March 29, 2019
Summary: Skies are mostly clear over the valley this morning with the exception of portions of Kern County where upslope clouds continue to bank up against the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains and the northeast slopes of the Temblor Range. The air mass is rather cool with freezing above Oakland only at 5,500 feet. Upper level high pressure, however, is slowly building in from the southwest and will nudge the storm track northward into the Pacific Northwest through Monday. As the high continues to build, temperatures will warm accordingly with readings possibly topping 70 at the warmer locations Saturday and mid 70s Sunday. One mode pushes Bakersfield all the way up to 80 degrees Monday due to a weak southerly flow beginning to move in ahead of the next low pressure system. That system will move through the Pacific Northwest and northern and central California late Monday night into Tuesday night. there is a reasonable chance of light showers from Fresno County north. The farther south you progress in the valley, the lower the chance of precipitation.
As has been the case this spring, this system will be followed by another weak ridge of high pressure for Wednesday into Thursday. By Thursday evening, a very intense low is projected to be centered off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. From Friday through Saturday, it appears a strong cold front will move through central California with possibly significant precipitation from Fresno County north but with lesser amounts further south. It appears the southern limit of the precipitation may be near the Tehachapi Mountains.
Beginning a weak from Sunday, high pressure will begin to build in from the west, resulting in dry conditions and our next warming trend.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday. The low clouds in the Kern county portion of the valley wil dissipate as the day wears on. Mostly clear Sunday night and Monday morning. Increasing clouds Monday afternoon. Showers will be likely Monday night through Tuesday evening, especially after midnight Monday. Becoming partly cloudy late Tuesday night through Thursday morning. Increasing cloudiness Thursday afternoon with a chance of rain Thursday night. rain becoming likely Friday from Fresno County north with showers likely south of Fresno County.
Short Term:
| Madera 67/41/70/43/75 | Reedley 68/41/71/43/76 | Dinuba 66/40/69/42/74 | |
| Porterville 67/40/70/44/76 | Lindsay 67/40/71/42/75 | Delano 68/43/71/43/77 | |
| Bakersfield 67/46/70/47/77 | Taft 66/47/70/49/76 | Arvin 66/43/71/45/78 | |
| Lamont 67/43/70/46/76 | Pixley 68/41/70/44/76 | Tulare 66/40/70/43/75 | |
| Woodlake 67/41/71/43/75 | Hanford 67/42/71/44/77 | Orosi 67/41/71/44/76 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Showers late 47/80 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 55/70 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 48/75 |
Thursday
PM showers 53/73 |
Friday
Rain likely 55/73 |
Two Week Outlook: April 5 through April 11: This model indicates a very wet pattern for the Pacific Northwest and no rthern California, especially during the early part of this time frame. Rain appears likely for the 5th and 6th with reduced chances of rain thereafter. The flow pattern aloft will be generally out of the west/southwest so look for temperatures to be somewhat above average.
March: February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting. The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Can you say “Ooops”? anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds through Monday morning will be generally at or less than 12 MPH afternoons and evenings and less than 7 MPH during the night and morning hours with periods of near calm conditions. Winds will be out of the southeast Monday afternoon at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts from Fresno County north.
Rain: Expect dry weather through Monday. The chance of at least light showers is relatively high from Fresno County north after roughly midnight Monday, continuing into Tuesday evening. The chance of showers will drop off as you head south in the valley, but there will be at least a small chance of showers.
Later Tuesday night through Thursday will be dry then a major storm will begin to bear down on northern and central California Thursday night and Friday. Just how this sets up will determine how much precipitation falls Friday into Saturday with possibly significant amounts from Fresno County north. However, if all goes as planned, significant showers are possible in the south valley. After next Saturday, dry weather will return for several days as high pressure takes over. __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 35%/85%
Actual Humidity March 28, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 96%/16%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 90% Bakersfield: Today: 60% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .97, Parlier .93, Blackwell NA, Lindcove .NA, Arvin .96, Orange Cove .81, Porterville .97, Delano NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 58, Parlier 59, Blackwell 53, Lindcove, 60, Arvin, 60, Orange Cove 56, Porterville 60, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 87/32. Average Temperatures: 70/45
Heating Degree Days this Season: 1994 +439
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for March so far: 55.6 +0.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 9.08 season. or -.49. Month to Date: 1.26 -.62
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 5.89, or +.41. Month to Date: 2.01 +.89
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:48 am Sunset: 7:19 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:27
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 69 / 47 / 0.05 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 69 / 51 / T /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 71 / 49 / 0.02 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 71 / 47 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 69 / 58 / 0.04 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 69 / 51 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1655 / 69 / 45 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 70 / 51 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 68 / 50 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 67 / 44 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON T 15.12 126 7.37 61 12.01 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 11.75 107 5.78 53 10.97 13.11
MERCED 0.00 11.82 114 5.66 55 10.37 12.50
MADERA 0.00 9.65 97 6.51 65 9.97 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 9.08 95 6.09 64 9.57 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 7.38 88 4.41 52 8.41 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.04 5.89 107 3.73 68 5.48 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 7.55 188 0.82 20 4.01 5.18
SALINAS T 12.01 108 5.29 48 11.09 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.00 124 9.42 83 11.33 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.02 14.47 118 5.60 46 12.24 13.95
Next report: Friday afternoon/March 29