April 29, 2019
Summary: A closed low is centered near Orange County this morning and is tracking eastward. The northern rim of the counterclockwise circulation is over the south valley with Doppler Radar showing scattered light showers from roughly Porterville south. So far, the heaviest rainfall amount I could find as of 6:00am was .09 at Mettler with all other locations reporting just trace amounts to a few hundredths. From Fresno County northward, no precipitation has been reported. Models show the possible development of some pretty decent thunderstorms this afternoon over the Sierra Nevada from Fresno County south and over the Kern County mountains. There is a small chance of an isolated thunderstorm moving from east to west over the valley floor this afternoon with most of the activity continuing to be from roughly a Porterville/Tipton line south.
The low will track eastward, moving into Arizona, later tonight and Tuesday morning with clearing skies and dry weather. It has certainly deepened the marine layer which is now 3,000 feet thick and is gushing over the Coast Range and into the valley. Winds through Pacheco Pass are sustained at 39, gusting to 46 MPH while at Cottonwood Pass, winds are currently gusting to 31 MPH. Obviously, with cloud cover and the valley pooling with marine air, much cooler temperatures can be expected, especially in Kern County.
Another low will drop out of the Pacific Northwest Tuesday and into the Great Basin with no active weather for central California. Pressure patterns, however, will remain fairly low, keeping temperatures comfortable through Thursday with temperatures hovering near seasonal averages. Readings will warm up over the weekend as a temporary ridge of high pressure moves in from the west.
Models vary a great deal on a solution for early next week. It does appear, though, that some kind of low pressure system will move inland during that time frame. The GFS model shows this storm tracking right through central California with a chance of showers, mainly over the mountains. After Monday, dry weather will return as high pressure again builds in from the west.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy through this evening with a chance of scattered light showers, mainly south of a Porterville/Tipton line. Clearing later tonight. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Saturday night. variable cloudiness Sunday through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 77/52/78/49/80 | Reedley 77/51/78/50/81 | Dinuba 76/52/78/49/80 | |
| Porterville 75/52/79/49/81 | Lindsay 75/51/78/48/79 | Delano 74/53/79/51/81 | |
| Bakersfield 74/57/78/54/80 | Taft 74/57/77/54/80 | Arvin 74/55/79/52/79 | |
| Lamont 75/54/78/52/81 | Pixley 76/53/79/48/80 | Tulare 77/51/78/48/79 | |
| Woodlake 77/52/79/49/80 | Hanford 78/52/79/50/81 | Orosi 77/52/79/49/80 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 52/83 |
Friday
Mostly clear 53/85 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 54/86 |
Sunday
Variable clouds 56/80 |
Monday
Variable clouds 48/74 |
Two Week Outlook: May 6 through May 12: This model indicates the pattern will remain fairly active over the west. Even though the chance of rain remains low, it certainly cannot be eliminated. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
May: As we now enter the dry season, precipitation chances, according to this model, will be that of most Mays, in other words, near seasonal. Nothing too dramatic shows up as far as temperatures are concerned with readings near to marginally above average.
May, June, July: As we move through the late spring through mid summer, precipitation opportunities will be typical, in other words, not very high and that’s especially true for June and July. For this 90 day period, temperatures are projected to run somewhat above seasonal values.
Winds: Winds will be mostly out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH through this evening, however local gusts to near 35 MPH are possible near the base of the Coastal Mountains. Winds Tuesday through Thursday will be generally at or less than 15 MPH and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.
Rain: As of 6:00am, Mettler had recorded .09 and Bakersfield .02. all other locations either reported trace amounts or .01. No measurable rain has been reported over Fresno and Madera Counties and northern Tulare County. The chance for light showers will continue for the remainder of the day. My main concern is the possibility of thunderstorms over the Kern County mountains and the southern Sierra Nevada. With winds aloft out of the east/northeast, it’s possible a storm or two could be sustained over the valley floor for the possibility of isolated locations picking up brief, heavy rain. The vast majority of locations, however, will record less than .10 with no precipitation expected in Fresno and Madera Counties but with measurable rain expected generally south of a Porterville/Tipton line. The storm will move into Arizona later this evening, ending the rain threat. Expect dry weather Tuesday and for the rest of the week. Models are inconclusive regarding a low which theoretically should move inland Sunday or Monday. For now, I cannot rule out a small chance of showers during this time frame, but there’s too much model disparity at this point for me to add showers to the forecast at this time.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 40%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 50%/80%
Actual Humidity April 26, 2019: Delano, NA, Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 80% Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.84, Parlier 1.65, Blackwell 1.85, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.82, Orange Cove 1.65, Porterville 1.67, Delano 1.68. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 66, Parlier 70, Blackwell 72, Lindcove, 65, Arvin, 71, Orange Cove 64, Porterville 70, Delano 73
Record Temperatures: 96/35. Average Temperatures: 79/50
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 86 +53
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for April so far: 65.7 +5.3
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 9.47 season. or -1.15. Month to Date: .39 -.51
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 5.94, or -.13. Month to Date: .05 -.45
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:06 am Sunset: 7:46 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:37
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 88 / 51 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 88 / 57 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 90 / 51 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 90 / 48 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 89 / 60 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 87 / 52 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 89 / 52 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1658 / 88 / 62 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 15.79 121 9.09 69 13.10 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 12.06 100 8.00 67 12.03 13.11
MERCED 0.00 11.87 104 6.91 60 11.43 12.50
MADERA 0.00 9.84 89 7.22 66 11.01 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 9.47 89 6.73 63 10.62 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 7.67 83 4.70 51 9.27 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 5.94 98 3.93 65 6.07 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 7.55 176 1.13 26 4.30 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 12.31 101 7.13 59 12.15 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.10 116 9.62 79 12.14 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 14.53 109 6.01 45 13.37 13.95
Next report: Tuesday morning/April 30