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Forecast

April 4, 2019/report

April 4, 2019

Summary:  The latest weak trough of low pressure is beginning to move on shore along the northern and central California coast.  This system has poor dynamics and will move across central California during the late morning and afternoon hours.  The chance for light showers over the Sierra Nevada is relatively high with a small chance of widely scattered light showers over the valley floor.  This is actually the first of two systems.  The second will arrive Friday afternoon into early Saturday.  Each set of forecast models seems to show this system drying up even more and that trend continues this morning.  With the jet stream flanked across central California Friday night, what moisture there is will get zapped by a rain shadow along the west side and over the Kern County portion of the valley.  Even on the east side and in Fresno and Madera Counties, only a tenth or two is anticipated.

 

The trough will progress into the Great Basin by late Saturday afternoon, so it appears most of Saturday will be dry after the early morning hours.  A strong ridge of upper level high pressure will briefly build Sunday through Monday for a significant warming trend.  In fact, warmest locations could top out near 80 degrees Monday afternoon.

 

The next weak trough will move through Tuesday with a chance of  light showers mainly over the Sierra Nevada with yet another out there towards Thursday.  In fact, some models actually depict a rather well defined low just off the central coast next Thursday and off the southern California coast Friday.  If this occurs, our chance of showers later next week will be high.

 

From the tenth through the seventeenth, models show the eastern Pacific high moving far enough off the Pacific coast to develop a cool, northwesterly flow aloft.  There may be disturbances embedded within this flow which would mean unsettled weather from time to time as we move into the middle of the month.  With that northwesterly flow aloft, generally cooler than average temperatures will prevail.

 

Forecast: Variable cloudiness today and tonight.  There will be a chance of widely scattered light showers this afternoon and evening.  Increasing cloudiness Friday morning leading to a chance of light showers Friday afternoon through early Saturday.  The best chance of showers will be late Friday afternoon through the evening hours.  Partly cloudy from midmorning Saturday through Sunday morning.  Mostly clear Sunday afternoon through Monday.  Increasing cloudiness Monday night with a small chance of light showers after midnight.  A small chance of showers Tuesday. Partly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Mostly cloudy Thursday with a chance of showers.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 67/47/69/45/71 Reedley 67/47/68/45/72 Dinuba 66/46/67/44/70
Porterville 68/46/70/45/71 Lindsay 67/46/69/44/71 Delano 68/48/70/49/72
Bakersfield 70/50/70/51/73 Taft 69/49/71/49/72 Arvin 70/48/71/49/73
Lamont 69/50/70/51/73 Pixley 69/47/69/45/71 Tulare 67/46/68/44/70
Woodlake 68/48/69/45/70 Hanford 68/47/69/46/71 Orosi 67/45/69/44/71

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

Mostly clear

49/76

Monday

Mostly clear

50/80

Tuesday

Chance of showers

53/72

Wednesday

Partly cloudy

46/73

Thursday

Chance of showers

44/68

 

Two Week Outlook:  April 11 through April 17:  The eastern Pacific high will be several hundred miles off the Pacific coast during this period, putting California in a northwest flow aloft.  This will result in somewhat below average temperatures and at least a chance of showers from time to time.

 

March:  February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting.  The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions.  Can you say “Ooops”?  anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).

 

February, March, April:  At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation.  There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.

 

Winds:  Winds through tonight will be variable to 12 MPH.  Winds Friday will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts possible, mainly from Fresno County north and along the west side, continuing Friday night.  Winds Saturday through Sunday will be generally at or less than 15 MPH with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the night and morning hours.

 

Rain: There is a small chance of widely scattered showers later today through the evening hours.  However, what little activity there is will be mainly over the Sierra Nevada.  Amounts of rain, if any, will generally be just a few hundredths of an inch.

 

The next system will follow closely on its heels, arriving Friday afternoon through early Saturday.  Models continue to show this system weakening over central California and also show a rain shadow in the western and southern portions of the valley, so amounts from this system will also be rather anemic, possibly a tenth or two in Fresno and Madera Counties with lesser amounts elsewhere.

 

The progressive pattern we’ve been under for several weeks will continue.  Dry weather will prevail most of Saturday through Monday then the next rather weak system will arrive Monday night and Tuesday for yet another small chance of light showers.  Tuesday night and Wednesday appear dry.  Some models are showing a rather strong storm off the central coast beginning Thursday of next week and off the southern California coast Friday.  If this does happen, our chance of rain will be high.

 

The medium range outlook continues to show the development of a northwesterly flow from the tenth all the way through the middle of the month.  Disturbances could be embedded within this flow for a chance of unsettled weather from time to time.            __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.   Humidity values ranging from 50%/95% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 50%/90%

Actual Humidity April 2, 2019: Delano, 92%/46% Porterville, 95%/39%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 40%  Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 50%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.23, Parlier .1.16, Blackwell 1.15, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.14, Orange Cove 1.04, Porterville 1.14, Delano 1.21 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 62, Blackwell 56, Lindcove, 60, Arvin, 63, Orange Cove 58, Porterville 63, Delano 66

Record Temperatures: 88/33. Average Temperatures: 71/45

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 0 -4

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for April so far: 62.2 +4.2

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 9.22 season. or -.63. Month to Date: .14 +.01

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  5.90, or +.25.  Month to Date: .01 -.07

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:39 am  Sunset: 7:25 pm. Hours of Daylight:  12:42

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  72 /  46 / 0.01 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  71 /  50 /    T /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  71 /  46 / 0.11 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  72 /  47 /    T /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  74 /  63 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  71 /  48 / 0.08 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1659 /  71 /  49 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  72 /  49 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1659 /  70 /  54 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  67 /  50 / 0.00 /

 

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00   15.54   126    7.37    60    12.30    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00   12.03   107    5.78    51    11.23    13.11

MERCED                        0.00   11.84   111    5.66    53    10.66    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    9.75    95    6.51    64    10.22    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    9.22    94    6.09    62     9.85    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    7.49    87    4.41    51     8.61    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    5.90   104    3.73    66     5.65     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    7.55   185    0.82    20     4.09     5.18

SALINAS                       0.01   12.05   106    5.29    46    11.40    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   14.00   121    9.42    81    11.60    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   14.47   115    5.60    45    12.58    13.95

 

Next report:  Friday morning/April 5