April 2, 2019
Summary: A meager cold front moved through during the early morning hours with only a few hundredths of an inch of precipitation. Many locations just reported trace amounts. This system will be most active this afternoon through the late evening hours as a pool of relatively cold, unstable air associated with low pressure moves over central California just as the daytime heating effect is at its peak. Warm currents of air will move off the valley floor, spawning widely scattered showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms, mainly north of Kern County. Most of the action will wind down by ten or eleven pm with dry weather returning tonight through Wednesday night as a progressive ridge of upper level high pressure moves through.
Another trough will move through northern and central California Thursday, spreading light showers as far south as Fresno County with a smaller risk of light showers in the south valley. Like the present system, amounts of precipitation will be quite light.
Another very temporary ridge of high pressure will move through Thursday night and Friday morning before the chance of rain begins to increase Friday afternoon, becoming likely Friday night and for a time Saturday morning. This system will be considerably stronger plus there is some suggestion of an atmospheric river of air moving into northern California. The challenge is that some models are projecting this system will move onshore somewhat further north. Also, no matter where it moves onshore, a strong rain shadow will be evident along the west side and in Kern County.
On the flip side, the Sierra Nevada should do well with potentially heavy amounts of precipitation, especially from Kings Canyon north with a significant amount of snow falling on the higher elevations. The trough will move east of the Sierra Nevada Saturday afternoon.
A strong ridge of upper level high pressure will rapidly build over the eastern Pacific and California Sunday through Tuesday. Some models suggest we could shoot up into the mid to upper 80s by Monday, but more especially Tuesday before what appears to be a dry trough of low pressure moves through a week from Wednesday, resulting in a cooling trend.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness through tonight with scattered showers, especially this afternoon and evening with a chance of isolated thunderstorms, mainly along the east side north of Kern County. Partly cloudy Wednesday. Increasing cloudiness later Wednesday night leading to a chance of showers from mainly Fresno County north Thursday with a small chance further south. Increasing cloudiness Friday morning. Showers by Friday evening, lasting through at least early Saturday morning. Partly cloudy Saturday afternoon and night. mostly clear and warmer Sunday through Tuesday.
Short Term:
Madera 71/52/71/52/68 | Reedley 73/54/71/52/68 | Dinuba 71/51/71/51/67 | |
Porterville 73/51/72/50/68 | Lindsay 73/52/71/50/67 | Delano 74/54/71/52/68 | |
Bakersfield 75/55/72/53/68 | Taft 73/55/72/53/67 | Arvin 75/55/72/51/69 | |
Lamont 74/54/72/53/68 | Pixley 74/51/71/50/67 | Tulare 72/51/70/50/67 | |
Woodlake 72/49/71/50/66 | Hanford 73/53/71/51/69 | Orosi 72/50/71/50/67 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Friday
PM showers 46/67 |
Saturday
AM showers 52/69 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 48/76 |
Monday
Mostly clear 51/82 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 54/87 |
Two Week Outlook: April 9 through April 15: Temperatures during this time frame will be near to possibly marginally below average. This model points to a higher than normal risk of showers during this time frame.
March: February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting. The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions. Can you say “Ooops”? anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).
February, March, April: At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation. There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.
Winds: Winds will be generally out of the west to northwest at 5 to 15 MPH through tonight. Local gusts to near 25 MPH are possible near showers and thunderstorms. Winds Wednesday through Wednesday night will be generally at or less than 12 MPH. Winds Thursday will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 5 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts. Winds Friday will be out of the southeast at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts possible from Fresno County north and along the west side.
Rain: A dry cold front is currently moving into the Sierra Nevada. No location has reported more than .02 thus far. The greatest risk of measurable rain, however, will be this afternoon through the late evening hours as a pool of relatively cold, unstable air moves overhead just as the daytime heating effect begins to max out. Scattered showers will be possible this afternoon through the evening hours with a chance of isolated thunderstorms, mainly north of Kern County. Any thunderstorms that do occur will be accompanied by brief, heavy rain and small hail.
Rainfall amounts for the rest of this event will range from nothing to possible .10. A quarter to a third of an inch is possible in areas hit by thunderstorms.
Dry weather will prevail later this evening through Wednesday night with a chance of light showers down to Fresno County Thursday through Thursday evening and a smaller risk of widely scattered light showers in the south valley.
The best chance of more significant precipitation will be Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. An atmospheric river of air may develop into northern California north of our region. However, a moist westerly flow will move from the eastern Pacific into central California, creating strong rain shadows along the west side and in Kern County. Potentially heavy amounts of precipitation could occur over the Sierra Nevada, especially north of Kings Canyon. We could see some decent amounts of rain along the east side north of Kern County.
Dry weather will return Saturday afternoon and continues through probably the middle part of next week. A trough of low pressure will be moving through about Wednesday of next week, but for now it appears precipitation will remain to our north. __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Humidity values ranging from 50%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 40%/90%
Actual Humidity April 1, 2019: Delano, NA Porterville, 93%/32%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 70% Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 30%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.20, Parlier .1.11, Blackwell 1.08, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.11, Orange Cove 1.01, Porterville 1.11, Delano NA Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 59, Blackwell 59, Lindcove, 60, Arvin, 62, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 62, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 87/34. Average Temperatures: 71/45
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 1 -7
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for April so far: 63.5 +5.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 9.08 season. or -.68. Month to Date: 0.00 -.04
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 5.89, or +.32. Month to Date: 0.00 -.03
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:42 am Sunset: 7:23 pm. Hours of Daylight: 12:37
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 79 / 48 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 79 / 51 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 82 / 45 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 81 / 44 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 82 / 67 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 79 / 49 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1656 / 80 / 46 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 80 / 46 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1656 / 80 / 56 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 50 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON T 15.20 124 7.37 60 12.21 14.06
MODESTO T 11.91 107 5.78 52 11.15 13.11
MERCED 0.00 11.82 112 5.66 54 10.57 12.50
MADERA 0.00 9.65 95 6.51 64 10.15 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 9.08 93 6.09 62 9.76 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 7.38 86 4.41 52 8.56 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.89 105 3.73 67 5.60 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 7.55 186 0.82 20 4.06 5.18
SALINAS T 12.04 106 5.29 47 11.31 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.00 121 9.42 82 11.53 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 14.47 116 5.60 45 12.48 13.95
Next report: Wednesday morning/April 3