June 1, 2019
Summary: The center of circulation of a weak upper low is essentially right overhead this morning. Yesterday, heavy thunderstorms broke out over the Sierra Nevada with a few heavy cells over the Coast Range from the Carrizo Plain northward. A repeat performance is due later this afternoon and evening as the intense daytime heating process this time of year gets revved up and destabilized the atmosphere. The result will be thunderstorms in the mountains ringing the valley. Most models now show the low slowly drifting southward to Kern County by this evening. As it does, the winds aloft will be out of the east/northeast which could easily nudge isolated showers or thunderstorms out over the valley floor from midafternoon through the evening hours. The highest risk of measurable rain today will be along the east side, especially near the foothills. They could also drift out along the foothills of the Coast Range near the I 5 corridor. I’d still put the chance of measurable rain at any given location at 20% or so.
The low will be centered over the deserts of southern California Sunday and will weaken. There will be another minimal chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms over the valley floor later Sunday afternoon and evening, but the vast majority of locations will remain dry. By Monday morning, the low will have weakened further and will be centered over southwest Arizona.
Next week, at least the first portion, will be warmer as a flat zone of upper level high pressure stretches from the eastern Pacific and across California with a west/southwest flow aloft. Temperatures by midweek will rise into the mid to upper 90s with even the possible century mark or two. This will not last long, however. By Thursday, a weak trough of low pressure will move inland from the eastern Pacific followed by a stronger trough Friday and Saturday. Initially, there will be a good push of marine air down the valley Thursday with more during the late part of the work week and over the weekend as temperatures again fall to below seasonal averages. We’re into June now, so typically this type of pattern poses no threat of precipitation for the valley floor, but more scattered showers and thunderstorms over the high Sierra can be expected.
Forecast: Mostly clear this morning. Becoming partly cloudy this afternoon and evening with a small chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms. Clearing overnight with mostly clear skies Sunday morning. A slight chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. Clearing Sunday night. mostly clear Monday through Wednesday night and warmer. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday through Saturday with a cooling trend.
Short Term:
| Madera 89/59/90/60/91 | Reedley 90/58/90/60/91 | Dinuba 88/57/89/59/89 | |
| Porterville 90/58/90/59/91 | Lindsay 89/57/90/58/90 | Delano 91/61/91/61/91 | |
| Bakersfield 90/65/90/66/91 | Taft 88/66/89/66/89 | Arvin 90/63/90/63/91 | |
| Lamont 91/63/91/64/92 | Pixley 89/58/90/60/91 | Tulare 88/58/89/59/90 | |
| Woodlake 89/59/90/60/91 | Hanford 89/61/90/61/91 | Orosi 88/57/89/58/89 | |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 63/95 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 64/97 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 61/92 |
Friday
Mostly clear 55/86 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 53/84 |
Two Week Outlook: June 8 through June 14: This model is showing a stronger ridge of upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific and western U.S. As a result, above average temperatures can be expected with little, to any, chance of precipitation.
June: The first month of meteorological summer indicates temperatures will only be marginally above average over northern and central California. In other words, patterns for early summer should be fairly typical. The usual generally dry conditions will prevail.
June, July, August: If this model has any grip at all on the pattern for summer of 2019, it is the fact that it will be a hot one, even hotter than usual. As a more persistent ridge remains over the west and lower pressure over the middle of the country the usual generally dry conditions will prevail.
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 12 MPH through Tuesday with periods of near calm conditions during the night and morning hours. Winds during the afternoon and evening will be mainly out of the northwest.
Rain: Yesterday afternoon and evening, thunderstorms developed along the Coast Range and over the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains. A couple of isolated cells moved out over the valley portion of Kern County. Today will be similar as more thunderstorms break out over the mountains surrounding the valley. A light east/northeast flow aloft could conceivably nudge a shower or t-storm out over the floor, mainly during the late afternoon to evening hours. The chance of measurable rain at any given locations remains at about 20% or so, so the vast majority of locations will remain dry. We could see another round of similar conditions Sunday afternoon. By Monday, the upper low will be far enough to our southeast to return to a dry forecast which will continue through all of next week and more than likely beyond.
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Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Low to mid 50s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/85% at Hanford. Bakersfield 30%/70%
Actual Humidity May 31, 2019: Delano, 96%/40% Porterville, 95%/34%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 80% Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.35, Parlier 1.29, Blackwell 1.57, Lindcove .NA, Arvin 1.49, Orange Cove 1.25, Porterville 1.32, Delano 1.34. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 68, Parlier 67, Blackwell 71, Lindcove, 68, Arvin, 68, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 69, Delano 69
Record Temperatures: 105/44. Average Temperatures: 88/57
Cooling Degree Days this Season: 193 +4
Courtesy of the NWS
Average temperature for May so far: 66.5 -2.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total/average/above or below average:
Since Oct 1, 2018 Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.75. Month to Date: 2.38 +1.95
Since Oct 1, 2018, Bakersfield: 7.57, or +1.30. Month to Date: 1.57 +1.39
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, Parlier, Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 5:41 am Sunset: 8:13 pm. Hours of Daylight: 14:29
Yesterday’s Weather:
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 92 / 61 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 88 / 61 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 89 / 61 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 89 / 62 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 88 / 62 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 87 / 60 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1656 / 85 / 60 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 88 / 57 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1655 / 85 / 64 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 86 / 62 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: Water year Oct 1st through September 30th
24hr Season % L.Y. % Ave. Ave. yearly total
STOCKTON 0.00 18.37 134 9.22 67 13.68 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 13.35 105 8.17 64 12.71 13.11
MERCED 0.00 13.27 110 7.06 59 12.06 12.50
MADERA 0.00 11.42 99 7.22 63 11.54 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 11.85 107 6.73 61 11.10 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 9.50 98 4.70 48 9.74 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 7.57 121 3.95 63 6.27 6.47
BISHOP 0.02 8.44 188 1.49 33 4.50 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 13.80 110 7.15 57 12.54 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 14.88 120 9.62 77 12.43 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 15.68 114 6.01 44 13.72 13.95
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Next report: Monday, June 3