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Forecast

May 29, 2019/report

May 29, 2019

Summary: Temperatures will actually surpass the 80 degree mark this afternoon with warmer locations zooming into the mid 80s.  this is still marginally below seasonal averages.  Even so, a weak trough of low pressure continues to cover the western states as the eastern Pacific zone of high pressure will remain far enough off shore to prevent temperatures from rising to seasonal norms.  We remain under a  northwest flow between the trough over the interior west and that high off shore.  Embedded within this flow are weak disturbances which will continue the likelihood of scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada again this afternoon.

 

To our north, a low center over Washington will drop southward and will be centered somewhere near the lower Sacramento Valley by Thursday night.  even though models picture this as a moisture starved system, the uplifting action of air associated with low pressure will increase the active weather over the  mountain areas.  By Friday through Saturday, the low will be in a position just off the southern California coast.  The counterclockwise circulation around this system will have the winds aloft out of the northeast which could possibly nudge isolated showers and thunderstorms over the valley floor Friday through Sunday afternoons.  The greatest risk will be right along the Sierra Nevada foothills.

 

Finally, once we progress into the Tuesday through Friday time frame of next week, upper level high pressure will begin to shift eastward into California via the eastern Pacific Ocean.  For now, triple digits appear unlikely, but mid to upper 90s seem plausible by the middle to latter part of next week.  A cooling trend will set up once again next weekend as a trough of low pressure enters the Pacific Northwest and northern California.

 

Forecast: Partly cloudy today and tonight.  Continued partly cloudy Thursday through Sunday with a slight chance of isolated showers or thunderstorms, mainly near the Sierra Nevada foothills during the afternoons and evenings.  Mostly clear Sunday night through Wednesday and warmer.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 84/56/88/56/88 Reedley 83/56/87/56/87 Dinuba 83/55/86/55/87
Porterville 84/55/88/57/88 Lindsay 83/54/87/56/88 Delano 84/57/88/58/88
Bakersfield 85/62/88/64/88 Taft 85/63/89/65/89 Arvin 85/59/88/61/89
Lamont 85/60/88/62/88 Pixley 84/55/87/57/88 Tulare 83/54/86/56/87
Woodlake 84/54/86/56/87 Hanford 84/57/88/57/88 Orosi 83/54/86/56/87

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

Chance of showers

58/88

Sunday

Chance of showers

60/88

Monday

Mostly clear

59/90

Tuesday

Mostly clear

63/95

Wednesday

Mostly clear

63/96

 

Two Week Outlook: June 4 through June 10:  This model is showing a stronger ridge of upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific and western U.S.  As a result, above average temperatures can be expected with little, to any, chance of precipitation.

 

May: As we now enter the dry season, precipitation chances, according to this model, will be that of most Mays, in other words, near seasonal.  Nothing too dramatic shows up as far as temperatures are concerned with readings near to marginally above average.

 

May, June, July: As we move through the late spring through mid summer, precipitation opportunities will be typical, in other words, not very high and that’s especially true for June and July.  For this 90 day period, temperatures are projected to run somewhat above seasonal values.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 12 MPH through Saturday with periods of near calm conditions during the night and morning hours.  Winds during the afternoon and evening will be mainly out of the northwest.

 

Rain: The chance of rain for the next few days is very low, however I cannot completely rule out isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly near the Sierra Nevada foothills Thursday through Sunday afternoons and evenings.  A weak upper air disturbance will be overhead Thursday and Friday and just to our southwest during the weekend.  It’s possible showers and thunderstorms could move off the Sierra Nevada and out over the eastern side of the San Joaquin Valley. The chance of measurable rain each day at any given location will be generally less than 20%.  Beginning Monday, a prolonged period of dry weather will set up which should last at least a week if not longer.

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Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Low to mid 50s.  Kern: Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 35%/85% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 30%/70%

Actual Humidity May 28, 2019: Delano, 100%/51% Porterville, 96%/46%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 80%  Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 80%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.06, Parlier 1.08, Blackwell 1.39, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.16, Orange Cove .94, Porterville 1.03, Delano 1.19. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 66, Parlier 66, Blackwell 69, Lindcove, NA, Arvin, 66, Orange Cove 65, Porterville 68, Delano 66

Record Temperatures: 107/45. Average Temperatures: 88/57

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 167 -2

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for May so far: 65.7 -2.7

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.78.  Month to Date: 2.38 +1.98

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  7.57, or +1.31.  Month to Date: 1.57 +1.40

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 5:42 am  Sunset: 8:11 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:26

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  78 /  56 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  72 /  59 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  75 /  55 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  75 /  56 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DHM    /  75 /  59 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  72 /  56 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1700 /  73 /  53 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  74 /  56 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1659 /  73 /  57 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  76 /  53 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00   18.37   135    9.22    68    13.65    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00   13.35   105    8.17    64    12.67    13.11

MERCED                        0.00   13.27   110    7.06    59    12.04    12.50

MADERA                        0.00   11.42    99    7.22    63    11.53    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00   11.85   107    6.73    61    11.07    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    9.50    98    4.70    48     9.71    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.57   121    3.95    63     6.26     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    8.42   188    1.49    33     4.48     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00   13.80   110    7.15    57    12.52    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   14.88   120    9.62    77    12.42    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   15.68   114    6.01    44    13.71    13.95

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Next report:  Thursday, May 30