May 16, 2019
Summary: Here are some updated rainfall totals as of 1:00pm: Madera .54, Clovis .79, Fresno .55, Firebaugh .26, Lemoore .73, Hanford .35, Visalia .21, Tulare .18, Kettleman Hills .09, Huron .04, Porterville .28, Bakersfield .06, Lamont .22, Mettler .07, and Taft .03.
As of 1:15pm, from basically northern Kings County and northwest Tulare County southward into northwest kern County, heavy showers and thunderstorms were pounding the area and were crossing Highway 99 into the eastern flank of the valley. We are currently in the time of maximum daytime heating which is quite strong this late in the season. Combine that with cold, very unstable air aloft and we will continue to observe locally heavy showers and scattered thunderstorms through the evening. Rainfall amounts will vary from scant to considerable along with small hail where thunderstorms develop.
Showers will continue into the late evening hours then wind down about midnight. A weak ridge of high pressure will fill in from the west Friday through early Saturday for a period of dry weather. It still appears, though, that a renewed risk of showers will spread over the valley Saturday evening with periods of showers continuing Sunday into Sunday night. this storm appears similar to the current system we’re dealing with, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a new threat of scattered thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening.
Models still vary a great deal for Monday through Thursday of next week. One model shows yet another low moving into northern and central California Tuesday while other models just show a chance of showers over the Sierra Nevada with a low chance of showers over the valley floor. Somewhat unsettled weather due to a large low over the western states will continue through Thursday with the likelihood of showers and isolated thunderstorms each day over the Sierra Nevada with a slight chance over the valley floor. There will be a possible exception Tuesday when the risk factor appears to be higher.
A weaker version of low pressure will be over the western states weekend after next. At least it appears to be dry with to marginally below average temperatures.
Forecast: Showers into the late evening hours with a continuing risk of thunderstorms through the evening. A much smaller chance of showers after midnight. Partly cloudy Friday through Saturday morning. Increasing cloudiness Saturday afternoon. Showers spreading over the valley Saturday evening, continuing through Sunday night. a slight chance of showers Monday and Monday night with a greater risk of showers Tuesday and Tuesday night. a slight chance of showers Wednesday through Thursday.
Temperatures: Overnight lows will range in the mid-40s to the lower 50s. Highs Friday will struggle into the upper 60s. Mid 40s to lower 50s can be expected Friday night with readings climbing back into the mid 70s Saturday.