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Forecast

June 4, 2019/report

June 4, 2019

Summary:We will observe a brief look into summer heat over the next 72 hours.  Upper level high pressure is finally building in from the west as that upper low has finally moved into western Arizona.  The freezing level overnight over Vandenberg was 13,100 feet, a good 2,000 feet higher than 24 hours ago.  The high is also suppressing the marine layer which now has a depth of 1200 feet at the naval installation at Monterey.  At Fairfield in the Delta, the winds are out of the southwest at 9 MPH, so no help from the sea breeze through Wednesday.  Hottest locations will move into the upper 90s this afternoon with lower 100s  possible Wednesday at the hottest locations.

 

By Thursday, a low center will be located over southern British Columbia and Washington state, eventually forming a trough of low pressure southward into northern and central California.  This will rapidly deepen the marine layer Wednesday night and Thursday, causing it to surge through the Delta and eventually through other gaps and passes along the Coast Range.  Cooler air will move in aloft.  The combination of all these factors will cause temperatures to lower significantly Friday and Saturday as readings will plummet into the low to mid 80s.

 

This is definitely an “enjoy it while it lasts” forecast as models are aligning for hot weather next week.  This time, upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific and the western one-third of the U.S. will result in hot weather.  I wouldn’t be surprised if, by the middle of next week, we see readings in the 101 to 107 degree range.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Friday.  Mostly clear Friday night through Tuesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 97/66/100/67/94 Reedley 98/67/100/68/95 Dinuba 96/65/99/67/94
Porterville 98/66/100/68/96 Lindsay 97/66/99/67/95 Delano 98/70/100/71/96
Bakersfield 97/74/101/74/97 Taft 98/75/101/75/96 Arvin 99/70/101/71/97
Lamont 98/71/101/71/97 Pixley 97/66/100/68/96 Tulare 96/66/99/67/94
Woodlake 97/67/99/68/94 Hanford 96/69/100/70/95 Orosi 96/65/99/68/94

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Friday

Mostly clear

55/83

Saturday

Mostly clear

53/85

Sunday

Mostly clear

56/90

Monday

Mostly clear

59/95

Tuesday

Mostly clear

63/99

 

Two Week Outlook: June 10 through June 16:  This model is showing a stronger ridge of upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific and western U.S.  As a result, above average temperatures can be expected with little, to any, chance of precipitation.

 

June: The first month of meteorological summer indicates temperatures will only be marginally above average over northern and central California.  In other words, patterns for early summer should be fairly typical.  The usual generally dry conditions will prevail.

 

June, July, August: If this model has any grip at all on the pattern for summer of 2019, it is the fact that it will be a hot one, even hotter than usual.  As a more persistent ridge remains over the west and lower pressure over the middle of the country the usual generally dry conditions will prevail.

 

Winds:  Winds will be generally at or less than 15 MPH through Wednesday and generally out of the northwest afternoons and evenings.  Winds Wednesday night through Friday will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times.  Local gusts to 30 MPH are possible along the west side.

 

Rain: Expect dry conditions for at least the next seven to ten days.

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Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Upper 50s to the lower 60s.  Kern: Mid to upper 50s. Humidity values ranging from 30%/75% at Hanford.  Bakersfield 25%/60%

Actual Humidity June 3, 2019: Delano, 85%/38% Porterville, 86%/27%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 100%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford 1.65, Parlier 1.59, Blackwell 1.79, Lindcove .NA, Arvin NA, Orange Cove 1.66, Porterville 1.62, Delano 1.66. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 71, Parlier 72, Blackwell 77, Lindcove, 71, Arvin, 73, Orange Cove 71, Porterville 76, Delano 76

Record Temperatures: 105/46. Average Temperatures: 89/58

Cooling Degree Days this Season: 217 +14

Courtesy of the NWS

Average temperature for June so far: 77.3 +5.3

Precipitation:  Seasonal total/average/above or below average

Since Oct 1, 2018  Fresno: 11.85 season. or +.71.  Month to Date: .02 -.04

Since Oct 1, 2018,  Bakersfield:  7.80, or +1.52.  Month to Date: .23 +.22

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove,  Parlier,  Arvin, Shafter, Stratford, Lindcove, Porterville,

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 5:40 am  Sunset: 8:15 pm. Hours of Daylight:  14:32

Yesterday’s Weather:

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  94 /  63 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  92 /  65 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  93 /  64 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  93 /  61 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DHM    /  91 /  66 / 0.23 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  92 /  61 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1654 /  89 /  64 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  93 /  60 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1653 /  91 /  69 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  89 /   M /    M /

 

 

 

Rainfall:  Water year Oct 1st through September 30th

24hr             Season        %            L.Y.               %               Ave.      Ave. yearly total

STOCKTON                      0.00   18.37   134    9.22    67    13.70    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00   13.35   105    8.17    64    12.73    13.11

MERCED                        0.00   13.27   109    7.06    58    12.12    12.50

MADERA                        0.00   11.42    98    7.22    62    11.61    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00   11.85   106    6.73    60    11.14    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    9.50    97    4.70    48     9.77    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    7.80   124    3.95    63     6.28     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    8.45   187    1.49    33     4.52     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00   13.80   110    7.15    57    12.56    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   14.88   120    9.62    77    12.43    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   15.68   114    6.01    44    13.73    13.95

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Next report:  Wednesday, June 5