May 16, 2019
Summary: Rainfall amounts thus far in Madera and Fresno Counties have exceeded .50 in many locations with as much as .33 in Kings County. Lesser amounts have been tallied in Tulare and Kern Counties. The main frontal band is now moving into the Sierra Nevada. It will move into western Nevada by late morning. Doppler radar is showing a spattering of widely scattered showers behind the front as the parent low begins to make its move on northern California later today. As that low passes to our north, a pool of cold, unstable air will move over the valley floor just in time for maximum daytime heating. This will be the catalyst for possible isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. As per usual, these storms will be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail.
The chance for showers will continue well into tonight as the backside of the low will not clear central California until the wee small hours of Friday morning. Friday will be dry. As a weak ridge moves in, temperatures will moderate with temperatures in the mid 70s Saturday.
That will be short lived however as a new and what is becoming impressive storm system for this late in the season is projected by models to be right off the northern California coast Saturday night, spreading precipitation into central California as early as Saturday evening. Periods of showers will continue Sunday into Sunday evening with another chance of isolated to scattered thunderstorms Sunday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.
The pattern for next week continues to be dominated by a broad expanse of low pressure over the western states. With such model disparity, it’s difficult to discern the exact ramifications for the valley floor, but it does appear likely there will be showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada from time to time with a small chance on the valley floor just about daily, depending on timing and possible strength of impulses moving through the main low. Typically, this time of year we’d see mid to upper 80s for daytime highs. Forget about that for a while as temperatures this afternoon, for example, will not even reach the 70 degree mark at most locations. Below average temperatures will continue for at least the next week.
Forecast: Showers today with a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Showers tonight, tapering off after midnight. Partly cloudy Friday through Saturday. Showers spreading over the valley Saturday evening with periods of showers later Saturday night through Sunday evening. A chance of isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. A chance of showers Sunday night. variable cloudiness at times Monday through Thursday with a small chance of showers each day, especially from Fresno County north.
Short Term:
| Madera 67/47/69/46/75 | Reedley 68/47/70/47/74 | Dinuba 67/46/69/46/73 | |
| Porterville 68/47/69/47/75 | Lindsay 68/46/70/46/76 | Delano 69/49/70/48/76 | |
| Bakersfield 70/53/71/52/77 | Taft 70/53/71/53/75 | Arvin 70/50/72/51/77 | |
| Lamont 69/50/72/50/77 | Pixley 68/48/71/48/76 | Tulare 68/46/69/46/74 | |
| Woodlake 67/46/68/47/74 | Hanford 68/48/69/48/75 | Orosi 68/46/69/46/74 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Showers likely 52/70 |
Monday
Slight chance of showers 48/73 |
Tuesday
Slight chance of showers 51/77 |
Wednesday
Slight chance of showers 53/76 |
Thursday
Slight chance of showers 52/75 |
Two Week Outlook: May 23 through May 29: This model predicts above average precipitation for much of the western U.S. with the main bulls eye at northern California. The risk of very late season will continue to be relatively high during this period with below average temperatures.
May: As we now enter the dry season, precipitation chances, according to this model, will be that of most Mays, in other words, near seasonal. Nothing too dramatic shows up as far as temperatures are concerned with readings near to marginally above average.
May, June, July: As we move through the late spring through mid summer, precipitation opportunities will be typical, in other words, not very high and that’s especially true for June and July. For this 90 day period, temperatures are projected to run somewhat above seasonal values.
Winds: Winds through this evening will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times with stronger gusts, especially in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms. Winds later tonight through Saturday will decrease to 5 to 15 MPH, becoming variable in nature. Winds Saturday night will be out of the south to southeast at 10 to 20 MPH, switching to the northwest Sunday with possible stronger gusts.
Rain: The following are representative rainfall amounts as of 6:00am today: Fresno .43, Madera .54, Del Rey .31, Lemoore .61, Hanford .26, Tulare .12, Porterville .03, Delano .02, Bakersfield .03, and Mettler .01.
The precipitation pattern later this morning through tonight will be widely scattered. Look for a lull in the action from midmorning through early afternoon then, as the daytime heating component kicks in, scattered showers and thunderstorms will break out. Thunderstorms will be accompanied by localized heavy rain and small hail.
The risk for showers will continue to be fairly high tonight, especially before midnight, decreasing during the early morning hours. Dry weather will return Friday through Saturday. Rainfall amounts from now through tonight will range from a few hundredths to possibly another half inch where thunderstorms occur.
The chance of precipitation will increase rapidly Saturday evening as another strong cold front sweeps in from the eastern Pacific. Showers will continue through at least Sunday evening with possibly another round of isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. For now, this system appears to be at least equal to the present event as far as precipitation totals go.
Models are all over the place for next week. They do, however, indicate predominantly low pressure over the western states and off shore for an almost daily chance of showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada. For now, it’s wise to just keep a low chance of showers on the valley floor in the forecast each day, especially for Fresno County north.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s. Humidity values ranging from 60%/95% at Hanford. Bakersfield 50%/85%
Actual Humidity May 15, 2019: Delano, 77%/37% Porterville, 81%/30%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 60% Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.38, Parlier 1.51, Blackwell 1.63, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.61, Orange Cove 1.61, Porterville 1.57, Delano 1.50. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 71, Parlier 71, Blackwell 75, Lindcove, NA, Arvin, 71, Orange Cove 69, Porterville 76, Delano 74
Record Temperatures: 103/40. Average Temperatures: 84/54
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 160 +69
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for May so far: 69.3 +2.3
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 9.55 season. or -1.37. Month to Date: .25 -.17
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 6.32, or +.12. Month to Date: .32 +.21
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:50 am Sunset: 8:01 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:09
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 79 / 61 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 76 / 62 / T /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 77 / 62 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 77 / 61 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 82 / 66 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 66 / 61 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / 73 / 62 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 73 / 61 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1655 / 79 / 64 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 69 / 57 / 0.06 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.12 15.91 118 9.09 68 13.45 14.06
MODESTO 0.04 12.10 97 8.00 64 12.43 13.11
MERCED 0.00 11.87 100 6.91 58 11.88 12.50
MADERA T 9.84 86 7.22 63 11.41 12.02
FRESNO T 9.49 87 6.73 62 10.92 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 7.67 80 4.70 49 9.57 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 6.32 102 3.93 63 6.20 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 8.09 184 1.25 28 4.39 5.18
SALINAS 0.02 12.42 100 7.13 57 12.40 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 14.12 114 9.62 78 12.34 12.78
SANTA MARIA T 14.83 109 6.01 44 13.62 13.95
Next report: Thursday afternoon/May 16