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Forecast

April 5, 2019/report

April 5, 2019

Summary:  yesterday’s weather system has raced eastward and is already in the Rocky Mountain region.  However, light showers are now spreading over northern California with the precipitation shield roughly 75 miles to the west of Monterey.  This system will basically hit and run as it is moving quickly and will scoot through the valley this afternoon and evening.  The storm’s dynamics have weakened over its southern portion so only light showers are expected and even then mainly from Fresno County northward.  Even in Fresno and Madera Counties, some locations may not record measurable rain.

 

Following this anemic system will be a fast moving ridge of high pressure which will result in a warming trend over the weekend and into early next week.  Temperatures will peak Monday with the warmest locations possibly topping the 80 degree mark.

 

The next weak trough of low pressure will move through late Monday night and Tuesday.  Again, this one appears to be pretty weak.  In fact, some models are leaning towards a dry forecast, especially south of Fresno County.  As cloud cover increases again, daytime temperatures will lower closer to seasonal averages.

 

Where models become quite intriguing is for the Thursday/Friday time frame as an impressive low shows up just off the central California coast by Thursday afternoon and off the southern California coast by Friday evening.  If indeed this pattern comes to fruition, central California will experience very active weather with numerous showers and possible thunderstorms.  Since this is the second day in a row models have pointed in this direction, it’s time to take it a bit more seriously.  However, this is still almost a week out, so much could change between now and then and frequently models have a tendency to overdo storms this late in the season.

 

Between the 10th and the 17th, models portray a consistent northwesterly flow with possible disturbances embedded within this flow. It’s possible unsettled weather may occur from time to time along with experiencing somewhat cooler than average temperatures.

 

Forecast: Increasing cloudiness this morning.  A chance of sprinkles or widely scattered light showers this afternoon, mainly from Fresno County northward. A small chance of widely scattered light showers this evening.  Otherwise it will be partly to mostly cloudy.  Partly cloudy Saturday morning.  Becoming mostly clear Saturday afternoon through Monday with a warming trend.  Increasing cloudiness Monday night with a slight chance of light showers after midnight.  A slight chance of light showers Tuesday morning.  Becoming partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening.  Increasing cloudiness late Wednesday night with an increasing chance of showers and possible thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night.  a slight chance of showers Friday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 68/47/72/48/78 Reedley 68/47/73/49/79 Dinuba 67/47/72/48/77
Porterville 68/46/73/48/79 Lindsay 67/46/72/48/79 Delano 69/49/73/50/79
Bakersfield 69/53/73/52/79 Taft 69/52/73/52/78 Arvin 67/50/73/52/79
Lamont 68/50/73/51/78 Pixley 67/47/72/49/78 Tulare 66/46/72/49/77
Woodlake 67/47/72/49/77 Hanford 68/47/72/49/77 Orosi 67/47/72/49/78

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Monday

PM clouds

50/80

Tuesday

Light showers

53/72

Wednesday

Partly cloudy

43/69

Thursday

Showers likely

48/69

Friday

Chance of showers

40/66

 

Two Week Outlook:  April 11 through April 17:  The eastern Pacific high will be several hundred miles off the Pacific coast during this period, putting California in a northwest flow aloft.  This will result in somewhat below average temperatures and at least a chance of showers from time to time.

 

March:  February is a classic example of the unreliability of long range weather forecasting.  The 30 day outlook for February was for above average temperatures and drier than normal conditions.  Can you say “Ooops”?  anyway, the 30 day out look for March gives us marginally above average temperatures with equal chances of above or below precipitation (so in other words, flip a coin).

 

February, March, April:  At least this model projects about equal chances for either above or below average precipitation.  There is actually a greater possibility of below average rain over the Pacific Northwest. Generally speaking, temperatures should remain at least marginally above average.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 15 MPH through Monday, generally northwesterly in the afternoons and early evenings.  Periods of near calm conditions are possible, especially during the night and morning hours.

 

Rain: The latest fast moving trough of low pressure is already spreading showers over northern California.  The trailing portion of this system will move through later this afternoon and evening with a chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County north.  Rainfall amounts will generally range from trace amounts to possibly a few hundredths of an inch.  Dry weather will return later tonight through Monday.

 

Another similar fast moving system will move through central California late  Monday night and Tuesday for another low chance of light showers.  Tuesday night and Wednesday will be dry.

 

For the second day in a row, models are showing an impressive low just off the central coast Thursday and Thursday night.  if this is accurate, and keep in mind we’re still a week out, we  could see very active weather Thursday and Thursday night in the form of numerous showers and possible thunderstorms.

 

The low shows up off the southern California coast Friday for a chance of showers, mainly Friday morning.  From the 10th through the middle of the month, models continue to depict a northwesterly flow aloft with possible waves of low pressure embedded within this flow. It’s possible we could see unsettled weather from time to time during this period with episodes of dry weather sandwiched between systems.              __________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s.   Humidity values ranging from 55%/95% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 50%/90%

Actual Humidity April 4, 2019: Delano, 88%/53% Porterville, 94%/43%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 50%  Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 50%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.23, Parlier .1.16, Blackwell 1.09, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.16, Orange Cove .96, Porterville 1.06, Delano 1.14 Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 62, Blackwell 56, Lindcove, 60, Arvin, 63, Orange Cove 58, Porterville 63, Delano 66

Record Temperatures: 92/34. Average Temperatures: 71/45

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 0 -4

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for April so far: 61.3 +3.2

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 9.22 season. or -.67. Month to Date: .14 -.03

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  5.90, or +.23.  Month to Date: .01 -.09

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

 

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

 

Sunrise: 6:38 am  Sunset: 7:25 pm. Hours of Daylight:  12:43

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  69 /  51 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  67 /  51 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  69 /  48 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  69 /  49 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  66 /  53 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  67 /  49 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1658 /  66 /  50 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  68 /  47 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1656 /  66 /  52 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  67 /  55 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00   15.54   126    7.37    60    12.35    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00   12.03   107    5.78    51    11.27    13.11

MERCED                        0.00   11.84   111    5.66    53    10.69    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    9.75    95    6.51    64    10.25    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    9.22    93    6.09    62     9.89    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    7.49    87    4.41    51     8.64    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    5.90   104    3.73    66     5.67     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    7.55   184    0.82    20     4.10     5.18

SALINAS                       0.02   12.07   106    5.29    46    11.44    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   14.00   120    9.42    81    11.63    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   14.47   115    5.60    44    12.62    13.95

 

Next report:  Saturday morning/April 6