May 6, 2019
Summary: A weak upper low is centered right near Lompoc this morning and is moving slowly southeastward. There are isolated pockets of light showers over the coast range and off shore, but the remainder of central California remains dry. As of the time of this writing, Paso Robles was reporting light rain. The counterclockwise circulation around the low has winds at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere running from northeast to southwest, so the only chance of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms today will take place this afternoon with some activity possibly moving off the Sierra Nevada and into the south valley. The movement of this storm does not favor measurable rain for the valley, but even so, a slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms is warranted for this afternoon and evening.
By this evening, the low will be centered near Los Angeles and will move through southern California tonight and into western Arizona Tuesday morning. This will allow a large trough of low pressure from the Rockies to dig southwestward over California by Thursday afternoon. Most models project a large low center just off the central coast Friday. Unlike previous systems that have moved through, this system will bring with it a greater risk of showers and isolated thunderstorms. This will be a slow moving system, so there will be a chance of measurable rain at any time from late Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning. The greatest risk will be Friday through Friday night as the center of circulation will be nearby.
Dry weather will return Saturday night and last through the first few days of next week. The overall pattern from around the 15th through the 20th indicates a broad trough of low pressure will be over the western states. The ramifications of this pattern are unclear at this time, but we will experience near to somewhat below average temperatures and a greater risk of precipitation, considering this is may and theoretically we’re entering the dry season.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness today and tonight. A small chance of widely scattered light showers or isolated thunderstorms, mainly near the Sierra Nevada foothills this afternoon and evening. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Wednesday night. increasing cloudiness Thursday morning. A chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms from late Thursday afternoon through Saturday morning. Greatest risk of measurable rain will be Friday through Friday evening. Partly cloudy Saturday afternoon. Mostly clear Saturday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 74/51/70/53/83 | Reedley 73/52/79/53/83 | Dinuba 72/50/77/52/81 | |
| Porterville 72/53/78/54/83 | Lindsay 73/50/79/52/82 | Delano 71/55/79/55/82 | |
| Bakersfield 71/59/78/58/83 | Taft 70/56/77/57/82 | Arvin 70/55/78/54/83 | |
| Lamont 71/54/78/55/83 | Pixley 72/51/78/54/82 | Tulare 73/51/78/53/81 | |
| Woodlake 73/50/79/52/82 | Hanford 74/52/79/54/83 | Orosi 73/50/78/54/82 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
PM showers 57/79 |
Friday
Chance of showers 57/77 |
Saturday
AM showers 58/75 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 56/83 |
Monday
Mostly clear 55/84 |
Two Week Outlook: May 13 through May 19: Models indicate a broad trough of low pressure will be fairly dominant during this time frame, resulting in at least marginally below average temperatures. The chance for rain during this time frame would be greater than average, especially along the Sierra Nevada, but it cannot be ruled out over the valley floor.
May: As we now enter the dry season, precipitation chances, according to this model, will be that of most Mays, in other words, near seasonal. Nothing too dramatic shows up as far as temperatures are concerned with readings near to marginally above average.
May, June, July: As we move through the late spring through mid summer, precipitation opportunities will be typical, in other words, not very high and that’s especially true for June and July. For this 90 day period, temperatures are projected to run somewhat above seasonal values.
Winds: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 15 MPH through this evening with local gusts to 30 MPH, mainly along the west side near the I 5 corridor. Winds later today through Wednesday night will be generally at or less than 15 MPH and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings. Winds Thursday will be out of the west to northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain: The center of circulation of a weak upper low is near Lompoc this morning and is drifting slowly towards the southeast. So far, the only precipitation has been along the coast and over the coastal mountains. The chance of measurable rain over the valley floor today and tonight is very low. The greatest risk, low as it may be, will be along the Sierra Nevada foothills of Tulare County and possibly in Kern County this afternoon and evening. If precipitation does occur, amounts will be generally less than .10. Dry conditions will return later tonight and continue through Thursday morning. A greater risk of rain will begin later Thursday afternoon and continue through at least Saturday morning. A big low is projected to form just off the central coast with a higher amount of moisture involved. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible. The greatest risk will be Friday through Friday night. amounts of rain from this event will generally be less than .10 with locally higher amounts, especially if thunderstorms develop. Dry weather should return by Saturday evening and continue through the middle of next week. Medium range models continue to show a broad area of low pressure over the western states for a higher than average risk of showers, especially over the mountains, through the 19th.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s. Humidity values ranging from 40%/85% at Hanford. Bakersfield 40%/70%
Actual Humidity May 5, 2019: Delano, 67%/26% Porterville, 64%/15%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 60% Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.74, Parlier 1.61, Blackwell 1.79, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.69, Orange Cove NA, Porterville 1.60, Delano 1.70. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 67, Parlier 68, Blackwell 73, Lindcove, NA, Arvin, 70, Orange Cove 64, Porterville 73, Delano 71
Record Temperatures: 100/41. Average Temperatures: 81/52
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 103 +53
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for May so far: 66.9 +1.3
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 9.47 season. or -1.30. Month to Date: .00 -.10
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 6.00, or -.14. Month to Date: .00 -.05
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:59 am Sunset: 7:53 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:51
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 83 / 48 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 80 / 55 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 83 / 50 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 82 / 51 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 83 / 56 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 80 / 49 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / M / 59 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 82 / 50 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1655 / 86 / 52 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 15.79 119 9.09 69 13.27 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 12.06 99 8.00 66 12.21 13.11
MERCED 0.00 11.87 102 6.91 59 11.63 12.50
MADERA 0.00 9.84 88 7.22 65 11.19 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 9.47 88 6.73 62 10.77 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 7.67 81 4.70 50 9.42 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 6.00 98 3.93 64 6.14 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 7.55 174 1.22 28 4.34 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 12.31 100 7.13 58 12.27 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 14.11 115 9.62 79 12.24 12.78
SANTA MARIA T 14.77 109 6.01 45 13.50 13.95
Next report: Tuesday morning/May 7