59, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 59, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 85/32. Average Temperatures: 69/45
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1975 +421
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for March so far: 54.4 -0.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 8.99 season. or -.35. Month to Date: 1.17 -.48
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 5.85, or +.51. Month to Date: 1.97 +.99
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:54 am Sunset: 7:16 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:18
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 69 / 40 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 67 / 43 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 70 / 40 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 69 / 37 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 70 / 44 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 67 / 38 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1650 / 67 / 37 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 70 / 39 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1655 / 67 / 46 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 15.00 127 7.37 63 11.78 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 11.73 109 5.78 54 10.77 13.11
MERCED 0.00 11.70 115 5.66 56 10.15 12.50
MADERA 0.00 9.52 97 6.51 66 9.80 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 8.99 96 6.09 65 9.34 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 7.32 89 4.41 54 8.24 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.85 110 3.73 70 5.34 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 7.55 191 0.82 21 3.96 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 12.00 110 5.24 48 10.86 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 13.77 124 9.42 85 11.11 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 14.01 117 5.60 47 11.97 13.95
Next report: Monday afternoon/March 25