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Forecast

March 26, 2019/pm report

March 26, 2019

Summary:  The remnants of a cold front are over the northern San Joaquin Valley this afternoon.  Active weather has long since ended.  Most of the cloud cover didn’t even make it into the central or south valley.  A large low both at the surface and aloft is approaching the Oregon/northern California coast.  A strong west/southwest flow will begin to flank underneath this low tonight and continue through Wednesday.  Precipitation will begin along the mountains of the central California coast early tomorrow morning, spreading down the Sierra Nevada early Wednesday.  Models continue to indicate a strong rain shadow will develop along the west side and over the south valley.

 

Quantitative precipitation estimates vary widely from  model to  model, but by and large it appears amounts will be scant in Kern County and even along the west side.  The closer to the foothills on the east side, more than .50 cannot be ruled out form  northern Tulare County north.

 

The freezing level has come down over northern California with the latest reading above Oakland at 6,400 feet while relatively warm air aloft remains over southern California with a freezing level of 9,200 feet over Vandenberg.

 

Showers will be possible Wednesday through Wednesday night.  models still indicate there will be enough dynamics Wednesday afternoon and evening for a chance of isolated thunderstorms, which of course would be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail.  Periods of showers will continue Wednesday night with showers possible for a time Thursday morning before the back side of the system slips east of the Sierra Nevada.  A ridge of upper level high pressure will build in from the west beginning Thursday afternoon and lasting through Sunday.

 

The next low of note appears to be much weaker and will affect mainly the northern portion of the state late Sunday night through Monday night with a chance of light showers over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.

 

Medium range models for later next week still indicate an active pattern, especially from Fresno County north.  Some models show the development of a cold trough of low pressure about the 7 or 8, so we’ll have to monitor that possibility, as well.

 

Forecast:  Increasing cloudiness tonight with a chance of showers by sunrise from Fresno north.  Showers likely Wednesday and Wednesday night, mainly north of Kern County.  A chance of showers for a time Thursday morning.  Becoming partly cloudy Thursday afternoon except remaining mostly cloudy over Kern County and southeast Tulare county into Friday morning.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Sunday.  Variable cloudiness Sunday night through Monday night.  partly cloudy Tuesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 53/67/46/66 Reedley 54/69/47/67 Dinuba 52/68/46/66
Porterville 53/69/47/67 Lindsay 52/68/46/66 Delano 54/69/47/67
Bakersfield 55/71/50/67 Taft 55/71/51/67 Arvin 52/72/49/68
Lamont 53/71/49/68 Pixley 53/69/47/67 Tulare 52/68/46/66
Woodlake 52/69/46/67 Hanford 54/69/46/66 Orosi 52/68/46/67

 

Winds: Winds later tonight will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH, increasing to 10 to 20 MPH Wednesday morning.  Late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night, winds will be out of the west to northwest at 10 to 20 MPH, decreasing to 10 to 15 MPH Thursday with generally light winds Thursday night through Friday.

 

Rain: Rain will begin to spread into the coastal mountains about 3:00 to 4:00am then will spread down the Sierra Nevada early Wednesday morning.  For the past several days, models have continued to indicate strong rain shadows will form along the west side and over the valley portion of Kern County.  How far east these rain shadows progress is always just a guess at best, but it appears the east side from roughly Visalia north could pick up anywhere from .25 to .33, perhaps even more than  .50 in eastern Fresno County and Madera County.  Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Wednesday afternoon and evening.  Any locations that do find themselves in the path of a thunderstorm could pick up considerably more along with small hail.

 

Showers will linger into Thursday morning with dry weather Thursday afternoon with the exception of the extreme southern Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains where upsloping and a northwest push of air behind the front will keep the showers going through Thursday evening.  Dry weather can be expected Thursday afternoon through probably the middle of next week.  Models do show a weak low moving through northern California late Sunday night through Monday night.  there will be a chance of light precipitation over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada with a generally dry forecast for the valley

 

After April 4, models have been adamant about the development of an active pattern.  That’s still likely this afternoon with most of the action from Fresno County north.

 

Next report: Wednesday morning/March 27