May 23, 2019
Summary: A cold area of low pressure is now centered over southeast California. It is a broad low and encompasses most of the western United States. The counterclockwise circulation around this system has the winds aloft above central California out of the north/northwest. Embedded within this flow are weak disturbances, one of which is moving through the south valley early this morning. It is accompanied by light showers. The position of the low will continue to result in a risk of light showers today and tonight. An isolated thunderstorm or two would not be out of the realm of possibility this afternoon. The low will begin to pull off to the northeast Friday. The Sierra Nevada will continue to be prone to showers and thunderstorms through Friday evening before a brief lull begins to occur Friday night and early Saturday.
By Saturday morning, a new low center will be dropping southward from the Pacific Northwest into northern California, spreading showers southward during the day. Showers should begin to affect the valley by midday Saturday and, if some of these models are correct, the center of circulation of this storm will be virtually right overhead Sunday. This means the pool of cold, unstable air will be right overhead, as well.
Showers will be likely Sunday and more than likely through the first part of the day Memorial Day. By Monday afternoon, the low will be pushing into the Desert Southwest, ending the chance of showers over the valley, but remaining over the Sierra Nevada through Monday night.
We still have Tuesday pegged as turnaround day as we enter into a dry pattern. A flat zone of upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific will begin to push inland Tuesday, dominating our pattern through next Friday. This high doesn’t look particularly strong, so temperatures will generally be close to average. Some models show a new trough about a week from Saturday, moving into California. However, precipitation should remain well to our north. We may see somewhat cooler temperatures next weekend.
Forecast: The chance of showers will continue through tonight, most numerous in the south valley. Partly cloudy Friday with a small chance of showers near the foothills, mainly Friday afternoon. Partly cloudy Friday night into Saturday morning. Showers becoming likely Saturday afternoon and at times through Monday morning. Scattered thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon with a higher risk Sunday afternoon. A slight chance of showers near the foothills Monday afternoon. Becoming partly cloudy Monday night through Tuesday morning. Mostly clear Tuesday afternoon through Thursday with a warming trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 73/52/78/56/81 | Reedley 74/52/79/57/80 | Dinuba 72/51/78/57/79 | |
| Porterville 73/53/78/56/81 | Lindsay 72/51/79/58/81 | Delano 73/54/80/57/81 | |
| Bakersfield 72/56/78/59/82 | Taft 73/57/79/71/81 | Arvin 71/55/79/57/82 | |
| Lamont 72/55/79/58/82 | Pixley 72/53/79/57/81 | Tulare 72/52/78/56/79 | |
| Woodlake 73/51/79/55/79 | Hanford 73/55/80/57/81 | Orosi 73/52/78/55/80 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Showers likely 54/62 |
Monday
AM showers 50/71 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 51/78 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 56/86 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 55/88 |
Two Week Outlook: May 30 through June 5: Finally, the two week model shows the likely category of precipitation from the Sierra Nevada east. It does not indicate a strong high will be over the western states, so temperatures should be near average with the chance of precipitation returning to the very low category.
May: As we now enter the dry season, precipitation chances, according to this model, will be that of most Mays, in other words, near seasonal. Nothing too dramatic shows up as far as temperatures are concerned with readings near to marginally above average.
May, June, July: As we move through the late spring through mid summer, precipitation opportunities will be typical, in other words, not very high and that’s especially true for June and July. For this 90 day period, temperatures are projected to run somewhat above seasonal values.
Winds: Winds will be variable to 15 MPH through Friday night with locally stronger gusts, especially in the vicinity of showers. Later Saturday through Monday, winds will periodically be in the 10 to 20 MPH range with stronger gusts, mainly near showers and especially thunderstorms.
Rain: Doppler radar this morning indicates numerous light showers are over Tulare and Kern Counties, moving from northwest to southeast. We will continue to be under the influence of a low pressure system centered over southeast California, so the chance of showers will continue through tonight. Most locations will record less than .10, possibly locally more under heavier showers. For now, Friday looks to be a dry day, however I want to preface this with a chance of showers near the foothills Friday afternoon and evening. We’ll have a few hours of dry weather Friday night into Saturday morning before our next nemesis arrives. This will be a cold upper level low ridging into western Canada. It will eventually drop into central California. The chance of showers will begin to increase by midday Saturday and continue through Monday morning. This is a cold core low which this time of year means there will be a reasonably high risk of scattered thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday afternoons and evenings. The highest risk will be Sunday. Rainfall amounts will vary widely with this storm, possibly ranging from .10 on the low side to as much as .50 when and if thunderstorms occur. Small hail will again be a challenge. This storm should be far enough to the east by Monday afternoon for a drying trend to begin. Finally, we should see a prolonged period of dry weather beginning Tuesday which will last through the remainder of next week and, considering the time of year, more than likely through the next week as well.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Humidity values ranging from 50%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 50%/90%
Actual Humidity May 22, 2019: Delano, 100%/51% Porterville, 96%/56%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 60% Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .88, Parlier 1.16, Blackwell 1.09, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.08, Orange Cove 1.08, Porterville .98, Delano 1.06. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 67, Parlier 66, Blackwell 70, Lindcove, NA, Arvin, 67, Orange Cove 67, Porterville 69, Delano 66
Record Temperatures: 103/44. Average Temperatures: 86/56
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 160 +30
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for May so far: 66.4 -1.4
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.26 season. or +.26. Month to Date: 1.79 +1.46
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.41, or +1.17. Month to Date: 1.41 +1.26
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:45 am Sunset: 8:07 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:19
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 73 / 54 / 0.43 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 67 / 53 / 0.15 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 70 / 51 / 0.01 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 71 / 50 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 66 / 52 / T /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 68 / 52 / 0.05 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1700 / M / M / 0.03 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 65 / 51 / 0.03 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1700 / 63 / 50 / 0.12 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 71 / 53 / M /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.07 18.32 135 9.09 67 13.56 14.06
MODESTO 0.01 12.89 103 8.00 64 12.57 13.11
MERCED 0.02 13.13 110 6.91 58 11.98 12.50
MADERA 0.11 11.38 99 7.22 63 11.49 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.26 102 6.73 61 11.00 11.50
HANFORD T 8.70 90 4.70 49 9.65 10.10
BAKERSFIELD T 7.41 119 3.93 63 6.24 6.47
BISHOP T 8.37 189 1.47 33 4.44 5.18
SALINAS 0.02 13.72 110 7.13 57 12.47 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 14.85 120 9.62 78 12.39 12.78
SANTA MARIA T 15.56 114 6.01 44 13.68 13.95
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Next report: Friday, May 24