May 20, 2019
Summary: As of 6:00am, Navelencia was reporting a temperature of 40 degrees with widespread low to mid 40s throughout the valley this morning. This is about as cold as you’ll ever see it this time of year. Even though considerable sunshine will prevail, the air mass remains very c old for the time of year as we’re now under a northwest flow behind yesterday’s very active storm. That storm is now centered near the Nevada/Utah border. To give you an idea how much rain has accumulated over the past 5 days, here are some sample rain totals. Stratford 1.57, Parlier 1.23, Blackwell .30, Lindcove 1.00, Arvin 1.07, Orange Cove 1.46, Porterville .95, Delano 1.27, Bakersfield 1.41, Fresno 1.64.
In most cases, these totals are more than 5 times what would normally be received for the entire month of May. It now appears no more extremely wet systems are at hand in the near future. The next low will increase the chance of rain and thunderstorms over the valley Tuesday and Tuesday night. however, models indicate this system will not carry abundant moisture with most locations recording less than .10. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and evening, though, so localized much heavier amounts cannot be ruled out.
From late Tuesday through Wednesday, an elongated low pressure system will stretch from Kansas on the east to central California on the west. The middle of the country will experience severe weather, but central California will just see showers each day over the Sierra Nevada. The chance of measurable rain from Wednesday through Friday is low, as well.
Over the weekend, a new low will drop southward from the Pacific Northwest and into California. For now, the total ramifications of this system are unknown, but a chance of scattered showers is likely Saturday through Monday and isolated thunderstorms will be possible.
After Monday, at least the lower elevations appear dry, but some models keep at least a weak low pressure area over the west during the first five days of June, keeping temperatures below average.
Forecast: Partly cloudy through tonight. Variable cloudiness Tuesday through Wednesday with a chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly Tuesday afternoon and night. partly cloudy Thursday night through Friday. Variable cloudiness Friday night through Monday with a chance of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Short Term:
| Madera 68/47/65/46/67 | Reedley 69/47/65/46/68 | Dinuba 67/46/65/46/67 | |
| Porterville 68/46/65/46/68 | Lindsay 68/46/65/46/67 | Delano 69/48/65/48/68 | |
| Bakersfield 67/50/66/50/67 | Taft 69/52/65/50/66 | Arvin 66/50/66/49/67 | |
| Lamont 67/50/66/49/67 | Pixley 68/48/66/48/68 | Tulare 67/46/65/47/67 | |
| Woodlake 68/47/65/46/67 | Hanford 68/47/65/48/68 | Orosi 67/45/65/46/68 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Partly cloudy 52/71 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 53/78 |
Saturday
Chance of showers 55/77 |
Sunday
Chance of showers 52/77 |
Monday
Chance of showers 48/78 |
Two Week Outlook: May 27 through June 2: This model does not give up on a trough of low pressure covering most of the west during this period. The risk for showers will be higher than average for this late in the season with a continuation of at least marginally below average temperatures.
May: As we now enter the dry season, precipitation chances, according to this model, will be that of most Mays, in other words, near seasonal. Nothing too dramatic shows up as far as temperatures are concerned with readings near to marginally above average.
May, June, July: As we move through the late spring through mid summer, precipitation opportunities will be typical, in other words, not very high and that’s especially true for June and July. For this 90 day period, temperatures are projected to run somewhat above seasonal values.
Winds: Winds through tonight will be variable to 12 MPH. Winds Tuesday through Thursday will range between 5 and 15 MPH with local gusts to near 25 MPH possible in the vicinity of showers or isolated thunderstorms.
Rain: We are in the midst of a temporary dry slot in out weather. Fortunately, I no longer see widespread heavy precipitation on the horizon. However, we are not out of the woods as far as measurable precipitation is concerned. The next storm will arrive Tuesday. It will be much more widely scattered than previous storms with most locations picking up less than .10 from Tuesday morning through night. However, isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Tuesday afternoon and evening. If they do break out, areas hit by a storm can expect localized heavy rain and small hail. Wednesday will be dry with a slight chance of showers Thursday and Friday, mainly near the foothills. Over the weekend, a new low will drop southward from the Pacific Northwest and into California for a renewed chance of showers. If precipitation occurs from this system, the pattern will be widely scattered. Isolated thunderstorms will again be possible, and we all know the ramifications from them. For now it appears next Tuesday will begin a period of dry weather, however that is a bit of a low confidence forecast due to the fact some models are showing low pressure of some form over the western states.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s. Humidity values ranging from 45%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 50%/80%
Actual Humidity May 19, 2019: Delano, 100%/45% Porterville, 98%/42%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 20% Bakersfield: Today: 50% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.06, Parlier 1.23, Blackwell 1.37, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.32, Orange Cove 1.14, Porterville 1.25, Delano 1.27. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 69, Parlier 68, Blackwell 74, Lindcove, NA, Arvin, 69, Orange Cove 69, Porterville 74, Delano 71
Record Temperatures: 102/44. Average Temperatures: 85/55
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 160 +48
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for May so far: 67.3 -0.1
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.11 season. or +.14. Month to Date: 1.64 +1.34
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.41, or +1.19. Month to Date: 1.41 +1.28
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:47 am Sunset: 8:04 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:15
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 72 / 48 / 0.02 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 68 / 51 / T /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 71 / 47 / 0.03 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 71 / 44 / 0.01 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / M / M / T /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 70 / 47 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / 70 / 64 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 72 / 45 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 71 / 53 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.64 17.84 132 9.09 67 13.52 14.06
MODESTO M 12.78 102 8.00 64 12.52 13.11
MERCED 0.17 12.92 108 6.91 58 11.95 12.50
MADERA 0.22 10.82 94 7.22 63 11.47 12.02
FRESNO 0.54 11.07 101 6.73 61 10.97 11.50
HANFORD 0.16 8.58 89 4.70 49 9.62 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.28 7.36 118 3.93 63 6.22 6.47
BISHOP T 8.37 189 1.25 28 4.42 5.18
SALINAS 0.45 13.58 109 7.13 57 12.44 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.21 14.79 120 9.62 78 12.37 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.17 15.55 114 6.01 44 13.66 13.95
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Next report: Tuesday morning/May 21