May 26, 2019
Summary: Showers are widespread over northern and central California at this hour, mainly north of Kern County. The center of circulation of the latest cold core low appears to be over the lower Sacramento Valley. The center of this storm will be right overhead by mid to late afternoon which will favor the development of more showers with a fairly high risk of thunderstorms any time from late morning through the evening hours.
This system has one characteristic the previous storms did not have. This one is a fast mover so precipitation over the valley should end relatively quickly once we progress past the late evening hours. By early tomorrow morning, the low will be centered over southern Nevada, putting us in a cool northwest flow aloft. It’s possible Kern County may experience upslope clouds into early Monday morning. This, no doubt, will go down as the coolest day on record in the valley for the date. If the cloud canopy is dense enough, readings will struggle to reach the lower 60s in most areas.
Beginning Monday, a warming trend will set up, even though temperatures will still be well below average. Even though a weak trough of low pressure will remain over the west, the strong sun angle this time of year will warm temperatures up to finally near seasonal averages by the late part of the work week and possibly may push the 90 degree mark by this coming weekend. For now, there are no triple digits in sight as none of the medium range models is indicating a dome of high pressure anywhere near California for at least the next week to ten days.
Forecast: Periods of showers through the late evening hours. There will be a fairly high risk of isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. The chance of showers will rapidly decrease after midnight with a few lingering showers possible early Monday morning, mainly in Kern County. Partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. Mostly clear to possibly occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon through Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 62/45/68/50/77 | Reedley 61/46/68/50/77 | Dinuba 60/45/67/49/76 | |
| Porterville 63/46/67/50/78 | Lindsay 63/45/68/48/79 | Delano 63/47/68/50/79 | |
| Bakersfield 63/49/69/54/79 | Taft 65/50/69/56/78 | Arvin 65/48/69/52/79 | |
| Lamont 64/49/69/53/78 | Pixley 63/47/68/50/77 | Tulare 61/45/67/49/77 | |
| Woodlake 62/46/68/49/77 | Hanford 62/47/67/50/78 | Orosi 63/46/67/49/77 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Mostly clear 57/86 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 59/88 |
Friday
Mostly clear 59/88 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 60/90 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 59/91 |
Two Week Outlook: May 31 through June 6: This model is astonishingly showing upper level high pressure finally dominating the pattern over California and off shore. This configuration could actually drive temperatures above average for a change with little, if any, chance of precipitation.
May: As we now enter the dry season, precipitation chances, according to this model, will be that of most Mays, in other words, near seasonal. Nothing too dramatic shows up as far as temperatures are concerned with readings near to marginally above average.
May, June, July: As we move through the late spring through mid summer, precipitation opportunities will be typical, in other words, not very high and that’s especially true for June and July. For this 90 day period, temperatures are projected to run somewhat above seasonal values.
Winds: Winds will be variable to 15 MPH today through this evening with stronger gusts in the vicinity of showers and especially thunderstorms. Along the far west side, local gusts to 30 MPH are possible near the base of the Coast Range. These winds will diminish this afternoon. Later tonight through Monday, winds will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH. Winds Monday night through Thursday will be generally at or less than 15 MPH and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.
Rain: Showers have already reached into most of the valley north of Kern County this morning. The most active portion of the storm will be this afternoon and evening when a pool of very cold air aloft settles overhead in association with the main area of low pressure. If we see any breaks in the cloud deck, thunderstorm formation will be possible which would result in localized heavy rain and small hail. The only good part about this system is the fact that it is a fast mover, so precipitation will rapidly wind down after the late evening hours.
Rainfall amounts from the current storm will generally range from .10 to .33, however where thunderstorms occur, more than .50 could tally up quickly.
A dry week is finally ahead with the exception of the Sierra Nevada which will see scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon through the coming week. The valley, though, will remain dry for the week and if models are accurate will be dry for the following week, as well.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/90% at Hanford. Bakersfield 35%/75%
Actual Humidity May 24, 2019: Delano, 100%/17% Porterville, 94%/21%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 20% Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 10%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.09, Parlier 1.22, Blackwell 1.34, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.11, Orange Cove 1.09, Porterville 1.16, Delano 1.26. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 66, Parlier 66, Blackwell 69, Lindcove, NA, Arvin, 66, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 68, Delano 66
Record Temperatures: 103/40. Average Temperatures: 87/56
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 167 +19
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for May so far: 66.5 -1.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.64 season. or +.61. Month to Date: 2.17 +1.81
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.48, or +1.23. Month to Date: 1.48 +1.32
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:44 am Sunset: 8:09 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:22
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 84 / 57 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 83 / 60 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 87 / 56 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 86 / 54 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 84 / 61 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1655 / 80 / 55 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DHM / M / 53 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1650 / 82 / 61 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 18.32 135 9.22 68 13.61 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 12.98 103 8.17 65 12.62 13.11
MERCED 0.00 13.20 110 7.06 59 12.01 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.39 99 7.22 63 11.51 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.64 106 6.73 61 11.03 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 8.76 90 4.70 49 9.68 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.48 120 3.93 63 6.25 6.47
BISHOP T 8.42 189 1.48 33 4.46 5.18
SALINAS T 13.72 110 7.13 57 12.49 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.87 120 9.62 78 12.41 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.57 114 6.01 44 13.69 13.95
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Next report: Tuesday, May 28