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Forecast

May 28, 2019/report

May 28, 2019

Summary: The low pressure system which brought the highly unusual period of cold weather, thunderstorms, and showers to the valley is now centered over Utah and Colorado.  The valley is sandwiched between high pressure over the eastern Pacific and that low to our east.  This has created a north/northwest flow aloft.  Upsloping against the Sierra Nevada and the Tehachapi Mountains has formed a cloud deck over the entire San  Joaquin Valley based at between 4,500 and 5,500 feet, depending upon location.  Further north, the Sacramento Valley has clear skies.  These clouds will be slow to burn off but will eventually break into partly cloudy skies this afternoon.  The combination of cloud cover and a relatively cool air mass will keep temperatures below average again today even though readings will move into the  mid 70s at  most locations.

 

A weak trough of low pressure will remain over the western states through the rest of the week.  Models are also indicating the formation of an upper low over central California Friday and Saturday.  This will trigger more showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and possibly the Kern County mountains.  This could be a tricky little system as it is conceivable isolated showers and thunderstorms could move off the foothills and into the eastern San Joaquin Valley.  Currently, it appears that risk is quite low.  I put the risk of measurable rain at about 20% or less from Friday afternoon through Saturday.

 

Despite this upper low, models do project fairly significant warming after today.  It’s possible that by as early as Thursday, but more especially Friday, that warmest locations could be teasing with the 90 degree mark, which is about average for this time of year.  For now, triple digits are not on the horizon, although the two week  model is indicating upper level high pressure may move in from the eastern Pacific after about the 4th.  At this point, though, we’ll go with fairly moderate temperatures for late May and early June.

 

Forecast: Overcast this morning.  Becoming partly cloudy this afternoon.  Mostly clear to partly cloudy tonight through Thursday night.  partly cloudy Friday through Saturday with a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms, mainly near the Sierra Nevada foothills Friday and again Saturday afternoon.  Becoming mostly clear Saturday night.  mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday through Tuesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 74/54/85/57/88 Reedley 74/55/85/58/88 Dinuba 73/54/84/57/87
Porterville 75/54/86/57/89 Lindsay 75/54/85/56/88 Delano 76/56/86/59/89
Bakersfield 74/58/85/62/90 Taft 77/58/86/63/89 Arvin 73/57/86/60/90
Lamont 74/56/86/60/90 Pixley 74/55/86/57/88 Tulare 74/54/84/56/87
Woodlake 75/55/85/56/88 Hanford 75/55/85/57/89 Orosi 74/53/84/56/87

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Friday

Chance of showers

58/87

Saturday

Chance of showers

60/90

Sunday

Mostly clear

61/91

Monday

Mostly clear

62/93

Tuesday

Mostly clear

61/94

 

Two Week Outlook: June 4 through June 10:  This model is showing a stronger ridge of upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific and western U.S.  As a result, above average temperatures can be expected with little, to any, chance of precipitation.

 

May: As we now enter the dry season, precipitation chances, according to this model, will be that of most Mays, in other words, near seasonal.  Nothing too dramatic shows up as far as temperatures are concerned with readings near to marginally above average.

 

May, June, July: As we move through the late spring through mid summer, precipitation opportunities will be typical, in other words, not very high and that’s especially true for June and July.  For this 90 day period, temperatures are projected to run somewhat above seasonal values.

 

Winds:  Winds during the nights and mornings will be generally at or less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Friday. Winds afternoons and evenings will be northwesterly at around 5 to 12 MPH.

 

Rain: There is an excellent of dry weather continuing through the weekend, however I cannot rule out a small chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms, mainly near the foothills, Friday and Saturday afternoons.  The chance of measurable precipitation at any given location appears to be less than 20% for now, with the higgest risk being near the foothills.  After Saturday, the weak upper low responsible for the minimal chance of showers will move off the southern California coast, returning a dry forecast to the region for Sunday and more than likely through next week.

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Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 45%/90% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 45%/85%

Actual Humidity May 27, 2019: Delano, 100%/52% Porterville, 98%/59%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 80%  Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 80%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.08, Parlier 1.11, Blackwell 1.33, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.12, Orange Cove .94, Porterville 1.00, Delano 1.19. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 66, Parlier 66, Blackwell 69, Lindcove, NA, Arvin, 66, Orange Cove 65, Porterville 67, Delano 66

Record Temperatures: 107/45. Average Temperatures: 87/57

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 167 +5

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for May so far: 65.8 -2.6

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.79.  Month to Date: 2.38 +1.99

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  7.57, or +1.31.  Month to Date: 1.57 +1.40

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 5:43 am  Sunset: 8:10 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:25

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  84 /  57 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  83 /  60 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  87 /  56 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  86 /  54 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DHM    /  84 /  61 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1655 /  80 /  55 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DHM    /   M /  53 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1650 /  82 /  61 / 0.00 /

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                         T   18.37   135    9.22    68    13.63    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00   13.35   105    8.17    65    12.66    13.11

MERCED                        0.01   13.28   110    7.06    59    12.03    12.50

MADERA                        0.00   11.42    99    7.22    63    11.52    12.02

FRESNO                        0.02   11.87   107    6.73    61    11.06    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    9.50    98    4.70    48     9.70    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.07    7.64   122    3.95    63     6.26     6.47

BISHOP                           T    8.42   188    1.49    33     4.47     5.18

SALINAS                          T   13.80   110    7.15    57    12.51    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   14.88   120    9.62    77    12.42    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   15.68   114    6.01    44    13.70    13.95

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Next report:  Wednesday, May 29