May 7, 2019
Summary: The low center which spawned scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over the mountains yesterday has now moved on and currently resides over western Arizona. Upper level high pressure is centered off the coast of the Pacific Northwest while a broad trough of low pressure covers the interior west. California is essentially temporarily between the trough to our east and upper level high pressure off shore, resulting in a weak northerly flow aloft. As we move into the Thursday/Friday time frame, the trough to our east will begin to be oriented northeast to southwest, or from the northern Rockies to northern California. Along the southwestern portion of the trough, a closed low will develop and should be centered just to our west Friday into early Saturday. This appears to be a fairly active pattern with numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms over the mountains and a fairly high risk of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms possibly as early as Thursday afternoon.
The low will slowly move to a position off the southern California coast Saturday afternoon then eastward through southern California Sunday. The risk for showers will continue all the way into early Saturday, especially in the south valley. The low will weaken Monday and move into Arizona, ending additional chances of precipitation, at least temporarily.
Medium range models beginning the middle of next week show the formation of an elongated trough of low pressure from off the British Columbia coast to central California. I realize this is still a ways off, even so, it is an interesting pattern and one which could renew the chance of showers, especially over the mountain areas. The two week model for the 14 through the 20 is showing a risk of showers.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Wednesday night. increasing cloudiness Thursday morning, leading a chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be likely Thursday night through Saturday morning with a small chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon into early Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Mostly clear Monday afternoon through Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 79/54/83/55/83 | Reedley 79/54/83/55/82 | Dinuba 78/53/84/55/82 | |
| Porterville 79/53/84/55/82 | Lindsay 78/52/84/55/83 | Delano 79/55/84/57/83 | |
| Bakersfield 77/58/83/60/83 | Taft 79/58/84/62/82 | Arvin 78/56/83/59/83 | |
| Lamont 78/56/83/58/83 | Pixley 78/54/84/56/82 | Tulare 77/53/82/54/81 | |
| Woodlake 78/53/83/55/83 | Hanford 79/54/83/56/83 | Orosi 78/52/82/55/82 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Showers likely 59/74 |
Saturday
Showers likely 58/76 |
Sunday
AM showers 57/71 |
Monday
Mostly clear 56/84 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 57/86 |
Two Week Outlook: May 14 through May 20: This model continues to show a broad expanse of low pressure over the eastern Pacific Ocean and western U.S. it’s possible periods of showers could occur during this time frame with temperatures largely below seasonal values.
May: As we now enter the dry season, precipitation chances, according to this model, will be that of most Mays, in other words, near seasonal. Nothing too dramatic shows up as far as temperatures are concerned with readings near to marginally above average.
May, June, July: As we move through the late spring through mid summer, precipitation opportunities will be typical, in other words, not very high and that’s especially true for June and July. For this 90 day period, temperatures are projected to run somewhat above seasonal values.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 15 MPH through Wednesday night and mainly out of the southwest during the afternoons. Winds Thursday and Friday will be variable to 20 MPH with stronger gusts in the vicinity of showers.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Thursday morning. The chance of measurable rain will begin to increase Thursday afternoon in the form of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will then become likely at times Thursday night through Saturday morning as a low pressure system becomes anchored just off shore. The low will begin to move through southern California Saturday night and Sunday with the risk of showers continuing in the south valley Saturday afternoon into early Sunday. From Sunday afternoon through Tuesday night, dry conditions can be expected.
It now appears we may see another period of unsettled weather Wednesday through Friday of next week as a new trough extends from the Gulf of Alaska to central California. For now, it looks like most of the precipitation will be over the mountain areas. Nevertheless, we cannot rule out a chance of measurable rain for the valley floor as well. Even the two week model which goes out through the 20th shows a trough along the west coast for a higher than average risk of precipitation.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 35%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 35%/80%
Actual Humidity May 6, 2019: Delano, 74%/35% Porterville, 81%/30%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 80% Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.74, Parlier 1.61, Blackwell 1.82, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.68, Orange Cove 1.59, Porterville 1.63, Delano 1.71. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 67, Parlier 68, Blackwell 73, Lindcove, NA, Arvin, 70, Orange Cove 65, Porterville 73, Delano 71
Record Temperatures: 103/36. Average Temperatures: 82/52
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 105 +52
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for May so far: 66.9 +1.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 9.47 season. or -1.32. Month to Date: .00 -.12
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 6.00, or -.14. Month to Date: .00 -.05
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:58 am Sunset: 7:53 pm. Hours of Daylight: 13:52
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 79 / 53 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 77 / 56 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 79 / 55 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 80 / 52 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 77 / 53 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / 71 / 56 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 77 / 49 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 79 / 56 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 69 / 53 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 15.79 119 9.09 68 13.29 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 12.06 99 8.00 65 12.24 13.11
MERCED 0.00 11.87 102 6.91 59 11.66 12.50
MADERA 0.00 9.84 88 7.22 64 11.21 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 9.47 88 6.73 62 10.79 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 7.67 81 4.70 50 9.44 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 6.00 98 3.93 64 6.14 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 7.55 174 1.22 28 4.34 5.18
SALINAS T 12.31 100 7.13 58 12.29 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.01 14.12 115 9.62 79 12.25 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.05 14.82 110 6.01 44 13.51 13.95
Next report: Wednesday morning/May 8