April 1, 2019
Summary: it is a bit unusual to find identical freezing levels both above Oakland and above Vandenberg but such is the case this morning with a freezing level of 11,800 feet. A nice bubble of warm, subsiding air is above us this morning. Couple that with a weak southeasterly flow at the surface and we have the makings for a nice, warm afternoon with readings topping the 80 degree mark in the warmest locations. Already this morning, temperatures are ranging from 2 to 6 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago.
Cooler weather is on the way as the progressive pattern continues. The next low is located a few hundred miles west of the northern California coast and will drive a cold front down the valley Tuesday morning, spreading light showers as far south as Fresno County with a minimal chance of widely scattered showers in the south valley. With the much stronger daytime heating effect, even though this is a weak system, it may be enough to trigger isolated thunderstorms north of Kern County Tuesday afternoon and evening.
A brief break in the pattern will return later Tuesday night and Wednesday. Beginning Wednesday night, a moist west/southwest flow aloft will move into northern and, to a lesser extent, central California. Precipitation Thursday and Thursday night will be widespread over the northern part of the state, however this far south, precipitation will be quite light and mainly from Fresno County north.
Our best chance at significant precipitation will occur Friday night and early Saturday morning as a strong low in the Gulf of Alaska moves southward into the Pacific Northwest while driving a fairly strong cold front down the valley with possibly decent snows in the high Sierra. There will be a chance at that time for more significant rains on the valley floor. After Saturday morning, a strong high is projected to build east from the eastern Pacific, driving the storm track well north with considerably warmer weather by the early part of next week.
Forecast: A mix of high clouds and sunshine today. Increasing cloudiness tonight with light showers becoming likely from Fresno County north Tuesday and Tuesday evening and a minimal chance of scattered light showers in the valley. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Tuesday afternoon and evening. Partly cloudy later Tuesday night through Wednesday night. a chance of light showers Thursday, mainly from Fresno County north. A slight chance of showers Thursday evening. Becoming partly cloudy later Thursday night. increasing cloudiness Friday. Showers becoming likely Friday night and early Saturday. Mostly to partly cloudy Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. Mostly clear Sunday afternoon through Monday with a warming trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 79/52/69/49/71 | Reedley 80/53/70/50/71 | Dinuba 78/52/69/49/69 | |
| Porterville 81/50/70/47/70 | Lindsay 80/51/71/49/71 | Delano 82/52/73/50/70 | |
| Bakersfield 82/55/73/52/69 | Taft 81/55/72/52/70 | Arvin 82/53/74/51/70 | |
| Lamont 81/54/75/50/69 | Pixley 81/51/70/49/69 | Tulare 79/52/69/48/69 | |
| Woodlake 80/50/70/48/71 | Hanford 81/52/70/49/70 | Orosi 79/51/70/48/69 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Light showers possible 52/66 |
Friday
PM rain likely 48/74 |
Saturday
AM showers possible 51/70 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 48/77 |
Monday
Mostly clear 51/81 |
Two Week Outlook: April 8 through April 14: This model indicates a rather active pattern once again for northern and central California. There’s at least a marginal risk of showers during this time frame with temperatures ranging close to seasonal norms.
March: February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting. The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Can you say “Ooops”? anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds through Monday morning will be generally at or less than 12 MPH afternoons and evenings and less than 7 MPH during the night and morning hours with periods of near calm conditions through Thursday.
Rain: There is a relatively high risk of light showers from Fresno County north Tuesday through Tuesday evening. A smaller risk of widely scattered showers will be present in the south valley, mainly north of Kern County. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening. Overall, rainfall amounts should generally be at or less than .10 Tuesday through Tuesday evening. However, if thunderstorms do pop up, a quick .25 to .33 is possible along with small hail.
Dry weather will temporarily return later Tuesday night through Wednesday. Another system will likely spread light showers down to Fresno County Thursday and Thursday evening with a chance of widely scattered light showers in the south valley. For now, it appears Thursday night and Friday will be dry then a considerably higher risk of rain will begin Friday night, lasting into Saturday morning. This front appears stronger and has a much greater possibility of significant snowfall in the Sierra Nevada, especially from Kings Canyon north with possibly decent amounts of rain on the valley floor, especially north of Kern County.
We can expect dry weather Sunday and for the next several days, but the two week model is indicating there’s a reasonable chance of above average precip week after next. __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Humidity values ranging from 25%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 25%/80%
Actual Humidity March 31, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 95%/24%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60%, tomorrow 30% Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.20, Parlier .1.10, Blackwell NA, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.12, Orange Cove .99, Porterville 1.12, Delano NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 59, Blackwell 53, Lindcove, 60, Arvin, 61, Orange Cove 56, Porterville 61, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 90/32. Average Temperatures: 70/45
Heating Degree Days this Season: 2014 +437
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for March so far: 55.9 +0.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 9.08 season. or -.64. Month to Date: 1.26 -.77
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 5.89, or +.32. Month to Date: 2.01 +.80
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:44 am Sunset: 7:22 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:34
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 77 / 47 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 76 / 50 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 78 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 79 / 38 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 79 / 48 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 76 / 41 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1656 / 75 / 43 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 77 / 41 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 74 / 51 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 15.20 125 7.37 61 12.17 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 11.91 107 5.78 52 11.11 13.11
MERCED 0.00 11.82 112 5.66 54 10.53 12.50
MADERA 0.00 9.65 95 6.51 64 10.11 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 9.08 93 6.09 63 9.72 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 7.38 87 4.41 52 8.53 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.89 106 3.73 67 5.57 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 7.55 186 0.82 20 4.05 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 12.04 107 5.29 47 11.26 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.00 122 9.42 82 11.49 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 14.47 116 5.60 45 12.43 13.95
Next report: Tuesday morning/April 2